Sunspot Prediction

[MinYoongi]

Hey!

I wanted to ask what the most reliable sunspot prediction model is?

 

[Marcel de Bont]

There are no models that can accurately predict when sunspot regions form and decay. All we can say with certainty is that the Sun has Solar Cycles which lasts on average 11 years where sunspot activity peaks at solar maximum and declines to a low at solar minimum.

[MinYoongi]

1 hour ago, Marcel de Bont said:

There are no models that can accurately predict when sunspot regions form and decay. All we can say with certainty is that the Sun has Solar Cycles which lasts on average 11 years where sunspot activity peaks at solar maximum and declines to a low at solar minimum.

Okay. Because i've seen the updated Sunspot Prediction which is.. bonkers to say the least ☺

[3gMike]

1 hour ago, MinYoongi said:

Okay. Because i've seen the updated Sunspot Prediction which is.. bonkers to say the least ☺

The SILSO forecasts are produced using a number of different statistical methods based on data from previous cycles.

If you visit their website https://wwwbis.sidc.be/silso/forecasts you can see a number of different plots, with a description below each plot indicating how it has been generated, and giving an indication of how reliable it may be at different parts of the cycle.

It is unlikely that the Standard curves method is accurate at this stage of the cycle. Look instead at the Combined Curves method for a more likely outcome.

Then take a look at the Monthly mean Sunspot number graph here https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/solar-activity/solar-cycle.html and you will see that it is currently quite similar to the previous cycle - it could yet slow down, as Cycle 24 did, or it may continue to grow. The SILSO forecasts are based on current data, and will be updated regularly as the cycle develops. They indicate a range of possible outcomes, but should not be taken as a prediction of what will actually happen.

[Marcel de Bont]

Op 14/3/2022 om 08:43, MinYoongi zei:

Okay. Because i've seen the updated Sunspot Prediction which is.. bonkers to say the least ☺

I assumed you meant more on a day to day or weekly basis. 3g Mike made a great post. Yeah, there are always predictions out there to make a rough forecast on how strong a solar cycle will be but it is still not something we can accurately do. The Sun and its solar cycle still harbors a lot of secrets that we need to unlock.