Aurora March 1st-2nd

[Sam Warfel]

The forecasts for Aurora activity predicted low activity last night, moderate tonight (1st) and possible KP 5 tomorrow (2nd.)

However, last night we got a surprise G2 storm. Does this affect the predictions for the next two nights?

Bottom line, I sadly missed last night’s storm, and am wondering if there’s any chance for the next two nights, and if so, which is more likely (as far as we can tell now). 
Thanks.

[Vancanneyt Sander]

One thing you learn quickly in space weather is that each CH and/or CME impact can be above or below the predictions that have been made. This G2 surprise is no other, a prolonged period of moderate southward directed magnetic field was enough to make it all go off. 
with the geomagnetic field recovering from last night, more van be on its way if the conditions are in favour for it, but as you might see from current data the IMF is pretty weak and the direction of the IMF is slightly southward preventing a new period of storming.

ps.: as with many possible storms, most of the time it’s nowcasting until all parameters are in the good zone before heading out (especially for middle latitude regions)

[Drax Spacex]

G1 was forecast, but not G2.  After the G2 event, swpc forecast discussion attributed this to "CIR ahead of a CH HSS." It was presumably the CIR , not mentioned in the prior days' forecasts, that gave it the G2 boost.  There is another coronal hole that has moved into the center of the Sun facing Earth, so in a few days we might see another impulsive ramp up from slow to fast solar winds and jump in hemispherical power yielding G-something storm conditions.  I did happen to check this site last night as the G2 was happening - the color-coded alerts by geography for auroral viewing probabilities were spot-on in realtime.  Opportunities abounded last night for much of Canada.

[Madison Gonzalez]

how about the u.s.? was there any chance for aurora in the united states last night?

 

[Sam Warfel]

(couldn’t figure out how to quote the above post)
For the Northern US, such as north of Chicago, KP 6 (G2) storm suggests there should definitely have been opportunities, especially for the more northerly regions, dimmer and northern horizon Auroras especially/further south. 

Edited March 1, 2021 by Orneno
Missed quote

[Jesterface23]

The SWPC has aurora model using observations at the L1 position. https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/aurora-30-minute-forecast

The latest of those images are available here too, https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/auroral-activity/auroral-oval.html.

Edited March 1, 2021 by Jesterface23

[Drax Spacex]

2 hours ago, Madison Gonzalez said:

how about the u.s.? was there any chance for aurora in the united states last night?

 

From what I recall, there was a slight chance for Billings, Montana and Fairbanks, Alaska.

[Kaimbridge]

Or, a couple of other “current conditons” maps:

https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/images/animations/geospace/north_america/latest.png

https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/images/animations/geospace/global/latest.png

Edited March 2, 2021 by Kaimbridge

[Kundalini]

Related?

[Drax Spacex]

1 hour ago, Kundalini said:

Related?

My guess is that's a local phenomenon at that site or a sensor glitch.  The sharp step function-like rise and fall to me implies a glitch, invalid data.  Also, for the same time period, I don't see a similar reading from magnetometers at other geographic locations.