oemSpace Posted May 21, 2021 Share Posted May 21, 2021 Referring to following link, on stereo A, Plasma density reaches over 15/cm^3, I would like to know on when it would reach on Earth (how many days later?) Does anyone have any suggestions? Thanks in advance https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/wsa-enlil-solar-wind-prediction Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted May 21, 2021 Share Posted May 21, 2021 A guess looks to be around the 28-29th-ish based on the model run. The model run numbers shouldn't be taken as exact values though. With STEREO A closer to us on Earth we are unable to see all coronal holes all around the Sun, so there are limited observations. Each model run will always be different, but it still does give us an idea of when we will be impacted and a possibility of what to expect. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oemSpace Posted May 22, 2021 Author Share Posted May 22, 2021 (edited) so there is a 3-4 days delay between STEREO A AND Earth, it seems a series of coming disturbance at the end of May, Does it look like it? Do you have any suggestions? Thank you very much for any suggestions (^v^) Edited May 22, 2021 by oemSpace Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted May 22, 2021 Share Posted May 22, 2021 (edited) It is possible. We can't quite see the CH yet in imagery. You can see active CH HHSs from SDO's imagery below. The northern and southern pole CHs are good examples for what to look for, but those aren't aimed towards us. https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/solar-activity/coronal-holes.html STEREO A's imagery is below with the latest at the bottom of the list. The imagery is a bit bright so you want to look for dark green close to black areas. https://stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov/browse/2021/05/22/ahead/euvi/195/2048/ Edited May 22, 2021 by Jesterface23 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oemSpace Posted May 23, 2021 Author Share Posted May 23, 2021 Could you please describe more how to interpret Earth's condition in advance based on observing STEREO A's imagery? Do you have any suggestions? Thank you very much for any suggestions (^v^) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted May 23, 2021 Share Posted May 23, 2021 (edited) It should be taken close to the same way as the model runs, but once the CH HSS rotates into view we will actually be able to see the size and position of the region. The model runs will continue to change as this happens as well. Edit: It looks like the coronal hole has rotated into view now near the center of STEREO A's solar imagery. So far it looks fairly small though. Edited May 23, 2021 by Jesterface23 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oemSpace Posted May 24, 2021 Author Share Posted May 24, 2021 Thank you very much for suggestions (^v^) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oemSpace Posted May 25, 2021 Author Share Posted May 25, 2021 (edited) There is a solar storm coming on 26 May visually, under this situation, Bt is still under 15 nT. Is there anything to confirm on whether kp is significant to impact on Earth or not? https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/wsa-enlil-solar-wind-prediction Do you have any suggestions? Thanks, to everyone very much for any suggestions (^v^) Edited May 25, 2021 by oemSpace Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted May 25, 2021 Share Posted May 25, 2021 The current IMF strength doesn't matter much. The total IMF strength of a CME, or CH as well, is completely unpredictable. There are some situations though like powerful CMEs can be assumed to have a stronger IMF, but it is still unpredictable. We would want the Bz component to go southward for a good geomagnetic storm as well which is also unpredictable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oemSpace Posted May 25, 2021 Author Share Posted May 25, 2021 (edited) Even through following items are unpredictable, powerful CMEs (visually) is more likely having a stronger IMF (higher chance), so we get to prepare the impact for the worst case, correct? 1) Strength of CME 2) Direction of Bz component Under this situation, we cannot use strength and direction on forecast at all, We forecast based on visually powerful coming CME to Earth, correct? Do you have any suggestions? Thanks, to everyone very much for any suggestions (^v^) Edited May 25, 2021 by oemSpace Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted May 25, 2021 Share Posted May 25, 2021 That just about sums it up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matt Posted May 25, 2021 Share Posted May 25, 2021 Do you think the May 26th solar storm will be viewable from Oregon? Thanks!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vancanneyt Sander Posted May 26, 2021 Share Posted May 26, 2021 4 uren geleden, Matt zei: Do you think the May 26th solar storm will be viewable from Oregon? Thanks!! Depends on the conditions after impact. When it arrives we’ll have a better look on the actual data and we’ll know then if it’s enough to initiate storming that’s strong enough for your location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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