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NASA's failed prediction for the start of Solar Cycle 25

Patrick P.A. Geryl

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NASA finally stated that Solar Cycle 25 started on December 2019. However, they predicted in December 2019 it would start in April 2020!

In November 2019 we already knew it would start at the LATEST in January 2020... Our article A formula for the start of a new sunspot cycle was published by Astrophysics and Space Science. So the prediction panel clearly failed!

The Belgian astronomers explained it better:


This transition in terms of number of active regions falls in October 2019 = > This is our primary article.

The dominance switched to groups of the new cycle in November 2019 => This is our 365 days smoothed average


More can be found on the website of Jan Alvestad. Also the link to our paper and the 2 other papers on ResearchGate:




Edited by Patrick Geryl
fout new = knew
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  • 2 weeks later...

They would not be surprised. We are talking about an eleven year cycle so sunspot activity will ramp up slowly. Take a look at the data on this page https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/solar-activity/solar-cycle to get a better understanding. Under the Space Weather facts banner, note that the trend over 365 days is indicating fewer spotless days (green arrow).

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