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How to confirm on whether Kp7?


oemSpace

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Referring to following links, I would like to know on why Bz and Bt are weak with Kp7 (G3).
How to confirm on whether Kp7 would cause a hugh impact or not on Earth?

Kp7 (G3) is coming on 31 Mar.
Bz : -2.27 nT South
Bt : 5.04 nT

Does anyone have any suggestions?
Thanks in advance

3-Day Forecast
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/3-day-forecast

WSA-ENLIL Solar Wind Prediction
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/wsa-enlil-solar-wind-prediction

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40 minutes ago, oemSpace said:

Bz : -2.27 nT South
Bt : 5.04 nT

Where did you get these numbers? We don’t know what the BZ and BT will be until the CME reaches Earth, or more exactly L1 point, only 40 minutes ahead of Earth. 

In a G3 (KP7) storm, the BZ and BT would be much stronger than those numbers you quoted. 

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8 hours ago, Orneno said:

Where did you get these numbers? We don’t know what the BZ and BT will be until the CME reaches Earth, or more exactly L1 point, only 40 minutes ahead of Earth. 

In a G3 (KP7) storm, the BZ and BT would be much stronger than those numbers you quoted. 

Those data were past record, if we don't know them until the CME reaches Earth.

Based on forecast G3 (KP7) for today, would it imply that BZ and BT would be stronger? even through they cannot be predicted.

Do you have any suggestions?
Thanks, to everyone very much for any suggestions (^v^)

 

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3 minutes ago, oemSpace said:

Based on forecast G3 (KP7) for today, would it imply that BZ and BT would be stronger? even through they cannot be predicted.

Yes, KP7 is predicted due to the CME coming our way. Bt and Bz cannot be predicted, so there is no prediction for them. If a KP 7 storm does occur, then you can expect both values to be much higher (teens or above twenty, wild guess)

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2 hours ago, Orneno said:

Yes, KP7 is predicted due to the CME coming our way. Bt and Bz cannot be predicted, so there is no prediction for them. If a KP 7 storm does occur, then you can expect both values to be much higher (teens or above twenty, wild guess)

@oemSpacefor example, check out the data right now, and you will see it is much stronger than it was earlier (the CME arrived as expected, causing that)

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2 hours ago, Orneno said:

Yes, KP7 is predicted due to the CME coming our way. Bt and Bz cannot be predicted, so there is no prediction for them. If a KP 7 storm does occur, then you can expect both values to be much higher (teens or above twenty, wild guess)

With coming KP 7 storm, higher Bt is confirmed, but we get 50% chance to be impacted on Earth with south direction for Bz.

Bz : -5.2 nT south, do we just look at direction for Bz? not strength for impact, correct?

Bt : 16.07 nT, do we only look for strength for Bt? correct?

Do you have any suggestions?
Thanks, to everyone very much for any suggestions (^v^)

 

Edited by oemSpace
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2 minutes ago, oemSpace said:

Bz : -5.2 nT south, do we just look at direction for Bz? not strength for impact, correct?

No, strength is important too, the stronger south the better.

2 minutes ago, oemSpace said:

Bt : 16.07 nT, do we only look for strength for Bt? correct?

Yes, only strength.

Also don't forget about the solar wind speed and density, those are important!
We're at KP5, but if we wanted KP7 we'd need to see most of the plots a good deal stronger.  So far, the storm is not as strong as expected.  That may just be how it is, or the second CME could be lagging behind a bit.

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They all work together, you can't really rank them per se.  Even if one or more is really good, there won't be much aurora if some aren't.  Some are a bit more important than others though.
If I had to pick, I'd say
SW speed
Bz
Bt
SW density

Best way to get a feel for it is just to watch the data over time, especially during storms, such as now.

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19 hours ago, Orneno said:

SW speed
Bz
Bt
SW density

For SW speed and density, I would like to know on what level is usually defined as importance for solar winds.

Do you have any suggestions?
Thanks, to everyone very much for any suggestions (^v^)

 

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7 minutes ago, oemSpace said:

For SW speed and density, I would like to know on what level is usually defined as importance for solar winds.

For speed, 300-400 is normal, 500 is a coronal hole high speed stream or very weak CME, 600 is a weaker CME, 700-800 is a moderate CME, anything higher is a very strong CME

For density, 20-60 is common for a CME. Or very higher in a very extreme event. 

Tip: for answering these questions and getting a feel for values, check out the SWL archive for past geomagnetic storms.  https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/auroral-activity/top-50-geomagnetic-storms/solar-cycle/25.html

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After KP7, weather on earth's surface is getting colder, I would like to know on how solar wind effects weather on Earth and why do temperature drop under this situation?

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Do you have any suggestions?
Thanks, to everyone very much for any suggestions (^v^)

 

Edited by oemSpace
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