Sam Warfel Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Anyone know why Saturday’s maximum KP is forecast as 5? What event caused this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
northeastlights Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Looks like the effects from a Coronal Hole High Speed Stream, the explanation below is taken from the 2022 Jan 13 0030 SWPC forecast discussion: Quote Enhanced conditions are expected late on Jan 15 as a recurrent, negative-polarity CH HSS becomes geoeffective. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drax Spacex Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 My guess is in anticipation of a CIR ahead of a CH HSS (where have I heard that before?) from the soon-to-be geoeffective equatorial coronal hole - including enhancement potential from the southern extension. Possibly there's a conservative bias to this storm prediction because of the recent KP5 that was from a CIR that was not predicted. The latest ENIL run I presume is modeling this anticipated CIR arrival and not any CME. None of the recent CMEs seen in coronagraphs were determined to have Earth-directed component. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Warfel Posted January 13, 2022 Author Share Posted January 13, 2022 (edited) 12 minutes ago, Drax Spacex said: My guess is in anticipation of a CIR ahead of a CH HSS (where have I heard that before?) from the soon-to-be geoeffective equatorial coronal hole - including enhancement potential from the southern extension. Possibly there's a conservative bias to this storm prediction because of the recent KP5 that was from a CIR that was not predicted. The latest ENIL run I presume is modeling this anticipated CIR arrival and not any CME. None of the recent CMEs seen in coronagraphs were determined to have Earth-directed component. Yeah I knew no CMEs were coming, I didn’t think of a CIR though because I thought KP5 was a bit high for a CIR, and they are notoriously hard to predict. But I guess we did get to KP5 from that last one… Still, KP4 seems like a more average forecast for a CIR Edited January 13, 2022 by Orneno Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution LunarLights58 Posted January 13, 2022 Solution Share Posted January 13, 2022 This is the CH and it's currently facing Earth directly. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drax Spacex Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 The 2022 Jan 14 0030 forecast discussion sheds light on the reason for the Kp5 forecasts for Jan 15&16: "Enhanced conditions are expected late on 15 Jan and into 16 Jan as a recurrent, negative-polarity CH HSS becomes geoeffective." It was on the previous rotation that this recurrent (persistent) coronal hole resulted in Kp5 conditions with Bz between -10 and -20 and solar winds > 600 km/s on Dec 19&20. So it is a prediction that the same or similar conditions that prevailed when this recurrent coronal hole became geoeffective in the last rotation will also happen this rotation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Warfel Posted January 14, 2022 Author Share Posted January 14, 2022 4 minutes ago, Drax Spacex said: The 2022 Jan 14 0030 forecast discussion sheds light on the reason for the Kp5 forecasts for Jan 15&16: "Enhanced conditions are expected late on 15 Jan and into 16 Jan as a recurrent, negative-polarity CH HSS becomes geoeffective." It was on the previous rotation that this recurrent (persistent) coronal hole resulted in Kp5 conditions with Bz between -10 and -20 and solar winds > 600 km/s on Dec 19&20. So it is a prediction that the same or similar conditions that prevailed when this recurrent coronal hole became geoeffective in the last rotation will also happen this rotation. Ah, makes sense, thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drax Spacex Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 SWPC shoots and they score! Kp5 (G1) conditions reached as they predicted. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Warfel Posted January 15, 2022 Author Share Posted January 15, 2022 5 minutes ago, Drax Spacex said: SWPC shoots and they score! Kp5 (G1) conditions reached as they predicted. Actually, they didn’t get it quite right, we’ve reached G2, and I think the predictions are supposed to be the maximum. Anyway, this had no apparent CIR or CH HSS driving it, it may be unrelated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drax Spacex Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 37 minutes ago, Orneno said: Actually, they didn’t get it quite right, we’ve reached G2, and I think the predictions are supposed to be the maximum. Anyway, this had no apparent CIR or CH HSS driving it, it may be unrelated. True, but they'll give themselves credit for it, at least according to the metrics defined in the SWPC Geomagnetic Activity Forecast Verification document: "The 24 hour geomagnetic storm forecast is considered accurate if a G1 or greater storm event was predicted." Enhancement from a geoeffective CH HSS was what they predicted in the forecast discussion. Why do you say it's unrelated? Because the incoming data didn't match expected IMF, density, and wind speed data signatures for a CIR > CH HSS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Warfel Posted January 15, 2022 Author Share Posted January 15, 2022 33 minutes ago, Drax Spacex said: Because the incoming data didn’t match expected IMF, density, and wind speed data signatures for a CIR > CH HSS? Yes, the typical characteristics of CIR and CH HSS were completely lacking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Spruce Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 1 hour ago, Drax Spacex said: SWPC shoots and they score! Kp5 (G1) conditions reached as they predicted. As just a passive fan of astronomy and astronomical weather ( I hang drywall for a living so I'm no ivy league grad) I don't quite understand the Kp numbers just yet. If I'm reading it correctly, being located in New Hampshire I would need an index of K>4 so theoretically I could see Aurora Tonight with the index at 5....but I don't see any green ribbons of light...am I just reading the index wrong? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vancanneyt Sander Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 7 uren geleden, John Spruce zei: As just a passive fan of astronomy and astronomical weather ( I hang drywall for a living so I'm no ivy league grad) I don't quite understand the Kp numbers just yet. If I'm reading it correctly, being located in New Hampshire I would need an index of K>4 so theoretically I could see Aurora Tonight with the index at 5....but I don't see any green ribbons of light...am I just reading the index wrong? That’s because there is a difference between local K-index and global K-index (Kp). When Kp6 is reached, it means that the global K-index is at 6 because at one of the magnetometer stations a local K-index of 6 was reached. But other magnetometers can have a local K-index of 5 at that same moment. That’s why Kp is only an indicator of global activity and can’t be used when you want to chase aurorae. When you want to go chase aurorae, you’ll need to find a magnetometer station that’s nearby. For example for me in Belgium I use the magnetometer from Sweden to see if it’s worth it. Also, when you need K-4 at your location, it’s likely that it will be visible low on the northern horizon and not in the zenith. And it can be faint and you’ll need to be away from light pollution and no disturbing moonlight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solarflaretracker200 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 14 hours ago, John Spruce said: As just a passive fan of astronomy and astronomical weather ( I hang drywall for a living so I'm no ivy league grad) I don't quite understand the Kp numbers just yet. If I'm reading it correctly, being located in New Hampshire I would need an index of K>4 so theoretically I could see Aurora Tonight with the index at 5....but I don't see any green ribbons of light...am I just reading the index wrong? The moon was out... that could have been why you didn't see it but I don't know 🤷♀️ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No pseudoscience Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Yay, does this mean that there is going to be a second geomagnetic storm in as many days in a row? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Warfel Posted January 15, 2022 Author Share Posted January 15, 2022 8 minutes ago, No pseudoscience said: Yay, does this mean that there is going to be a second geomagnetic storm in as many days in a row? Does what mean that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No pseudoscience Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 (edited) Yay, does this mean that there is going to be a second geomagnetic storm in as many days in a row? (The kp index right now) ((Saturday)) Edited January 15, 2022 by No pseudoscience Clarification of when this was posted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Warfel Posted January 15, 2022 Author Share Posted January 15, 2022 2 minutes ago, No pseudoscience said: Yay, does this mean that there is going to be a second geomagnetic storm in as many days in a row? (The kp index right now) ((Saturday)) Doubt it. KP reached 4, but the BZ seems to be mostly northerly. The hemispheric power has only maxed at like 38 recently, that’s way lower than the 98 from our G2 storm yesterday. (I think something around 60 is average for a G1) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Warfel Posted January 15, 2022 Author Share Posted January 15, 2022 3 hours ago, No pseudoscience said: Yay, does this mean that there is going to be a second geomagnetic storm in as many days in a row? (The kp index right now) ((Saturday)) I was wrong and you were right! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No pseudoscience Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Yay, kp5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LunarLights58 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 3 hours ago, Orneno said: Doubt it. KP reached 4, but the BZ seems to be mostly northerly. The hemispheric power has only maxed at like 38 recently, that’s way lower than the 98 from our G2 storm yesterday. (I think something around 60 is average for a G1) Looks like it's at 60. How about that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solarflaretracker200 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 What the heck. did I miss something? Oh I did- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Warfel Posted January 15, 2022 Author Share Posted January 15, 2022 11 minutes ago, LunarLights58 said: Looks like it's at 60. How about that? How about a G1 storm, then! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now