A Cme headed into our Direction?

[MinYoongi]

Hey Friends! 😄

 

So the CME that took place on the 19th, did someone see it and can do a little "forecast" for me?

I think what Noaa wrote about it is a bit weird. Gives me mixed signals.

Im gonna copy it to here, maybe someone can explain it to me.

as i understood, theyre not confident if its earth directed at all because they dont trust the model?

 

 

"

Model analysis of the partial halo CME that was observed in SOHO/LASCO
coronagraph imagery on 19 Jul indicates an Earth-directed component is
likely, despite its origins in the high latitudes of the NE quadrant and
mostly northward launch trajectory as evidenced in SDO/AIA animations.
Overall there is low confidence in the model analysis. Nonetheless some
component of this feature may very well become geoeffective on or near
25 Jul."

[Maxime Fiset]

It means that they include a wide margin of error in the analysis of the CME.

 

Forecast : impossible to predict if CME material will indeed hit Earth, or more likely how much of it, but judging by its size and velocity, even if it did, it wouldn't do much. Maybe some auroras. I wonder.

Edited July 21, 2020 by Maxime Fiset

[Marcel de Bont]

Also noticed NOAA mentioning it but looking at LASCO and STEREO, it is a very slow CME. Based on STEREO I'd say a glancing blow is possible but the CME is so slow and faint I doubt it is something we will notice if it passes Earth.

Made a very quick animation from a couple of LASCO frames so you can see for yourself.

STEREO: