Chance for aurora at 11pm?

[Cathy]

Last northern lights were a dud. Looks like it showed up during day here in US. What are the chances that the kp 5 that is being predicted for 10 thru 11pm will still show up. I live in the upper peninsula of michigan.  Or do you think all three cme's came at the same time today?Im new learning about northern lights. Thank you for any responses

[Vancanneyt Sander]

Current conditions aren’t good for a good Aurora show. With IMF being northward zero chances. But as always, anything can change during the night so you can stay up the whole night waiting for the IMF to turn southward again for a prolonged period to get a storm going (nowcasting - for the die hard Aurora chasers). 

[MinYoongi]

31 minutes ago, Vancanneyt Sander said:

Current conditions aren’t good for a good Aurora show. With IMF being northward zero chances. But as always, anything can change during the night so you can stay up the whole night waiting for the IMF to turn southward again for a prolonged period to get a storm going (nowcasting - for the die hard Aurora chasers). 

I hope it will turn a bit more southward too.

Im currently in Denmark and I'm hoping for my first Aurora  

 

[Cathy]

As an aurora newbie how do i know from all the different aurora apps when it starts to go southward?

 

[daniel anderson]

have a question why are the cmes so weak? NOAA predicted G2, but we got G1.

[Jesterface23]

Right here is where you can see if the IMF goes southward,

https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en.html

Page location:  (I think I am at my image limit on here, so I have it there in Google Drive)

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1g1bgRqZSwjfr_tF8zk2jnxDlUlmD40Vs/view?usp=sharing

[Coffissa]

I don't expect to see any thing in Wisconsin.  We have rain coming.  Interesting week with all the Solar activity.  

[Vancanneyt Sander]

7 uren geleden, Cathy zei:

As an aurora newbie how do i know from all the different aurora apps when it starts to go southward?

 

You’ll have to monitor the Bz graph  in the SpaceWeatherLive app you’ll find it when opening the app  

6 uren geleden, daniel anderson zei:

have a question why are the cmes so weak? NOAA predicted G2, but we got G1.

that’s because there are a few things we can’t predict yet. First of all the impact time can’t be accurately predicted and in this case it arrived much later than anticipated so a late impact is often weaker as the CME slowed down more than predicted. Second, the direction of the IMF and its strength still can’t be predicted upfront, so you can’t predict a storm accurately so it happens that it doesn’t meet what was predicted. That’s why we always say that you can only know the real odds for a geomagnetic storm when the CME actually arrives