Tormentius Posted March 6, 2022 Share Posted March 6, 2022 Hey guys, so I was checking the forecasts made by NOAA and the Met Office and I noticed something weird. NOAA predicted no new earth directed cmes but the Met Office did. It claimed that there was one that may arrive on the 9th or the 10th. NOAA made no mention of this and Met Office did not explain where this hypothetical cme could have come from. I have checked the imagery and I have seen no signs of any cmes and the forecast was last updated around 13:00 UT. Could anyone explain why the discrepancy in the report? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hamateur 1953 Posted March 6, 2022 Share Posted March 6, 2022 No, but it certainly is interesting. Forgive me please but as an american im clueless as to the Met office. perhaps another american can clue me in? tnx. Mike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3gMike Posted March 6, 2022 Share Posted March 6, 2022 It is difficult to say with any certainty, but the Forecast was published at 13:10 UTC, today, 6th March, so it has to be something seen earlier than that. They do say it is forecast with low confidence. There may be a hint of something on Lasco C at around 07:00 https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/lasco-coronagraph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Vancanneyt Sander Posted March 6, 2022 Solution Share Posted March 6, 2022 If you read the whole metoffice note about the “CME” then you’ll know: Quote Very low confidence, and possibly misattribution in assigning image pairs between Lasco C2/3 and STEREO A COR2. CME cause not observed, but faint ejecta seen heading northeast in Lasco and into Earth sector on St A during UTC morning of Saturday 05 March. CME observed time is approximate, taken as when it begins to appear in St A's FOV. Possible misattribution and low confidence. So that’s a reason for other space weather forecasters not to issue a forecast because the lack of confidence in observations. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3gMike Posted March 6, 2022 Share Posted March 6, 2022 1 hour ago, Vancanneyt Sander said: If you read the whole metoffice note about the “CME” then you’ll know: Possible misattribution and low confidence. So that’s a reason for other space weather forecasters not to issue a forecast because the lack of confidence in observations. Can you provide a link for that quote referring to misattribution please? This link https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/specialist-forecasts/space-weather does not seem to include it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vancanneyt Sander Posted March 7, 2022 Share Posted March 7, 2022 18 uren geleden, 3gMike zei: Can you provide a link for that quote referring to misattribution please? This link https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/specialist-forecasts/space-weather does not seem to include it. https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/CMEscoreboard/ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3gMike Posted March 7, 2022 Share Posted March 7, 2022 35 minutes ago, Vancanneyt Sander said: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/CMEscoreboard/ Thanks - interesting site ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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