Aurora Dec 9th or 10th

[Sam Warfel]

I’m wondering whether the odds of seeing an Aurora from low latitudes are better on the 9th or 10th. 
All the news articles say 9th, but the SWPC’s storm watches seem to indicate more activity on the 10th. Sadly, I may not be able to look both nights, so I’m wondering which is better. Thanks.

 

[Vancanneyt Sander]

Low latitude aurora is not possible with this CME. Now it has arrived the conditions are only good for high latitude locations, Kp7 is not to be expected.

[Marcel de Bont]

Indeed, like Sander pointed out. The CME is much weaker than anticipated and the Bz direction of the IMF is mostly northward which is bad for enhanced geomagnetic activity. I doubt we will see a significant shift in activity in the hours ahead which could cause storm conditions later tonight but hope I am wrong.

[Sam Warfel]

Yeah, seems like it’s been downgraded too much for us lowliers. Some other storm will come along eventually. 

[Marcel de Bont]

17 uren geleden, Orneno zei:

Yeah, seems like it’s been downgraded too much for us lowliers. Some other storm will come along eventually. 

Exactly, there are till 10 more exciting years of Solar Cycle 25 ahead of us. This was a disappointment but it happens! Part of the chase!