Sam Warfel Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 What's going on right now? A CIR, perhaps? We're seeing big spikes in solar wind speed and IMF strength and direction. I'm not seeing massive spikes in density as I would except from a CIR, but it is somewhat high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 I do think it's Flux Ropes interacting with each other, perhaps. This CME is a weird one Btw: I dont wanna go through the hassle of starting a new thread right now (hehe ) But have you seen the 3 recent eruptions on the sun? Not flare related, and 3 pops simultaneously! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Warfel Posted February 11, 2022 Author Share Posted February 11, 2022 2 minutes ago, MinYoongi said: But have you seen the 3 recent eruptions on the sun? Not flare related, and 3 pops simultaneously! the filament eruptions? Yeah, might be some decent CMEs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 Just now, Orneno said: the filament eruptions? Yeah, might be some decent CMEs Do they look geoeffective to you? I do think its filament eruptions, yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Warfel Posted February 11, 2022 Author Share Posted February 11, 2022 Just now, MinYoongi said: Do they look geoeffective to you? the one I saw on SOHO so far could be! It's a best westerly, but the Parker Spiral Effect may bring it around. If there were others more recent, they aren't on SOHO yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 Just now, Orneno said: the one I saw on SOHO so far could be! It's a best westerly, but the Parker Spiral Effect may bring it around. If there were others more recent, they aren't on SOHO yet. I'll link you the tweet i've seen. Here you can see it very well. Im just confused because he states its not geoeffective, but major? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Warfel Posted February 11, 2022 Author Share Posted February 11, 2022 1 minute ago, MinYoongi said: m just confused because he states its not geoeffective, but major? He said “prepare”, he thinks it might indicate something major is coming, although I don’t know why that would be the casw 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 4 minutes ago, Orneno said: He said “prepare”, he thinks it might indicate something major is coming, although I don’t know why that would be the casw Yeah, its hard to wrap my head around that wording. Especially since my mother tongue is german, not english. Because "not geoeffective" could mean theyre not along the sun-earth line, but maybe we will see something major in Lasco/Stereo? UgggHHH, Confusing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isatsuki San Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 22 minutes ago, MinYoongi said: Te enlazo el tweet que he visto. Aquí se puede ver muy bien. Estoy confundido porque dice que no es geoefectivo, pero ¿importante? I think he is trying to say that this eruption could hit indirectly, and since they were almost similar to the cme, it could be a bigger blow than expected or something like that or simply that there could be other types of eruptions like that, 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 4 minutes ago, Isatsuki San said: I think he is trying to say that this eruption could hit indirectly, and since they were almost similar to the cme, it could be a bigger blow than expected or something like that or simply that there could be other types of eruptions like that, That makes sense! Thank you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LunarLights58 Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 Kp5 reached! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KW2P Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 Just throwing in my two cents before something big happens. (You heard it here first, folks!) He says "may not be geoeffective" which leaves open the possibility that they will be. But that's not what I find interesting. Looking at this event, which affects such a large area of the visible disk my first thought was that there were three unstable regions. When one let go, the shockwave triggered the others. But closer observation, watching it again and again, leads me to believe that the simultaneity is too close. A shockwave doesn't travel fast enough to synchronize this. This leads me to wonder if there is a very large magnetic field structure underneath that whole region that's not manifesting as sunspots but is nonetheless there. Maybe such an unusually large region might produce something really big. The SDO image of that region looks strange to me, like a very large rash. Haha. This is pure speculation on my part, of course. 23 minutes ago, LunarLights58 said: Kp5 reached! Wow, that escalated quickly. I looked a short while ago and it was 3. And here I was planning to do some ham radio. It figures that things were fairly quiet while I was asleep. 😡 Hah. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 (edited) This one is a clear CH with the CME ending at around /11 06:00-09:00Z. I was hoping the CH HHS would arrive before work lol. Edited February 11, 2022 by Jesterface23 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drax Spacex Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 3 hours ago, KW2P said: Just throwing in my two cents before something big happens. (You heard it here first, folks!) He says "may not be geoeffective" which leaves open the possibility that they will be. But that's not what I find interesting. Looking at this event, which affects such a large area of the visible disk my first thought was that there were three unstable regions. When one let go, the shockwave triggered the others. But closer observation, watching it again and again, leads me to believe that the simultaneity is too close. A shockwave doesn't travel fast enough to synchronize this. This leads me to wonder if there is a very large magnetic field structure underneath that whole region that's not manifesting as sunspots but is nonetheless there. Maybe such an unusually large region might produce something really big. The SDO image of that region looks strange to me, like a very large rash. Haha. This is pure speculation on my part, of course. Wow, that escalated quickly. I looked a short while ago and it was 3. And here I was planning to do some ham radio. It figures that things were fairly quiet while I was asleep. 😡 Hah. The superposition of these multiple eruptions along the earth directed vector could either be constructive or destructive. Not sure if our models are capable of accurately predicting the resultant of a coincident parallel combination like this. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KW2P Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 25 minutes ago, Drax Spacex said: The superposition of these multiple eruptions along the earth directed vector could either be constructive or destructive. Not sure if our models are capable of accurately predicting the resultant of a coincident parallel combination like this. Yeah, probably not. We have much to learn and while the instruments we have today are marvelous, unimaginable cool to someone who remembers the IGY, we need more satellites, especially ones that orbit outside the plane of the ecliptic, ideally in polar orbits around the sun. This is not easy, of course. My interest in this event is not the event itself or whether it will affect Earth, but that it may indicate something larger scale happening in the sun. Or perhaps it doesn't. Hahaha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solarflaretracker200 Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 4 hours ago, KW2P said: Wow, that escalated quickly. I looked a short while ago and it was 3. And here I was planning to do some ham radio. It figures that things were fairly quiet while I was asleep. 😡 Hah. So I’m not the only one who has the luck of going to bed or sleeping or both or- anyways, and something interesting happening? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Warfel Posted February 12, 2022 Author Share Posted February 12, 2022 (edited) 49 minutes ago, Solarflaretracker200 said: So I’m not the only one who has the luck of going to bed or sleeping or both or- anyways, and something interesting happening? The first G3 since I started monitoring space weather happened while I was asleep, hadn’t even begun when I went to bed, I was mad to miss it. Sometime in Spring 2021 maybe (It was a decently strong CME on the 12 of May, a few days before my birthday) Edited February 12, 2022 by Orneno 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solarflaretracker200 Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 Seems like it happens when sleeping lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KW2P Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 20 minutes ago, Solarflaretracker200 said: Seems like it happens when sleeping lol My mother pointed this mechanism out to me since I was a kid. I grew up in Los Angeles, where it rarely rains. One of my chores was washing the windows. I could make it rain any time I wanted by washing the windows. 😉 In my teen years I started calling it "the inherent perversity of the universe", an expression I've often used my whole life. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Warfel Posted February 12, 2022 Author Share Posted February 12, 2022 17 minutes ago, KW2P said: "the inherent perversity of the universe", an expression I've often used my whole life. Also known as confirmation bias 😉😆 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isatsuki San Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 1 hour ago, Solarflaretracker200 said: Parece que sucede cuando duerme jajaja you sleep when something happens, me by coincidence of life, I wake up when something significant happens, I remember one day I woke up, and then a few minutes later a sunspot launched a class x solar flare, I remember that this happened with the second flare x of this solar cycle, and with the g2 geomathenic storm I woke up moments before the fun began, literally a few hours after the storms began, it is something that seems curious to tell 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tormentius Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 Hey guys, in regards to the three eruptions from earlier, I've noticed that lasco completely skips from around 8:00 to 14:35 so we can't see what happened at that time. Any thoughts on this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KW2P Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 1 hour ago, Orneno said: Also known as confirmation bias 😉😆 Yes, but that's not nearly as funny. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solarflaretracker200 Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 1 hour ago, Isatsuki San said: you sleep when something happens Most of the time it happens at night. I have seen a M2.02 solar flare but missed the M5 flare a few weeks ago which happened at night. Just my luck 😂 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Warfel Posted February 12, 2022 Author Share Posted February 12, 2022 34 minutes ago, Solarflaretracker200 said: Most of the time it happens at night. I have seen a M2.02 solar flare but missed the M5 flare a few weeks ago which happened at night. Just my luck 😂 I saw both of the two X-classes of this SC so far 😏😎 11 hours ago, Orneno said: What's going on right now? A CIR, perhaps? We're seeing big spikes in solar wind speed and IMF strength and direction. I'm not seeing massive spikes in density as I would except from a CIR, but it is somewhat high. Apparently not a CIR. SpaceWeather.com suggests a minor CME that escaped detection, that does seem to be the most probable explanation looking at how the data looks, it looks very much like a CME. Speaking of undetected CMEs, is there a place that back dates imagery from SOHO LASCO coronagraphs may be found? SWL archive does not seem to have it, sadly. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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