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Possible solar event(s) later this month?


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I use the aurora app for iOS and on the forecast page it is showing a spike in kp-index from March 12th-21st with it in the 4-5 range a majority of those days. First of all, i have no idea where this app gets its data from and if this is even worth looking at. Could it possibly be based on the alignment of the sun and which part of it is facing the Earth? I was curious, and decided to make a post about it on here to see if anyone has any thoughts, or knows anything about any events forecast later this month.

Edited by LoneWolf96
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I use the SpaceWeatherLive app 😜and there we have several Kp forecasts: short term (up to 3 days, including CME and CH events, updated daily) and long term (up to 28 days, only for recurring coronal holes and subject to change as coronal holes change over time, updated weekly). On our app, we provide help and information with each chart to better understand them.

you can’t predict further than 3 days, everything after that is unreliable. If we had a coronal hole facing Earth, it could return in about 28 days, so based on the effects we had from that hole the prediction is made as an indication of what could happen 28days later. But 25 days later you would see if the coronal hole has shrunk or got bigger and if there is even a chance for a storm three days later. 

CME’s can’t be predicted as sunspot regions evolve constantly so you can only predict a day in advance if a sunspot group can cause solar flares. Not every solar flare has a CME and not every CME is Earth directed so you can only start predicting when they happen and depending on the speed of the CME you can predict a storm up to 3 days after they occurred. 

just to say that space weather is hard to predict further in time.

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