WSA-Enlil with magnetic direction indicators

[Sunshine]

I've quite a few times now seen WSA-ENLIL models with include magnetic direction. However, I can't find them on NOAA, NASA or ESA sites. I find those quite interesting, as (please correct me if I'm wrong) they could indicate when we could see a CIR for example. Can anyone point me to the right direction, please?

[Sunshine]

So, now that I can finally answer my question myself - this models can be found here - I want to dig a deep hole and crawl into it. It's embarrassing really.
 

Many thanks to the admins, the moderators and the many people here, making this site possible for us to learn about space weather and solar science.

[HalfFeralHuman]

If it makes you feel any better, I hadn't realised that was here either.

Anyone know where that model run is coming from? Right now it appears to be predicting the exact opposite to the NOAA one. Does anyone know why?

[MinYoongi]

48 minutes ago, HalfFeralHuman said:

If it makes you feel any better, I hadn't realised that was here either.

Anyone know where that model run is coming from? Right now it appears to be predicting the exact opposite to the NOAA one. Does anyone know why?

What do you mean?

[HalfFeralHuman]

1 hour ago, MinYoongi said:

What do you mean?

I mean here: https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/solar-activity/wsa-enlil.html

The top one's the one on NOAA's website. I'm not sure what the source of the bottom one is. The two are showing very different pictures. My guess right now is that the NOAA one got confused by the backside CME that's apparent on STEREO  ... well we seem to getting something, but it's not exactly looking like the predicted humungous density spike of >90.

What I'm curious about is why they'd be so wildly different if running the same model to get the predictions. Thinking about it I don't know if that are the same version of the model, I just assumed so.

[MinYoongi]

8 minutes ago, HalfFeralHuman said:

I mean here: https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/solar-activity/wsa-enlil.html

The top one's the one on NOAA's website. I'm not sure what the source of the bottom one is. The two are showing very different pictures. My guess right now is that the NOAA one got confused by the backside CME that's apparent on STEREO  ... well we seem to getting something, but it's not exactly looking like the predicted humungous density spike of >90.

What I'm curious about is why they'd be so wildly different if running the same model to get the predictions. Thinking about it I don't know if that are the same version of the model, I just assumed so.

Bottom one is Nasa Enlil.

Just different because they modelled the Farside CME. They update their model more frequently, and even for things not Earth related. Noaa only Updates the CME prediction to predict earth impacts.

[HalfFeralHuman]

4 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

Just different because they modelled the Farside CME. They update their model more frequently, and even for things not Earth related. Noaa only Updates the CME prediction to predict earth impacts.

So I guess NOAA were just playing things safe.... Although I am suprised they didn't re-run the model once it was apparent the bulk of the CME was actually farside though to factor that in. Maybe it's just too difficult to manually correct to be worth the effort. Looking at the STEREO pics it seems super clear to me that the prediction was wrong... I guess they must have had their reasons.

[MinYoongi]

Just now, HalfFeralHuman said:

So I guess NOAA were just playing things safe.... Although I am suprised they didn't re-run the model once it was apparent the bulk of the CME was actually farside though to factor that in. Maybe it's just too difficult to manually correct to be worth the effort. Looking at the STEREO pics it seems super clear to me that the prediction was wrong... I guess they must have had their reasons.

I... dont understand you? Do you talk about the CME that will hit today? Noaa and Nasa are actually predicting the Same. Nasa just updated their model to model other Cme's that happened since then. Noaa hasnt, because they dont need to. (Those cme's are not relevant to them since they only forecast spaceweather that will hit earth)

[HalfFeralHuman]

6 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

I... dont understand you? Do you talk about the CME that will hit today? Noaa and Nasa are actually predicting the Same. Nasa just updated their model to model other Cme's that happened since then. Noaa hasnt, because they dont need to. (Those cme's are not relevant to them since they only forecast spaceweather that will hit earth)

I think you're missing the intensity prediced by NOAA's version. Check the scale on the density graph, That predicted density level is off the charts.

[MinYoongi]

1 minute ago, HalfFeralHuman said:

I think you're missing the intensity prediced by NOAA's version. Check the scale on the density graph, That predicted density level is off the charts.

Its due to the HSS impacting at the somewhat same time. The Model has problems with that. Was discussed here and on twitter already 😅 will be lower than that

[HalfFeralHuman]

1 minute ago, MinYoongi said:

3 minutes ago, HalfFeralHuman said:

 

Its due to the HSS impacting at the somewhat same time. The Model has problems with that. Was discussed here and on twitter already 😅 will be lower than that

Ah... Thanks. I guess I missed that party 😛

[MinYoongi]

Youre welcome! Feels good to be the one able to explain something for once 😀