How to confirm on any coming geomagnetic storm ?

[oemSpace]

Referring to following linked images, solar storm is coming on 8 Dec, but there is no high kp forecast on 3-day and 27 day.

Solar Storm is coming on 8 Dec

https://1drv.ms/u/s!AuvJV0hx3xTGiGRrdueBbI8FbMbV

3-days outlook

https://1drv.ms/u/s!AuvJV0hx3xTGiGVJdDOhv07880Ar?e=gMxCGE

27-days outlook

https://1drv.ms/u/s!AuvJV0hx3xTGiGc2QH3D_y_1ejYK?e=SP9L3c

Does anyone have any suggestions on which data is more reliable on forecast about geomagnetic storm?
Thanks in advance

 

[Vancanneyt Sander]

Simple: the IMF is dominantly northward and thus prevents that a geomagnetic storm can occur. 
Not every coronal hole or CME impact will have a geomagnetic storm as it also depends on what direction the IMF will turn. You can have a very nice CME with predicted Kp for the arrival of 7 but after arrival the IMF stays northward and thus no geomagnetic storm will happen. Vice versa is also possible. Space weather is very hard to predict so it’s sometimes not as forecasted so keep that in mind as well. In this case it was just simple as the IMF is dominantly northward.

[oemSpace]

As solar storm is coming toward Earth on 8 Dec visually, it confirmed that some event may come, but due to dominantly northward for IMF temporary, kp-index does not provide any warning at all.  I would like to know on how stable the direction of IMF is to maintain northward, would IMF be easily flip from northward to southward within a second under this situation?

Do you have any suggestions?
Thank you very much for any suggestions (^v^)

 

[helios]

The forecast for geomagnetic activity covers only 3 days (until 6. dec. as of today), so the 8th is not included yet.

Worth reading in this regard is the forecast discussion, published twice a day (covers also usually only 3 days):
https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/text/discussion.txt

(Is it a CME or a sector boundary crossing?)

 

Edited December 4, 2020 by helios

[oemSpace]

The forecast for 27-days outlook should cover 8 Dec, but it still does not show any geomagnetic activity yet.

https://1drv.ms/u/s!AuvJV0hx3xTGiGc2QH3D_y_1ejYK?e=SP9L3c

That forecast was issued on 30. November, I'm not sure know whether they had this on the screen yet.

You can check the latest updated link as shown below, which does not show any geomagnetic activity too.

https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/27-day-outlook-107-cm-radio-flux-and-geomagnetic-indices

Do you have any suggestions?
Thanks, to everyone very much for any suggestions (^v^)

[helios]

Yes, that forecast was the last updated on November 30th.

Quote

:Issued: 2020 Nov 30 0517 UTC

Just keep reading the forecast discussion during the coming days
 

[MinYoongi]

5 hours ago, Vancanneyt Sander said:

Simple: the IMF is dominantly northward and thus prevents that a geomagnetic storm can occur. 
Not every coronal hole or CME impact will have a geomagnetic storm as it also depends on what direction the IMF will turn. You can have a very nice CME with predicted Kp for the arrival of 7 but after arrival the IMF stays northward and thus no geomagnetic storm will happen. Vice versa is also possible. Space weather is very hard to predict so it’s sometimes not as forecasted so keep that in mind as well. In this case it was just simple as the IMF is dominantly northward.

Thanks for the Explanation. 
But a  thing that I dont understand is, i dont recall an earth directed CME or Flare that resulted in a cme. How can the Enlil from Noaa and the one from Nasa/Iswa show a CME shockwave with High density ? Why didnt Noaa talk about that at all? As you know, im a bit of a scaredy- Cat and ofc im worried now when i look at the enlil. Anything to be scared about? Have a great evening! Thanks for explaining in advance

[Vancanneyt Sander]

I haven’t said that there was a CME, I was just making a comparison on what the IMF can do and that predictions often are wrong because of the unknown factor on what the direction the IMF can take. With CH it’s more predictable then with a CME, for example with a sector boundary crossing moving from a positive to negative sector the IMF will turn once the sector boundary has been crossed. 
PS: nothing to be scared of, just normal space weather going on 😉

[MinYoongi]

3 minutes ago, Vancanneyt Sander said:

I haven’t said that there was a CME, I was just making a comparison on what the IMF can do and that predictions often are wrong because of the unknown factor on what the direction the IMF can take. With CH it’s more predictable then with a CME, for example with a sector boundary crossing moving from a positive to negative sector the IMF will turn once the sector boundary has been crossed. 
PS: nothing to be scared of, just normal space weather going on 😉

Thanks for the fast reply and the head up  Its nice to get reassured. I was just scared cuz i saw the "shock wave" and 50+ Density. But if you say thats normal, it is! 
Next year i will be in denmark visiting my family, and i hope i maybe get to see some aurora in the north. Ive never seen Aurora in Germany... It takes like a Kp7-8 for that.   

Just so i can learn ;  The thing i see on the model is not a CME, its a Boundary crossing or a CH? I should go read about boundary crossings.   Do you expect K5+ ? Im pumped for the twitter-community. they never let you down with nice aurora pics.

[Vancanneyt Sander]

What you see in the Enlil model is the Parker spiral, nice isn’t it  . As the sun rotates, the solar wind that escapes through the coronal hole travels through space but due to the sun rotating, it creates a spiral effect what we call the Parker spiral. Coronal holes are common and always have a higher density upon arrival and that’s all normal. 

[oemSpace]

10 hours ago, Vancanneyt Sander said:

Simple: the IMF is dominantly northward and thus prevents that a geomagnetic storm can occur. 
Not every coronal hole or CME impact will have a geomagnetic storm as it also depends on what direction the IMF will turn. You can have a very nice CME with predicted Kp for the arrival of 7 but after arrival the IMF stays northward and thus no geomagnetic storm will happen. Vice versa is also possible. Space weather is very hard to predict so it’s sometimes not as forecasted so keep that in mind as well. In this case it was just simple as the IMF is dominantly northward.

 

Referring to following statement,  I would like to know on how IMF is embedded within the solar-wind plasma, which plasma is a stream of charged particles, what is going on within solar-wind plasma?

"The solar wind is a stream of charged particles released from the upper atmosphere of the Sun, called the corona. This plasma mostly consists of electrons, protons and alpha particles with kinetic energy between 0.5 and 10 keV. Embedded within the solar-wind plasma is the interplanetary magnetic field."

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_wind

Do you have any suggestions?
Thank you very much for any suggestions (^v^)

 

 

[Vancanneyt Sander]

Read our help section on the main site to learn about the IMF

[oemSpace]

4 minutes ago, Vancanneyt Sander said:

Read our help section on the main site to learn about the IMF

Referring to following link, plasma is a stream of charged particles, I would like to know on how solar wind carries Sun's magnetic field during this period, that is missing the details.

"The Sun's magnetic field isn't confined to the immediate vicinity of our star. The solar wind carries it throughout the solar system. "

Do you have any suggestions?
Thank you very much for any suggestions (^v^)

https://spaceweather.com/glossary/imf.html

[Vancanneyt Sander]

Just read the whole help section... the suns magnetic field stretches throughout the solar system due to open field lines from the sun where solar wind escapes. That’s why it’s called interplanetary magnetic field as it stretched out from the sun to the outer parts of our solar system. The solar wind and other particles can escape from the sun along the open field lines and thus forms the IMF

[Vancanneyt Sander]

go to Help on the main site and click on “The interplanetary magnetic field”. So easy... 😉 

[Tristan]

11 minutes ago, oemSpace said:

Could you please post the direct link? I cannot find it

Do you have any suggestions?
Thank you very much for any suggestions (^v^)

 

 

https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/help/the-interplanetary-magnetic-field-imf.html

[oemSpace]

Plasma is a stream of charged particles, if it carry interplanetary magnetic field from Sun, the direction can be changed from Northern to Southern or from Southern to Northern any time between Sun and Earth, would it be correct?

If yes, based on forecast, if the IMF is dominantly northward and thus prevents that a geomagnetic storm can occur before 8 Dec, 2020, can the direction be changed into southward before 8 Dec, 2020? so Kp-index would give alert only with southward direction, would it be correct?

Do you have any suggestions?
Thanks, to everyone very much for any suggestions (^v^)

 

[Vancanneyt Sander]

As it says in the help article, the IMF is a vector, three dimensional with an x y and z. The Z is the direction, that direction can be northward or southward. To induce a geomagnetic storm you need a southward directed IMF. I keep repeating what’s already in the article...

december 8th won’t deliver a geomagnetic storm as the coronal hole is very tiny. Thee will be probably a sector boundary crossing where we move to a negative sector but still, the coronal hole is tiny so I don’t expect much from it

[oemSpace]

16 minutes ago, Vancanneyt Sander said:

december 8th won’t deliver a geomagnetic storm as the coronal hole is very tiny. Thee will be probably a sector boundary crossing where we move to a negative sector but still, the coronal hole is tiny so I don’t expect much from it

I would like to know on how to tell on whether coronal hole is too tiny or not, so Bz is less likely changing to southward directed IMF.

What data would you look at the strength of coronal hole?

Do you have any suggestions?
Thanks, to everyone very much for any suggestions (^v^)

 

[Vancanneyt Sander]

Look at SDO imagery, AIA193 or 211. Look at our coronal hole page on the main site to view those. The tinder the whole, the less solar wind can escape and if it ain’t wide as well then the effects won’t last long. Pretty simple  

[Tristan]

1 hour ago, oemSpace said:

I would like to know on how to tell on whether coronal hole is too tiny or not, so Bz is less likely changing to southward directed IMF.

What data would you look at the strength of coronal hole?

Do you have any suggestions?
Thanks, to everyone very much for any suggestions (^v^)

 

You can see the coronal holes clearly in SDO 193 A imagery. They appear as dark regions in the images. These lack bright coronal fields and allow solar particles to escape more easily into the solar wind which increases the speed of the solar wind and can also increase the strength of the IMF (the solar wind is a plasma composed of charged particles like protons and electrons which themselves create magnetic fields when accelerated.) When the solar wind stream from a coronal hole reaches earth it typically consists of a region of high particle density, caused by higher speed particles from the coronal hole running into slower particles from the ambient solar wind (a bit like a traffic jam.) This is followed by a less dense high speed stream from the coronal hole. both these may have enhancements to the the IMF.

I think the area you are looking at for December 8th is currently visible in the center disk on SDO 193 A imagery as a tiny dark patch. It usually takes around 3 days for the solar wind from a coronal hole to reach the Earth. This is a very small coronal hole though so geomagnetic storm conditions are unlikely. Coronal holes can get very large and sometimes affect Earth for several days, these are very noticeable on SDO imagery.

Also I think that the 27 day forecast is based on the previous rotation (please some one correct me if I am wrong). A lot can change in coronal hole and other features from one solar rotation to the next.

Hope this helps.

[oemSpace]

In the center disk on SDO 193 A imagery, based on a tiny dark patch is shown for less dense high speed stream, I would like to know on how a tiny dark patch (less dense high speed stream) relate to Bz direction, which is less likely changing to southward directed IMF and cause geomagnetic storm on Earth.

Furthermore, referring to WSA-ENLIL Solar Wind Prediction, Plasma density on 9 Dec is close to 50, which is very high and show different interpretation as comparing with SDO 193 (a tiny dark patch). Which one is correct to interpret the strength of coming solar wind and Bz direction?

https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/wsa-enlil-solar-wind-prediction

 

 

18 uren geleden, Vancanneyt Sander zei:

Look at SDO imagery, AIA193 or 211. Look at our coronal hole page on the main site to view those. The tinder the whole, the less solar wind can escape and if it ain’t wide as well then the effects won’t last long. Pretty simple  

For monitoring solar flare, do we mainly focus on 193 and 211 wavelength? which relate to iron atoms that have lost 11 and 13 electrons.

Does solar flare mainly contain of this 2 elements?

Do you have any suggestions?
Thanks, to everyone very much for any suggestions (^v^)

 

a wavelength of 193 Ångstroms (19.3 nanometers) which highlights a spectral line emitted by iron atoms that have lost 11 electrons (also known as iron-12 or Fe XII) at temperatures of 1,000,000 K as well as iron atoms that have lost 23 electrons (also known as iron-24 or FeXXIV) at temperatures of 20,000,000K. The former represents a slightly higher region of the corona and the latter represents the much hotter material of a solar flare. This wavelength also makes coronal holes (which appear as dark regions near the solar surface) more visible.
https://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/3981

a wavelength of 211 Ångstroms (21.1 nanometers) which highlights a spectral line emitted by iron atoms that have lost 13 electrons (also known as iron-14 or Fe XIV) at temperatures of 2,000,000 K. These images show hotter, active regions in the sun's corona.
https://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/3982

Edited December 6, 2020 by Vancanneyt Sander
Removed double sentences

[Vancanneyt Sander]

You can’t predict what the direction of the IMF will be. 
The density won’t be as high as 50, the model is on that point not accurate. Also it’s a tiny hole so I really don’t expect much. Two people are already telling you this...

for monitoring solar flares we use the GOES x-ray flux, the SDO is only used to see the flare in action and to determine if there is coronal dimming or not to know if a CME might be associated with it.

You always look too far just keep yourself with the basics that were trying to tell you since post 1

[oemSpace]

19 minutes ago, Vancanneyt Sander said:

You can’t predict what the direction of the IMF will be. 
The density won’t be as high as 50, the model is on that point not accurate. Also it’s a tiny hole so I really don’t expect much. Two people are already telling you this...

Based on WSA-ENLIL Solar Wind Prediction, Plasma density on 9 Dec is close to 45.  As CME is coming toward on Earth, and current direction of IMF is northern, so kp-index did not show any alert.  If direction of IMF cannot be predicted, then during the path of solar storm from Sun to Earth, there is no guarantee to maintain northern direction as solar storm reach on Earth. Once the direction of IMF suddenly change from northern to southern, then kp-index would trigger alert, correct?

I would like to know on how a tiny hole on SDO 193 A imagery relate to low possibility on changing IMF direction.

Do you have any suggestions?
Thanks, to everyone very much for any suggestions (^v^)

 

 

[Vancanneyt Sander]

What we know is that with a coronal hole, a solar sector boundary crossing will be seen. If the IMF before the arrival has a dominantly northward direction, it will switch southward once the sector boundary has been crossed. That’s the only certainty. With a CME, there is no certainty on what the IMF direction will do, it will be switching between north and south before maintaining a more dominant direction. The direction however can not be predicted upfront, it can only be seen once it arrives at Earth. That makes predictions always very hard, SWPC always plays at safe with the Kp predictions. If a CH produced a G1 in the previous rotation the prediction for its return would be similar (as already been said by Tristan). With CME’s they predict it as good as possible but we can’t predict what the IMF will do, so you could have a Kp6 predicted for a CME and knowing you can’t predict what the IMF will do upon arrival, you can only say upon arrival of the shock what the real odds are based on the data at that point and not upfront.