Earth Facing Quiet

[Hayday]

I guess that theory is dead in the water huh?

Edited November 2, 2021 by Hayday

[Sam Warfel]

What theory, exactly?

[VortexSolar Stephane]

Avec l'éruption X 1.3 qui était pourtant situé en position de connexion ?

[Archmonoth]

18 hours ago, Hayday said:

I guess that theory is dead in the water huh?

For those who don't want to google the theory and wade through sensationalized articles here are the basics: The Sun was unusually quiet in 2013

That's it, nothing else, some people sensationalized the lack of solar activity in infer something catastrophic was about to happen and it didn't. 

Its not a theory in the scientific sense, its speculation. Predictions about the Sun are not 100% accurate because we don't have 100% information. Due to lack of complete information there will always be speculation about the gaps in knowledge to infer the worst or craziest scenarios for clicks/likes.

This is just my impression of it, and perhaps I missed something.

Edited November 3, 2021 by Archmonoth

[Hayday]

On 11/3/2021 at 1:26 PM, Archmonoth said:

For those who don't want to google the theory and wade through sensationalized articles here are the basics: The Sun was unusually quiet in 2013

That's it, nothing else, some people sensationalized the lack of solar activity in infer something catastrophic was about to happen and it didn't. 

Its not a theory in the scientific sense, its speculation. Predictions about the Sun are not 100% accurate because we don't have 100% information. Due to lack of complete information there will always be speculation about the gaps in knowledge to infer the worst or craziest scenarios for clicks/likes.

This is just my impression of it, and perhaps I missed something.

That is part of it, other part was that strong/very active sunspots tend to relax and get weaker once facing earths magnetic influence, and this was a theory some had as to why we don't get hit often with electronics frying levels of ejecta.

[Marcel de Bont]

Op 3/11/2021 om 00:20, Hayday zei:

I guess that theory is dead in the water huh?

Haha yeah I got another one you can add to the list: Grand Solar Minimum.

Op 3/11/2021 om 18:13, VortexSolar Stephane zei:

Avec l'éruption X 1.3 qui était pourtant situé en position de connexion ?

Hello and welcome! Please post in English so we can all understand what you write. Thanks!

[MinYoongi]

48 minutes ago, Marcel de Bont said:

Haha yeah I got another one you can add to the list: Grand Solar Minimum.

 

No but for real, i always thought "Earth-Facing-Quiet" is a real phenomena where Sunspots decay easier or dont produce as much flares.

So that Theory was never really proven? 😮  

[Sam Warfel]

2 hours ago, Marcel de Bont said:

Haha yeah I got another one you can add to the list: Grand Solar Minimum.

Hehe nice, I don’t like the sound of that.  Biggest relief of my life was not living during the Maunder Minimum. 🤣

[Archmonoth]

19 hours ago, MinYoongi said:

No but for real, i always thought "Earth-Facing-Quiet" is a real phenomena where Sunspots decay easier or dont produce as much flares.

So that Theory was never really proven? 😮  

As far as I can tell, it was speculation about patterns, nothing proven. 

23 hours ago, Hayday said:

That is part of it, other part was that strong/very active sunspots tend to relax and get weaker once facing earths magnetic influence, and this was a theory some had as to why we don't get hit often with electronics frying levels of ejecta.

The magnetic field does protect the Earth from solar activity, but I doubt the magnetic field reaches the Sun, or reduces/increases Solar Activity. 

The field only reaches 10 Earth Radii out and 200 radii behind. Earth's magnetic field - Wikipedia

The Sun is about 149 million Kilometers from Earth, so the ability for the magnetic field to change Sunspots is doubtful. (For me anyways)  

 

[Sam Warfel]

2 hours ago, Archmonoth said:

The magnetic field does protect the Earth from solar activity, but I doubt the magnetic field reaches the Sun, or reduces/increases Solar Activity. 

The field only reaches 10 Earth Radii out and 200 radii behind. Earth's magnetic field - Wikipedia

The Sun is about 149 million Kilometers from Earth, so the ability for the magnetic field to change Sunspots is doubtful. (For me anyways)  

It seems awfully far-fetched (literally) to me as well.  Don't a couple other planets (Jupiter, maybe) have magnetic fields as well?  If Earth's can somehow impact the sun, others should as well.

But in the main, Earth is simply so minuscule compared to the Sun, and so vastly far away compared to the relative sizes of the bodies, how could Earth affect the Sun in such a substantial way?

[Vancanneyt Sander]

Indeed the Earth is just a minor dot  we’re only affected by the magnetic field of the sun (IMF) that stretches out to the end of our solar system. If the Earth was as big as Jupiter or Saturn, perhaps it was another story… these vast planets has a bigger influence on objects. 

but on topic 😉: in SC24 there where a lot of moments that active sunspot regions didn’t do a thing when they where in an Earth striking position, much was happening but it was on the limb or backside. In SC23 in comparison we had the so called modern maximum with loads of good times. SC25 is already proving better than SC24 in terms of good Earthward activity, things we’ve missed in SC24. Not that SC24 was so bad but it was disappointing most times and SC25 gives the feel that it’s going to be better. 

you can see it already when looking at the number of geomagnetic storms per year:

2021 brought more storms than the first year after solar minimum in SC24. You can also see SC24 had much less storms and less strong storms. The graph can be viewed on our solar cycle tracking page.

[Drax Spacex]

Sounds like a very slowly moving pendulum, with a period of decades - where that metaphorical pendulum could broadly correlate with Active Longitudes.

[Sam Warfel]

11 minutes ago, Vancanneyt Sander said:

Indeed the Earth is just a minor dot  we’re only affected by the magnetic field of the sun (IMF) that stretches out to the end of our solar system. If the Earth was as big as Jupiter or Saturn, perhaps it was another story… these vast planets has a bigger influence on objects. 

but on topic 😉: in SC24 there where a lot of moments that active sunspot regions didn’t do a thing when they where in an Earth striking position, much was happening but it was on the limb or backside. In SC23 in comparison we had the so called modern maximum with loads of good times. SC25 is already proving better than SC24 in terms of good Earthward activity, things we’ve missed in SC24. Not that SC24 was so bad but it was disappointing most times and SC25 gives the feel that it’s going to be better. 

you can see it already when looking at the number of geomagnetic storms per year:

2021 brought more storms than the first year after solar minimum in SC24. You can also see SC24 had much less storms and less strong storms. The graph can be viewed on our solar cycle tracking page.

I'm sure hoping SC25 is more like SC23 than SC24, since this is the first one I've been watching during!  Although I've been alive since Solar Maximum of SC23, I wasn't aware and tracking the activity through the whole peak of SC24.  Luckily I didn't miss too much, comparatively.  Anyway, I only moved north in 2019 so it would have been much harder for me to see anything without traveling before that.
Here's to SC25, and to bed with the "grand modern minimum"!  Good riddance.
🍻🍻

[Solarflaretracker200]

A year later and the Sun is saying no to this.