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Calculating the Exact Strength of Solar Cycle 25

Patrick P.A. Geryl

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1. We Just published our paper about the exact strength of Solar Cycle 25 on Researchgate. The Astrophysical Journal almost published it, but then said that every cycle is not the same, while we have one of the highest and one of the lowest cycles in our paper! 


2. The Astrophysical Journal rejected our published paper for the same reasons, while it was right... But Astrophysics and Space Science found it valid.


Therefore we keep trying, bit it will be difficult.

Main points:

1. A new smoothing method (365 days).

2. An exact day for the start of a sunspot cycle... Up until now astronomers use a 13-month smoothed method, that is archaic and leads to months of difference between the SSN and 10.7 flux... Ours doesn't... The basic findings were done by Jan Alvestad, who found that Solar Cycle 25 started on November 18, 2019. More details can be found on his website. He also gives the sunspots in high resolution. This way it is better to see if a sunspot is beta-gamma-delta. For instance he listed 2887 as beta-gamma-delta before it exploded in an X1. 

3. How Solar Cycle 25 can be compared with previous ones in an exact manner.

4. The high of Solar Cycle 25 can be calculated.

5. Why the 'Terminator' is delayed.


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  • 2 weeks later...
7 hours ago, Patrick P.A. Geryl said:



Red: Solar Cycle 24

Blue: Expected solar Cycle 25

Our projection for the strength of Solar Cycle 25 is based on the article above!

1. Delayed 'Terminator'

2. Exact expected strength calculated with 365 days smoothing


Seems optimistic, but it’d be fun if you’re right. 

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