Making Predictions Better

[SpaceWhiskey]

The question for this topic is: What do we need to make more accurate predictions?

 

I have also noticed predictions have been pretty poor lately. However I think it's easy to appreciate the difficulty in predicting space weather considering the complexities. However as a scientist, my first thought is let's fix it!

 

So what do we need?

 

I am no expert, rather a novice, and my generalized novice hypothesis is that adding more satellites (like DSCOVR) with some pimped out instrumentation, will help us understand how space weather travels (because we CLEARLY need it), and thus give us better predictions.

 

What's your (or your favorite) hypothesis? Think about what we need, and don't worry about if your wish list is not possible at this time. What instrumentation shall we put on each satellite and how many shall we need? Where do we place them? Again don't worry about how much that will cost, and whos hand will place them there, the question is, what do we need, not yet how do we get it there.

 

Now that we know what we need, we can solve the next question, how we get it there. I'm sure people thought we would never get DSCOVR looking at space weather, so I wouldn't get too hung up on the feasibility of having more of them.

 

Cheers!

[Archmonoth]

8 hours ago, SpaceWhiskey said:

I have also noticed predictions have been pretty poor lately. However I think it's easy to appreciate the difficulty in predicting space weather considering the complexities. However as a scientist, my first thought is let's fix it!

Well, what would you consider good prediction? 

 

8 hours ago, SpaceWhiskey said:

I am no expert, rather a novice, and my generalized novice hypothesis is that adding more satellites (like DSCOVR) with some pimped out instrumentation, will help us understand how space weather travels (because we CLEARLY need it), and thus give us better predictions.

There are some new tools heading to space:

LISA - Laser Interferometer Space Antenna -NASA Home Page Scheduled for 2034

James Webb Space Telescope - Wikipedia This new telescope just launched. 

There is a link limit per post, but I assure you there are many more tools being deployed. 

8 hours ago, SpaceWhiskey said:

What's your (or your favorite) hypothesis? Think about what we need, and don't worry about if your wish list is not possible at this time. What instrumentation shall we put on each satellite and how many shall we need? Where do we place them?

A device which can travel inside the Sun and records the inner dynamics. 

 

Edited December 28, 2021 by Archmonoth

[Sam Warfel]

I love to dream about somehow having  a spacecraft like DSCOVR about 12 hours sunward from the Earth between them, so we get exact data on what’s coming like we do from L1, but with way more lead time than ~40 mins.

Orbital mechanics make keeping a spacecraft there right now impossible because it would need a tremendous amount of thrusting to stay, and we don’t have anything that can sustain that for long. Yet…

[Vancanneyt Sander]

12 uren geleden, SpaceWhiskey zei:

I have also noticed predictions have been pretty poor lately. However I think it's easy to appreciate the difficulty in predicting space weather considering the complexities. However as a scientist, my first thought is let's fix it!

See the topic below for a good explanation why this can happen, feel free to join the discussion.

 

12 uren geleden, SpaceWhiskey zei:

So what do we need?

Simple said:

• Replacement of SOHO/LASCO - we still have to wait a few years for the next generation coronagraph to launch and SOHO is already way past it's lifetime
• Replacement of STEREO A and B equipped with better coronagraphs and other instruments for solar wind, placing them at L4 and L5 to save fuel
• Why not a SDO like satellite equipped with solar imager, x-ray sensor at the L3 point 😉 how awesome would that be

[Sam Warfel]

 

7 hours ago, Vancanneyt Sander said:

Why not a SDO like satellite equipped with solar imager, x-ray sensor at the L3 point 😉 how awesome would that be

Could we communicate with an L3 satellite, or would the sun be in the way?

[Vancanneyt Sander]

30 minuten geleden, Orneno zei:

 

Could we communicate with an L3 satellite, or would the sun be in the way?

The sun would be in the way indeed, but if there is a sat at L4/L5 I think that can be the relay 🤔

[SpaceWhiskey]

Absolutely outstanding. This is exactly what I was hoping to hear, in terms of upcoming technology and wish list for spacecraft placement. 

 

I particularly like the idea @Orneno about a sunward spacecraft, that is interesting about orbital mechanics. I suppose that far out, the margin of error would also increase. For some reason I can't help but think a large network of these spacecraft would enhance our understanding. Then, the interaction between various forces could be analyzed over space and time. Perhaps this shotgun approach is inefficient in terms of resources, at least compared to the future tech on the horizon, but it seems like a multi-spacecraft approach would be brute force way to gather more data. Just think, more sensors in more locations.

 

It is good science and engineering to solve these orbital challenges. Perhaps we don't have to think about a spacecraft that matches earths orbit, but instead a network of spacecraft may achieve the same effect mathematically, and ultimately provide even more data points. The implications of such a comprehensive mapping technique would be tremendous. I am suddenly so excided about this idea, I think we will name this project after myself (although I'm sure its already being worked on, but if not, call me!)

 

I happen to feel like this area of research is among the most practical of space research. We may look up in many directions, but toward the sun may be the most important at the end of the day.

[Sam Warfel]

57 minutes ago, SpaceWhiskey said:

A multi-spacecraft approach would be brute force way to gather more data. Just think, more sensors in more locations.

This would do wonders for our problems right now of losing data feeds for a time and left wondering in the dark (especially frustrating when we are waiting on an imminent CME arrival).

[Vancanneyt Sander]

Space weather wasn’t a big thing about 30 years ago and not much funding went into space weather programs and satellites. Until the launch of SOHO we only had some data from TRACE and Hinode if I remember correctly. SOHO changed the world in a lot of ways; it was the first to monitor the sun 24/7 and was the first with coronagraph imagery and solar wind data (though limited to only solar wind speed and density, not IMF). Originally SOHO mission was 2 years, just like the STEREO mission. SDO was also only planned for a 5 year mission.

just to say that all missions we’ve had (apart from GOES) where originally planned for short period of time and only got the funding because they had a few neat objectives to score: learning more about our star and understand it more. None of the missions so far where planned to have a continuous monitoring of the Sun. Apparently missions to monitor space weather a lot more just didn’t get the funding, so replacements of current satellites takes too long and that doesn’t change sadly enough. 

I remember when SDO was planned, we where excited that finally SOHO would be replaced by a far better version and finally no more keyhole periods and CCD Bake-outs. But it missed one crucial component that SOHO did have: a coronagraph. And still we have no replacement for LASCO, yes it’s planned but already we’re years behind. What if SOHO, after a phenomenal 26 years mission, doesn’t work anymore (what device can survive 26 years)? Without LASCO we don’t have a look on CME’s and no good way of telling if there will be a geomagnetic storm coming. Think about that 😉

as space weather enthousiasts we want replacements in time and not when things are about to fall apart. Likely the scientists agree and have begged a lot for sufficient funding but don’t get the fundings of the government to get it up there. Maybe commercial space weather can do something about that, but who’s gonna pay for it then, the space weather enthousiasts?

[Drax Spacex]

14 minutes ago, Vancanneyt Sander said:

What if SOHO, after a phenomenal 26 years mission, doesn’t work anymore (what device can survive 26 years)?

Voyager 2.  Now 44 years and 4 months into its mission, Earth is still receiving Voyager 2 data from its (approximately) 20-watt radio transmitter from 12 billion miles away.  Granted, many of its instruments no longer work.  But still... Fascinating.

[Sam Warfel]

2 hours ago, Vancanneyt Sander said:

What if SOHO, after a phenomenal 26 years mission, doesn’t work anymore (what device can survive 26 years)? Without LASCO we don’t have a look on CME’s and no good way of telling if there will be a geomagnetic storm coming. Think about that 😉

I don’t want to think about that… feels like the Stone Age 

Btw, this topic is probably best suited to the “other” category of the “space weather” forum

[Vancanneyt Sander]

9 uren geleden, Drax Spacex zei:

Voyager 2.  Now 44 years and 4 months into its mission, Earth is still receiving Voyager 2 data from its (approximately) 20-watt radio transmitter from 12 billion miles away.  Granted, many of its instruments no longer work.  But still... Fascinating.

True, but voyager isn’t exposed to solar storms anymore, SOHO is. Will it still survive a S3 radiation storm? That’s why I’m really concerned.

[Flareguy18]

What about ground-based instruments on Earth, such as the new DKIST observatory? It has extremely high resolution images of The Sun, more than anything we have to this date. It's already taken a few images but I don't think it's fully operational yet. I feel like this may be groundbreaking for space weather prediction at some point. https://nso.edu/telescopes/dki-solar-telescope/

[Sam Warfel]

56 minutes ago, Flareguy18 said:

What about ground-based instruments on Earth, such as the new DKIST observatory? It has extremely high resolution images of The Sun, more than anything we have to this date. It's already taken a few images but I don't think it's fully operational yet. I feel like this may be groundbreaking for space weather prediction at some point. https://nso.edu/telescopes/dki-solar-telescope/

The thing is, it’s impossible to do Coronagraphs of the Sun from the ground, and we also need the Solar Wind and IMF data from a spacecraft at L1…