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How acccurate are aurora forecasts?


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Predictions for Aurorae due to coronal holes is forecasted a few days upfront, mostly looking back at the conditions of the previous rotation. So predictions can always differ from what actually happens.

predictions for aurorae due to a coronal mass ejection is 1 to 3 days upfront, depending on the CME modelling and observations of the CME. But as with all CME events, impact times are never exact and can be hours earlier or later. Also the strength of the storm is only an indication of what is expected and with CME’s you only know the real odds when the CME has arrived. You can have a CME impact prediction with a possible G3 but if the impact is very late then the odds for that decline, also you can’t predict the direction of the IMF upfront so it’s always possible the IMF stays dominant northward preventing the G3 from happening. 

conclusion: many times Aurora chasing is nowcasting. Predictions can always be off due to many uncertainties. 

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