my thought on the large CME

[farm24]

i have been analyzing the very large CME that was just blasted off the eastern limb and i wouldn't be surprised i fit was a large M class or a small X class flare by how bright it was 

[Sam Warfel]

1 minute ago, farm24 said:

i have been analyzing the very large CME that was just blasted off the eastern limb and i wouldn't be surprised i fit was a large M class or a small X class flare by how bright it was 

SWL sent out some tweets about it, and they said it was probably X-class as well. 

You can view those tweets embedded on page 3 of the topic “more coming”

[Solarflaretracker200]

2 minutes ago, Orneno said:

it was probably X-class as well. 

Sometimes I think the sun does this to make me regret sleeping 😂

 

[Sam Warfel]

25 minutes ago, Solarflaretracker200 said:

Sometimes I think the sun does this to make me regret sleeping 😂

 

Don’t worry, both of the X-flares of this Solar Cycle so far were during daylight hours for you, you won’t miss them all! (Plus, there’s typically about 100 per SC)

[Vancanneyt Sander]

37 minuten geleden, Orneno zei:

SWL sent out some tweets about it, and they said it was probably X-class as well. 

You can view those tweets embedded on page 3 of the topic “more coming”

SWL did not say it was X-class! It was behind the limb so you don’t know the solar flare class. It could very well be a C9 very long duration flare (yes that can also produce a large CME!)

[Sam Warfel]

1 minute ago, Vancanneyt Sander said:

SWL did not say it was X-class! It was behind the limb so you don’t know the solar flare class. It could very well be a C9 very long duration flare (yes that can also produce a large CME!)

Didn’t you say it was “likely X” or something? I did say “probably” in my post, of course we can’t tell for sure at all 

Ah, it was somebody else’s speculation that you embedded not SWL, my bad

[Bedreamon]

If these tweets were to be believed (I don't know where I could find its source. As for the other one, considering he and other scientists made that stronger-than-average cycle prediction, I'm probably gonna believe them/him.), then it's better that the CME didn't fire off in our direction. 😥

 

[Sam Warfel]

Meh, not a bullet, more of a nerf dart. Initial velocities are really high for many CMEs, they slow down dramatically away from the sun. 

[Sam Warfel]

2 hours ago, Bedreamon said:

If these tweets were to be believed (I don't know where I could find its source. As for the other one, considering he and other scientists made that stronger-than-average cycle prediction, I'm probably gonna believe them/him.), then it's better that the CME didn't fire off in our direction. 😥

 

Many large and powerful CMEs that did hit Earth had escape velocities well in excess of 2000 km/s.  And obviously we weathered those just fine.  So a CME with a fast launch speed directed at Earth (if one occurred) is not really a cause for fear or panic. G4 class storms, maybe, but unless you are a satellite operator you probably won’t know or care, unless you are in the business of looking for Auroras, in which case you’ll be very happy. 

[MinYoongi]

15 hours ago, Orneno said:

Many large and powerful CMEs that did hit Earth had escape velocities well in excess of 2000 km/s.  And obviously we weathered those just fine.  So a CME with a fast launch speed directed at Earth (if one occurred) is not really a cause for fear or panic. G4 class storms, maybe, but unless you are a satellite operator you probably won’t know or care, unless you are in the business of looking for Auroras, in which case you’ll be very happy. 

I myself couldnt have worded this better. You're the absolute Gem of this Forum, Orneno. ❤️ 

 

Now back to topic ;  

 

I dont know why Dr.McIntosh is being so fearmonger-y with the "possible".

It was a big CME, but it didnt look like a 2003 or 2012 Event to me. (?)

Edited January 13, 2022 by MinYoongi
Typo

[Sam Warfel]

11 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

I myself couldnt have worded this better. You're the absolute Gem of this Forum, Orneno. ❤️ 

Thanks MinYoongi ❤️

 

11 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

It was a big CME, but it didnt look like a 2003 or 2012 Event to me. (?)

Agreed, it didn’t look that bad. Maybe the hype is because of that filament of plasma ejected with it? (Too close to the sun to see in the coronagraphs). Or, maybe they thought the earlier big CME from that AR would have cleared a path for it, letting it travel much quicker, as in the 2012 near miss, the Carrington event, and some others?

[Vancanneyt Sander]

It was a nice CME with nice plasma going out but that’s it. No need to make fuzz about it as it was on the farside and no data on the strength so who knows what strength it was 🤷‍♂️ A very long duration Minor M (<M5) can also produce this kind of CME… so looking at a CME doesn’t say a thing about the flare itself. The only buzz is that it was a nice shot from the side and we’re looking forward to reveal itself when it turns around the limb.