Sam Warfel Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 We’re seeing some minor CMEs puff over the Eastern limb, (seen on SOHO C2 rn) seems to indicate the interesting sunspot groups we’ve already gotten are not the only things to come! I’ll be interested to see what rotates over the limb in the next few days. Coupled with the developing sunspots already on the Earthside, hopefully this will launch some good activity. Fingers crossed. (The title is a parody of the thread and common occurrence of a nice shot in the West, happily this case is much more optimistic.) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solarflaretracker200 Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 I see what you did with the title…Sneaky sneaky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3gMike Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 2 hours ago, Orneno said: We’re seeing some minor CMEs puff over the Eastern limb, (seen on SOHO C2 rn) seems to indicate the interesting sunspot groups we’ve already gotten are not the only things to come! I’ll be interested to see what rotates over the limb in the next few days. Coupled with the developing sunspots already on the Earthside, hopefully this will launch some good activity. Fingers crossed. (The title is a parody of the thread and common occurrence of a nice shot in the West, happily this case is much more optimistic.) Yes, it looks like the Northern hemisphere may be attempting to join the show as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Warfel Posted December 16, 2021 Author Share Posted December 16, 2021 2 hours ago, 3gMike said: Yes, it looks like the Northern hemisphere may be attempting to join the show as well. That'd be nice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Warfel Posted December 17, 2021 Author Share Posted December 17, 2021 M1 flare! A nice shot in the East Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solarflaretracker200 Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 😩 I missed it. Oh well at least it wasn’t a X class. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Warfel Posted December 17, 2021 Author Share Posted December 17, 2021 Slowly the odds are going up! 🤞 But a good Earth-directed M-class flare could also launch a CME that makes great Auroras. It doesn’t have to be X, but those are my favorite. Both of the X flares of this cycle have been out on the limb and not Earth-directed, maybe this time it will be different… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solarflaretracker200 Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 X class lets hope! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vancanneyt Sander Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 24 minuten geleden, Solarflaretracker200 zei: X class lets hope! Currently no region seems to be capable for that. Thus the 5% chance is realistic. Regions 2908 and 2907 are the most complex regions on the disc right now but not yet beta-gamma-delta to get higher odds for X 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 16 minutes ago, Vancanneyt Sander said: Currently no region seems to be capable for that. Thus the 5% chance is realistic. Regions 2908 and 2907 are the most complex regions on the disc right now but not yet beta-gamma-delta to get higher odds for X Do you think, they will develop further? On solen.info i've read something like "Region 12907 [S21E27] was much less active than during the previous days and appears to have peaked in its development." and " New region 12911 [N19E68] emerged with spots before noon and developed fairly quickly. Opposite polarity spots were closely separated near the center of the region and an M1.2 flare was recorded at 00:50 UT on December 17. The region is unstable and further development is likely." I mean, atleast the 2nd one gives hope, but is it possible to predict this kind of behaviour/development? It's hard to find reliable sources. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vancanneyt Sander Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 The evolution of a sunspot region can’t be predicted, it’s a wait and see game. A region that gets quiet can be a sign of no further development or start of decay but that’s not always the case. for example I’ve seen regions that where very complex and ready to explode but lacked a big flare and lacked activity. we can only monitor the regions and hope they develop further. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 3 minutes ago, Vancanneyt Sander said: The evolution of a sunspot region can’t be predicted, it’s a wait and see game. That's what I thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Warfel Posted December 18, 2021 Author Share Posted December 18, 2021 Looks like a couple more pretty active regions are about to rotate over the East limb! I’m impressed, I thought we had a lot going on already 😂 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solarflaretracker200 Posted December 18, 2021 Share Posted December 18, 2021 The sun wants to make SC 25 better then SC 24 🤣🤷♀️ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Warfel Posted December 18, 2021 Author Share Posted December 18, 2021 4 hours ago, Solarflaretracker200 said: The sun wants to make SC 25 better then SC 24 🤣🤷♀️ Here’s hoping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Warfel Posted December 19, 2021 Author Share Posted December 19, 2021 This is a very nice looking CME! Probably not Earth-directed, but still a good one. Is it from the C6 (somewhat long duration) flare? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drax Spacex Posted December 19, 2021 Share Posted December 19, 2021 (edited) 1 hour ago, Orneno said: Is it from the C6 (somewhat long duration) flare? Yes - it was along the east limb just barely on the Earth-facing side - at about the same longitude as the other southern sunspots. Curiously, that region where this flare occurred as seen in HMI Intensitygram images currently has no sunspots (or they are very small or pores) - I only see an H- or X-shaped plage region. There may have been small sunspots that got zapped as fuel for that C6 flare, and replacement sunspots in that region may bubble up to replace them soon. Granted, it is hard to tell whether or not there were sunspots in that location before the C6 flare since it was so close to the limb. https://ibb.co/FJ9JkZV Edited December 19, 2021 by Drax Spacex 1 image=10^3 words Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jeny96 Posted December 19, 2021 Share Posted December 19, 2021 but... if the solar activity increase it couldn´t be danguerous for the comunications? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solarflaretracker200 Posted December 19, 2021 Share Posted December 19, 2021 Not necessarily 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Warfel Posted December 19, 2021 Author Share Posted December 19, 2021 (edited) 50 minutes ago, jeny96 said: but... if the solar activity increase it couldn´t be danguerous for the comunications? only if it became very very strong, which it doesn't, especially for any period of time more than hours. Not even during solar maximum. Edited December 19, 2021 by Orneno 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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