Question about CME

[Tormentius]

Hey guys, just had a quick question regarding a cme. So, I was browing the web and I saw a tweet from this scientist talking about a cme.

So at first I went and checked out everyone else in the space weather community that I know of but no one else was talking about this. Then I checked the noaa forecast update and saw this.

The active prominence and subsequent CME that erupted from near the
southeast limb shortly after 08/0600 UTC was analyzed and determined to
not have an Earthward trajectory.

So I'm really confused right now. Normally, I would write this guy off but he is a former solar physicist but he made this tweet only about an hour ago, long after the report which said that this cme does not have an earth directed component. So, what do you guys think?

[Sam Warfel]

17 minutes ago, Tormentius said:

Hey guys, just had a quick question regarding a cme. So, I was browing the web and I saw a tweet from this scientist talking about a cme.

So at first I went and checked out everyone else in the space weather community that I know of but no one else was talking about this. Then I checked the noaa forecast update and saw this.

The active prominence and subsequent CME that erupted from near the
southeast limb shortly after 08/0600 UTC was analyzed and determined to
not have an Earthward trajectory.

So I'm really confused right now. Normally, I would write this guy off but he is a former solar physicist but he made this tweet only about an hour ago, long after the report which said that this cme does not have an earth directed component. So, what do you guys think?

It is not Earth-directed at all. When in doubt, the scientists at NOAA know. That CME was fired from the extreme East limb, CMEs there never hit Earth. For a CME to hit, it must be closer to the center of the sun, or a bit to the west, and the Parker Spiral effect brings it around. Never on the East side.

Secondly, even if that CME *was* aimed directly at Earth, it would not be a cause for much concern. We’ve weathered CMEs much stronger than that one just fine. 

If that person actually is a retired solar physicist, he ought to know better than that. I wonder why he’s making such far-out claims? Probably just for attention. On the internet, the most sensational claims always get the most likes, even if they’re not true. 

Edited February 9, 2022 by Orneno