Solar - Geo Magnetic Interaction.

[The Atmosphere Guy]

Try this as a concept for discussion !

One of the “spin-offs” from the extended period of solar quiet that we have experienced in the last few years is that we have been able to monitor and study solar and upper atmosphere behaviour under what might be termed “baseline” conditions, relatively free of the influence of large scale solar impacts.

Arising from this, there is an interesting concept under discussion that is showing up from study of the thermosphere and its behaviour. As we have seen very well demonstrated in this period, the Russell - Macpherron variation in the Thermosphere Climate Index, in response to incoming activity, is clearly defined. What is now being proposed is that this influence may be “two – way traffic”.

To outline the concept in simple terms, if we examine the overall magnetic environment within the inner solar system – among the “rocky” planets – we find that Mercury has a very small magnetic field, approximately 1% that of Earth and possibly resulting from solar field induction; with Venus and Mars having virtually none at all. Earth is therefore the big player in the overall magnetic field structure within the inner solar system environment and the only real independent magnetic source in that environment.

Observing the relationship between the position of Earth, on a R – M basis, and the peaking and easing of Spot and CME solar activity such as we have seen around the “X1” and the “cannibal” flare around the end of October – which activity occurred at precisely the point in time we are considering and which may be more than just entirely coincidental – there is a strong argument for the conclusion that a magnetic interaction, occurring at a point in the orbit when the magnetic fields are appropriately aligned within the heliosphere may have the effect of stimulating and perhaps dampening whatever solar activity exists at that particular point in time. The “Carrington Event” occurred 1-2 September 1859; this too may have been influenced by the leading edge of the autumnal peak, September and October representing that peak whilst March and April represent the weaker spring peak.

Clearly this is a concept which is, to a degree, largely speculative at the moment and a great deal more research is needed. The data is, however, present and is supportive of the concept. We are now entering what should be the steep dive down into the winter R – M dip.

The question is will it occur, just how deep will that dive be and to what extent will sunspot activity remain relatively “simple” during that period whilst undoubtedly increasing in spot frequency.

Some initial discussion on the subject is available here : Solar – Geo Interaction : – A Discussion – How the Atmosphere Works (wordpress.com)  , which may be found interesting.

The Space Weather article on the “Halloween Super Storm” of 2003, and indeed the elevated level of activity over the whole of that year together with the decline in activity over the following decade, had some interesting consequences for the whole of the atmosphere, not just the upper levels. We are increasingly developing an understanding of the level of complexity involved in the whole Sun/Earth relationship.

The article here : SOLAR ACTIVITY and SURFACE CLIMATE. – How the Atmosphere Works (wordpress.com) may be found interesting.

The Space Weather Live item at : Ap & aa Indices and Solar Minimum - Solar activity - SpaceWeatherLive  , had some discussion on the 2003 storm and the period following.

[Archmonoth]

The ratio of size between the Sun and the Earth makes the idea implausible for me. 

 

The magnetosphere extends only 10 earth radii from its center and 200 radii behind, away from the Sun. Magnetosphere - Wikipedia

 

Roughly 1.3 million Earths can fit in a Sun, which means the effect of the Earth's magnetic sphere is very diminished in proportion. This is not accounting for the distance, just size comparison. 

 

The discussion doesn't seem to offer any questions, mechanisms, or details which could be evaluated, other than correlative data, which seems circumstantial. I could be missing something in your post on what sort of discussion there is?

 

Edited November 19, 2021 by Archmonoth

[Christopher S.]

1 hour ago, Archmonoth said:

I could be missing something in your post on what sort of discussion there is?

You're here to gatekeep, and that is not okay, especially if what you're missing is the point... You also indicate plain ignorance to the topic, which is why I'm speaking up about it. Please, stop gaslighting people on topics you're not well-versed in(because you don't understand somebody/something, they/it have/has no point), as it's making this community look really hostile and edgy. It adds 0 value for all of us reading. Go to reddit if your goal is to practice argumentation and test your deduction against somebody else's - here it's to talk about space weather.

I'm holding my thoughts as I check some notes, my job comes first of course, so I'll get back here to share my thoughts on the topic(so help me, if this derails, I'm done trying to have an actual discussion here.)

[Archmonoth]

16 hours ago, Christopher S. said:

You're here to gatekeep, and that is not okay, especially if what you're missing is the point...

I don't think a concept being implausible to me is gatekeeping in any way. I expressed my opinion, and am open to being corrected.

The topic was open for discussion, and I am explaining why something is implausible, to me. 

16 hours ago, Christopher S. said:

You also indicate plain ignorance to the topic, which is why I'm speaking up about it. Please, stop gaslighting people on topics you're not well-versed in(because you don't understand somebody/something, they/it have/has no point), as it's making this community look really hostile and edgy.

Perhaps, I also enjoy being corrected, and have been plenty of times. I would love to be corrected on what I am missing on this topic (Geo Magnetic Interaction). I will obey any rules, but I have no intention of doing anything you say. 

I still appreciate your observations.    

16 hours ago, Christopher S. said:

I'm holding my thoughts as I check some notes...

You seem to have no problem expressing your thoughts and opinions so far. 

[Compuw22c]

22 hours ago, Christopher S. said:

Please, stop gaslighting people on topics you're not well-versed in(because you don't understand somebody/something, they/it have/has no point), as it's making this community look really hostile and edgy. It adds 0 value for all of us reading.

Sooo much this.  I thought I was the only one who noticed it and found it irritating.

I don't mind people disagreeing with me if they can explain their reasoning beyond "Nah, I don't think so"

EDIT:  I like the discussion and the topic, but prefer to keep my mouth shut until I have actual data and/or a deep understanding of something before chiming in.  Always had a deep interest and passion for all things electromagnetism (pcb design, component level repair etc) so I'm mostly here to learn first and possibly add my thoughts if I feel they're useful.

Edited November 20, 2021 by Compuw22c

[Christopher S.]

19 hours ago, Compuw22c said:

Sooo much this.  I thought I was the only one who noticed it and found it irritating.

I don't mind people disagreeing with me if they can explain their reasoning beyond "Nah, I don't think so"

EDIT:  I like the discussion and the topic, but prefer to keep my mouth shut until I have actual data and/or a deep understanding of something before chiming in.  Always had a deep interest and passion for all things electromagnetism (pcb design, component level repair etc) so I'm mostly here to learn first and possibly add my thoughts if I feel they're useful.

Thank you for echoing and expanding the thought.

[The Atmosphere Guy]

On 11/19/2021 at 9:07 AM, The Atmosphere Guy said:

The question is will it occur, just how deep will that dive be and to what extent will sunspot activity remain relatively “simple” during that period whilst undoubtedly increasing in spot frequency.

There’s an old saying, “Prediction is difficult – especially when it involves the future !”; however we have seen the significant quietening of sunspot activity over the period under discussion, reaching a total blank by ninth December. This has been combined with a decline in Thermosphere Climate Index over the same period, although this latter has to a degree been elevated by relatively active Ap index factors during that period. The bottom of the R – M dip should occur around the end of December or early January. A case of wait and observe !

It has also been observed that far side activity continued to be elevated whilst the solar near side was steadily calming. Best assessment is that, having been stimulated, that area of the solar surface remained active beyond the period of influence. Other factors may have been involved but this has not been established.

The key question, of course, is what are the implications at terrestrial level for this mutual interaction – the cyclical sensitivity within solar behaviour which responds to influence from the geo-magnetic field? And that is a very big question.

We know from past records that the Ap environment shows a dip in activity which is not coincident with the dip in spot activity, but which occurs in the years immediately following – the “Spörers Law” years – and that this can have an impact on the terrestrial climate; the “Snowmaggedon” phenomenon being an example. We can also observe a link between aggressive solar impact activity and terrestrial tropical storm activity; there are a number of examples of this on record. STORM ANALYSIS – How the Atmosphere Works (wordpress.com)  gives some data on this.

It is certain that a far greater understanding of the relevance of solar/geo interactivity would give us a far deeper understanding of terrestrial atmospheric behaviour.

May I take this opportunity of wishing everyone a very happy Christmas and a prosperous and scientifically intriguing New Year !

[Archmonoth]

8 hours ago, The Atmosphere Guy said:

...A case of wait and observe !

... Other factors may have been involved but this has not been established.

.... And that is a very big question.

... It is certain that a far greater understanding of the relevance of solar/geo interactivity would give us a far deeper understanding of terrestrial atmospheric behaviour.

Of course a greater understanding would give us a greater understanding.

We don't know what we don't know, and this platitude also tells us there is the possibility there is no or little connection. 

 

Happy holidays to you too, Happy Solstice, Hannukah, Yule, Quanza, New Year! etc. (whatever starts/ends in December)

 

Edited December 9, 2021 by Archmonoth