SWPC's Aurora Hemispheric Power

[dynastyll]

On the model that shows the chances of overhead aurora in a certain latitude it says the typical range is 5-150 GW, since we have only had a few G4 geomagnetic storms and no G5s, does that mean that the aurora strength can go over 150 GW or is that the limit of the model. On a few geomagnetic storms the model has gone to 120 GW and one storm nearly reached 130 GW. If a G5 would hit, would that mean the model could potentially hit 150 GW or even more, or is that not possible?

[Christopher S.]

I'm curious to see the data you are referencing.

See this help page: https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/help/the-ap-index

You may be confusing the Hemispheric Power for Ap-index.

See this page as well for the "Top 50 Geomagnetic Storms" https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/auroral-activity/top-50-geomagnetic-storms

[Mace Hornbrook]

I am also curious about this, but also how large and red the auroral ring/oval could expand on the model and how it would look if it were to pass the GW threshhold, is that possible? highest i seen was 65GW :c

[dynastyll]

6 hours ago, Christopher S. said:

I'm curious to see the data you are referencing.

See this help page: https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/help/the-ap-index

You may be confusing the Hemispheric Power for Ap-index.

See this page as well for the "Top 50 Geomagnetic Storms" https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/auroral-activity/top-50-geomagnetic-storms

I'm not talking about the Ap-index. When you go to the main page for aurora, you will see a graph with 2 lines extending from the center labeled hemispheric power. It bows around from 8-20 in quiet conditions and it's an estimate of aurora strength.

[Christopher S.]

Oh, yeah. That graph should extend as the hemispheric power tops out.

[Marcel de Bont]

The hemispheric power can go over 150GW of course. I am not sure how the model handles it however, if there is a cap for the model at 150GW... that I do not know. I think somewhere around 110 or 120GW is like the most I have seen on the OVATION model.

[dynastyll]

7 hours ago, Marcel de Bont said:

The hemispheric power can go over 150GW of course. I am not sure how the model handles it however, if there is a cap for the model at 150GW... that I do not know. I think somewhere around 110 or 120GW is like the most I have seen on the OVATION model.

That's what seemed possible, I'm pretty sure I saw something with the POES aurora model on the July 15, 2000 G5 and it read somewhere around 500 GW so naturally I'm wondering if they used the same measurement. 

20 hours ago, Mace Hornbrook said:

I am also curious about this, but also how large and red the auroral ring/oval could expand on the model and how it would look if it were to pass the GW threshhold, is that possible? highest i seen was 65GW :c

I saw it go up to 90GW on May 14, 2019 but that was during a G3.

[Marcel de Bont]

16 uren geleden, dynastyll zei:

That's what seemed possible, I'm pretty sure I saw something with the POES aurora model on the July 15, 2000 G5 and it read somewhere around 500 GW so naturally I'm wondering if they used the same measurement. 

I guess it should be...? But I am not sure if the model can handle such inputs which would result in values over 150GW. POES was derived from a satellite flying over the poles if I remember correctly.