Some thoughts on solar physicists

[Tormentius]

Hey everyone, so I just wanted to talk about a trend that I’ve seen among some solar physicists on twitter

Some of them act as you’d expect, providing informative information in a way that a lay person can understand and state facts as they are

However there is one other type that I’ve noticed that I can personally find mildly irritating and that’s those that tend to make hyperbolic statements. There are a few I can think of that fit this category but one above all epitomizes it more than this guy

 

Now I have spoken about this guy before but to recap, he is someone that has said that a cme off the East limb was likely geoeffective and was a cause for concern, that massive filaments could potentially erupt all at once and cause enormous cmes and that filaments directly on the West limb could erupt and be geoeffective

Now he is talking about how a small coronal hole can cause problems for Earth. From what I know about coronal holes, they come on gradually and usually just cause minor storms if that so I don’t see how this could cause a problem . Plus, he mentions at the end of his tweet that it’s narrow so he contradicts himself 

Normally I would write this guy off but he is supposedly a solar physicist and I see other solar physicists who treat him as if he understands what he’s talking about 

So in summary, I am noticing some supposed experts making statements that seem out there to me and I wanted to know what some of you think

[Jesterface23]

A small Coronal Hole High Speed Stream won't last as long as a large one. What we don't know is how long the geomagnetic storm will last. There are factors such as the duration and significance of the dense protons prior to the HHS and does it enter as a SIR or CIR. Then there is the transition from the SIR/CIR to the CH HHS that can be gradual, stair step, or a mix of both. Each of those could last a few hours or even half a day. Depending on the size of the CH and velocities of the HSS, the HHS could last several more days.

When it comes to the potential geomagnetic storms you do want larger CHs for larger storms. CHs can surprise us with unexpected storms or may underperform not resulting in what we expected.

[Quilloz]

I think what he's trying to do is sensationalism. Some people do that in order to get attention. Especially since twitter's one of those sites where if you don't you tend to get swept away rather quickly.

As for Dr. Strong's statement itself, he claims that the storm won't last long. Okay, but how long will it last? That's another problem I noticed. Some purported physicists would rather talk about the storm on a surface level, but rarely go into details about it. Or, if it's a YouTuber, try to use the research as a means to an end or misinterpret it.

I don't doubt that Dr. Strong was at one point a solar physicist (he claims to be retired, btw). But I feel like he probably shouldn't be talking about these incidents if this is the path he's going to go down.

[Christopher S.]

The only time this kind of sensationalism makes sense is when it actually averts problems people using Twitter would care to avert, namely things like incoming meteorological storms. Even then, though, there's tons of unreliable and over-sensationalized takes on Earth weather on a daily basis, so as with all things, do your own research and root out tainted sources of information such as this one. Keith's tweets are not a good source of information.

[Tormentius]

Thanks for all your assessments. I agree 100 percent. I've just noticed this pattern of sensationalism among some solar physicists and it's something that I have to take with a grain of salt. I've actually noticed that Dr. Scott Mcintosh has often done this sort of behavior as well. Every time there is a large cme off the limb, he acts like its such a huge deal and that we would be in trouble if it had hit us.

And in many of his presentations about predictions for the solar cycle, he continuously made claims that we're not ready for a large cycle and made different reasons every time. His reasons include that a lot of scientists think the Sun is slowing down not picking up, which I see no evidence that a majority think this way, that he doesn't believe the power utilities when they say that they're ready and quotes Upton Sinclair as his reason instead of giving any substantive reasons and he claimed that our infrastructure was built in periods of low activity so it wouldn't be able to handle large activity. This ignoring the precautions that have been taken by grids and engineers since the 1989 incident.

And the most shocking admission to me is that, shortly before he published his study that claimed we were getting a large cycle, he was speaking to a scientist who was predicting a small cycle. The other scientist was saying that we should still keep our defenses up and not get lax. Then, Mcintosh said that the really effective way to improve our infrastructure and defenses was by using the fear of a large cycle to push them.

So even if his information is backed up by data, he just admitted that he is perfectly willing to use fearmongering to get certain projects done. While I do think his idea of a satellite that analyzes the far side of the Sun is a good idea, both on a infrastructure protecting basis and for studying the Sun, I can't take everything he says seriously since he admitted that he will use fear to push for certain projects.

Sorry if I went on a little bit of a rant here but this is something that's been bothering me lately and I wanted to get it out there.

[Quilloz]

2 hours ago, Tormentius said:

Thanks for all your assessments. I agree 100 percent. I've just noticed this pattern of sensationalism among some solar physicists and it's something that I have to take with a grain of salt. I've actually noticed that Dr. Scott Mcintosh has often done this sort of behavior as well. Every time there is a large cme off the limb, he acts like its such a huge deal and that we would be in trouble if it had hit us.

And in many of his presentations about predictions for the solar cycle, he continuously made claims that we're not ready for a large cycle and made different reasons every time. His reasons include that a lot of scientists think the Sun is slowing down not picking up, which I see no evidence that a majority think this way, that he doesn't believe the power utilities when they say that they're ready and quotes Upton Sinclair as his reason instead of giving any substantive reasons and he claimed that our infrastructure was built in periods of low activity so it wouldn't be able to handle large activity. This ignoring the precautions that have been taken by grids and engineers since the 1989 incident.

And the most shocking admission to me is that, shortly before he published his study that claimed we were getting a large cycle, he was speaking to a scientist who was predicting a small cycle. The other scientist was saying that we should still keep our defenses up and not get lax. Then, Mcintosh said that the really effective way to improve our infrastructure and defenses was by using the fear of a large cycle to push them.

So even if his information is backed up by data, he just admitted that he is perfectly willing to use fearmongering to get certain projects done. While I do think his idea of a satellite that analyzes the far side of the Sun is a good idea, both on a infrastructure protecting basis and for studying the Sun, I can't take everything he says seriously since he admitted that he will use fear to push for certain projects.

Sorry if I went on a little bit of a rant here but this is something that's been bothering me lately and I wanted to get it out there.

I've said it earlier, but it does bear repeating: I think the reason why they say these things is for attention. leaving aside those who use the sun as a source to fuel their doomsday beliefs (You know, those people on YouTube and sites like that who misconstrue the facts or think that a pole shift caused by the sun is going to "happen soon"). I've seen many a news article about CMEs and this coming solar cycle and they almost always say the same things - "We are overdue for a killshot", "We are underprepared for a major CME blast", stuff like that. And I have to go "Really? Where then where's your proof on this?" To say nothing about tabloids like the Express or Daily Mail.

It's a major failing on their part that they keep doing this. That they think that if they don't act like the world is coming to an end with every solar flare, then they won't get attention. It's a pretty scumbag move on par with those "other" guys on YouTube and the tabloids, but unfortunately the nature of the internet dictates that those who try to speak out in a non-attention grabbing way will be ignored completely. When it comes to people like Keith Strong and Scott McIntosh specifically, they should know better than to act alarmist given that this is (or was, in Strong's case) their job.

[Bedreamon]

So, it's basically like what people are doing now with the long-duration C3.1 flare. It's bad enough when solar enthusiasts post with that "face screaming in fear" emoji, but if we're talking about YouTube solar enthusiasts... oh boy.
But I'd be lying if I said the large, halo CME isn't making me scared. 🙁 Even though the impact isn't until 2-3 days from now, which I think is standard for a mid-tier CME.

Edited March 11, 2022 by Bedreamon

[Quilloz]

4 hours ago, Bedreamon said:

So, it's basically like what people are doing now with the long-duration C3.1 flare. It's bad enough when solar enthusiasts post with that "face screaming in fear" emoji, but if we're talking about YouTube solar enthusiasts... oh boy.
But I'd be lying if I said the large, halo CME isn't making me scared. 🙁 Even though the impact isn't until 2-3 days from now, which I think is standard for a mid-tier CME.

YouTube solar enthusiasts are a whole other can of worms when it comes to sensationalism. I know we focus on the most obvious of these and how questionable they are when it comes to their information. But it seems to be an issue with almost all of them. They're mostly relaying information from sites like NOAA's page or even here, which often are preliminary until verified. To say nothing about some of them act beyond their "observations".