Have there been changes in the climate produced by the solar minimum?

[DTR]

On 6/8/2020 at 10:13 AM, Jesterface23 said:

I don't much much about the Little Ice Age unless you know a lot more about it. If there is a difference it would be heat and cold vs heat or cold.

Study the Solar Cycles from 1901-02  and 1912-13.   You will see many records of very cold and hot extremes during those periods.   In fact this current Solar Cycle 24 shows a pattern fairly close to that period.  It's certainly interesting to study.   I can't understand how anyone would believe the Sun doesn't control temperature on earth, of course it does.  Thankfully for us the sun seems to be pretty damn constant and it's full 22 year cycle with magnetic reversal is amazing.    

[Christopher S.]

2 hours ago, DTR said:

Study the Solar Cycles from 1901-02  and 1912-13.   You will see many records of very cold and hot extremes during those periods.   In fact this current Solar Cycle 24 shows a pattern fairly close to that period.  It's certainly interesting to study.   I can't understand how anyone would believe the Sun doesn't control temperature on earth, of course it does.  Thankfully for us the sun seems to be pretty damn constant and it's full 22 year cycle with magnetic reversal is amazing.    

What are you considering to be "very cold and hot extremes"? There haven't been any extraordinary events relating to temperatures on Earth in direct conjunction with particularly deep solar minimums. It is not uncommon for there to be records broken for cold and hot temperatures during seasons where the weather allows it. Of course the sun controls temperature on Earth, but so too does the atmosphere of Earth, the temperature of the sea, the jets around the poles, Hadley Cells, the time of year(thus, seasons)... many things. It is one-dimensional to make these claims without regarding the other important factors.

[Aeon]

The oceanic variability and the related volcanic events undoubtedly condition the climatic extremes, however during the low phases of solar activity the variability of the jet stream, also influenced by the phenomena just described, is much more profound.The oceanic variability and the related volcanic events undoubtedly condition the climatic extremes, however during the low phases of solar activity the variability of the jet stream, also influenced by the phenomena just described, is much more pronounced, for example it can go from torrid summers to winters many rigid on the same continent.

[DTR]

10 hours ago, Christopher S. said:

 It is one-dimensional to make these claims without regarding the other important factors.

Of course, it's a complex system with many variables.  But without the sun many of those variables aren't able to happen.   There is so little known, with many unproven theories it just bothers me when someone wants to shut down others ideas just because it doesn't fall in line with their own thinking.  Until it's a Law, everything is just best guesses trying to figure it all out..

 

[Christopher S.]

10 hours ago, DTR said:

Of course, it's a complex system with many variables.  But without the sun many of those variables aren't able to happen.   There is so little known, with many unproven theories it just bothers me when someone wants to shut down others ideas just because it doesn't fall in line with their own thinking.  Until it's a Law, everything is just best guesses trying to figure it all out..

 

The issue isn't "oh this person shuts down ideas that don't fall in line with their own thinking" it's the fact that there is no proposed evidence - no sincere effort on your part to make a point.

The fact that the substance of your stance is that the Sun influences weather, and yet you can't explain how or why that is beyond the simple and known facts that it heats up the atmosphere, is why you're being shut down. You can't emotionally sway those who are scientifically literate without real science.

I encourage everyone to present new ideas. I do not condone speaking in cryptic shorthand about things you don't understand in the slightest.

[DTR]

22 hours ago, Christopher S. said:

What are you considering to be "very cold and hot extremes"? 

I said "Record Temps" learn to read.  The data is there if you look, instead as typical you want to infuse your drivel into the conversation without looking.  In fact many of those established records from that time period,  are still records today.  I've been reading this forum for some time and you are consistently putting people down.  You are the typical Karen in this forum.

[Christopher S.]

Oooh. Hostile now, are you? This attitude doesn't lend itself well to discussing... really anything at all. You've basically presented nothing to read, examine, etc. and yet still insult my intelligence. I really suggest coming up with a thesis for what you are trying to contribute. I clearly have misunderstood at some point.

(And if anyone is being a Karen here, it's 100% you...)

[Jeff Mitchell]

Among many other contentions, I'm troubled by references to 'The Little Ice Age' weather conditions, temperature and behaviour as strong proof of anything. At best there's some evidence that the world was cooler, maybe more extreme, for a while, some places, very Euro-centric.  The Mercury thermometer wasn't even invented till 1714 begging any reliable standardized-measure of earlier temperatures.  World population was 0.68 billion, 50% in Asia/India so where would reliable historical, global reports come from translated to a Judaeo-Christian calendar standard unlikely to have been in use by that majority? Tree growth rings, ice cores and other highly interpretive indirect data?  Never mind where are the meaningful solar data? the month-on-month, year-on-year sunspot activity? (tho' I am impressed that there are anecdotal records of recognition and observation of 'sun spots' dating back to pre-BC times by Chinese observers and subsequent observation approaching a data set of possible merit)   The 'Jet Stream??'  Earliest hints such a concept even existed were tracking of Krakatoa's effects after 1833 (an equatorial smoke stream), the idea only got a name in 1939 and more support thanks to WW2 bomber flights that it even existed so I doubt any reliable data exists whenever the Little Ice Age existed.  El Nina/o events?  Looks like Ben Franklin gets credit for the first ocean temp measurement anywhere, in the late 1800s so that suggests virtually NO data prior, aside from local sailors noting variations that affected them. Hardly reliable global data, because that seems to be what some people are proposing.

I applaud Citizen Science, don't stop and don't give up but please realize the exacting standards of proof in a VERY complex world at an instant in time.  Acknowledge the extreme thoroughness required. Your Ouija Board needs to do far better than predicting 20, even 1000 coin tosses. Ask questions first, even simple conclusive statements may take a life-time to prove. And remove all your emotion from the pursuit except perhaps a passion for truth.

[The Atmosphere Guy]

Cynics in the trade will often say that the most common discipline in research is “Pure and Applied Guesstronomy” and Copernicus’ first law “ Never accept the established view” the most popular concept. Be that as it may!

It is disappointing to note that NOAA/SWPC, Boulder Co.,  are to discontinue – with effect from 1^st July – the older, legacy, versions of the Solar Progression charts. The “Ap” progression was particularly valuable in assessing any Solar/Terrestrial interaction.

Perhaps we should provide an independent continued record.

Sunspot and 10.7 Flux charts have their value in this area but as has been said, the existence of a sunspot does not imply any terrestrial impact or influence, just as the absence of spots does not imply the absence of impact. The “Ap” is a far better indicator of that which is hitting the planet and it is often possible to cross reference a surface weather condition or event to the "Ap" chart.

The “Ap” index was only started in 1932, to go back further we need to use the “aa” index: The weather events of 1901/2 and 1912/13 have been mentioned, we can see from the chart that these were coincident with a deep dip in “aa” values.

Of particular interest is the sudden anomalous dip in 2009 which has been noted as coincident with a very similar dip in upper atmosphere values. (Emmert et al.)

If we examine the more recent charts, we begin to see some remarkable correspondences with the infamous “European heat wave of 2003” and the severe European winters of 2009/12 and also with the severe hurricane season of 2017 being of particular interest. The downshift of October 2005 is clearly apparent as is the shift in apparent median values.

Of more immediate interest is the potential for continued decline over the coming months consistent with an anticipated Russell-MacPherron dip around December this year. The peaks and troughs associated with this phenomenon are, although not absolutely consistent, clearly visible in the charts.

https://howtheatmosphereworks.wordpress.com/ap-index-historical-analysis/  provides some discussion in this area.

Anyone may, of course, study these charts and form their own conclusions.

 

[Aeon]

Can you assert that the current anomalous configuration of the Jet Current is not the same that occurred in that period?
"Little Ice Age" is a misleading term, however it was coined in this way to describe a period relatively dominated by harsh winters, as the attention was focused only on them, but not on the severe heat waves of the period.
Certainly the Jet Stream was discovered only later, however its irregular impact on the climate of the northern and southern hemisphere is extremely documented during that period, between exceptional torrid and dry periods, high pressure, and cold or rainy periods, low pressure .
It is interesting to note that not only has it been behaving similarly today, but it has been doing so since solar cycles have been in a downward trend from the 1960s in unison with the cooling of the thermosphere, mesosphere and stratosphere.

https://urbancoldspots.blogspot.com/2020/04/eta-oscura.html

@The Atmosphere GuyPerhaps the mercury hadn't been discovered before a certain date.
However, when at certain times the Dutch seas froze, or the wine froze in the barrels, or the Thames was covered with ice, the temperatures certainly were not -2 C.
Just as during the months of 1666 they did not have to have temperatures of only 25 C, to make the territory fertile for a fire of that size, despite the fact that the houses were mainly wooden.

What I did not understand, in what way the second peak of cycle 23 would be connected with the heat wave in Europe of 2003.
This cause-and-effect is not entirely clear to me.
 

[The Atmosphere Guy]

36 minutes ago, Aeon said:

What I did not understand, in what way the second peak of cycle 23 would be connected with the heat wave in Europe of 2003.
This cause-and-effect is not entirely clear to me.

The key principle here is the expansion and contraction of the upper atmosphere. As this happens, the "Steering Level" isobars are pushed and pulled to abnormal latitudes for the time of year, for the season.

Cyclonic activity steered by those isobars can then drag hot tropical - or conversely cold polar - surface air to latitudes unusual for that time of year. The result being that the surface experiences heat waves, as in 2003, (the main consideration in 2003 was the extreme "Ap" impacts over the whole year culminating in the super-spike, the "Halloween Super Storm" of that year) or extreme polar cold as in 2010. (apologies for being a bit "Eurocentric")

This can give rise to the effects noted by others in that both heat and cold can be experienced; for example if the steering level is closer to the equator, cyclonic lows can both pull polar air towards the equator and dig deeper into tropical zones throwing tropical air poleward. During periods of low activity and low turbulence, these situations can become more fixed as the sea/land differential locks the jet streams into unusually rigid configurations giving a highly repetitive overall structure. Effectively what you have is what you keep and that in turn locks in the temperature structure exacerbating the temperature differential and making the whole structure even more rigid and repetitive. Difficult to explain but if you examine the charts you may see the effect.

A separate consideration is that if large masses of tropical heat are thrown poleward repeatedly, entropic considerations will ensure that it is eventually lost (CO2 or not) increasing planetary overall heat loss over the long term.

Hope that helps!

[goldminor]

2 hours ago, Aeon said:

What I did not understand, in what way the second peak of cycle 23 would be connected with the heat wave in Europe of 2003.
This cause-and-effect is not entirely clear to me.
 

Here is how I would explain it using my solar/enso/atmosphere concept. At the beginning of 2002 excess sunspots are in the southern hemisphere. Approximately 4 months after that the MEI shows that a strong El Nino develops in the 3.4 region. Coinciding with all of that Silso shows a rapid rise in sunspots from a low which is close to minimum point in early 2003 (Feb/March) to a peak above 150 by May/June. I would bet that this is the cause of the European heatwave. ...

1 hour ago, The Atmosphere Guy said:

 

2 hours ago, Aeon said:

What I did not understand, in what way the second peak of cycle 23 would be connected with the heat wave in Europe of 2003.
This cause-and-effect is not entirely clear to me.
 

Here is a second example of a similar episode. In this case a heat wave (experienced by me at age 7) which took place in Northern California. This occurs in the summer of 1957 during the cool trend from 1946/47 to 1976/77. The year 1957 sees sunspots soar to an all time max. Note that slim sliver of red on Silso's chart above. In the 3.4 region a negative ENSO gives way to a a strong El Nino as excess sunspots shift into the southern hemisphere in late 1956. Once again note the lag between the shift in sunspots and the MEI showing the change to positive values. The end result is a scorcher of a summer in Northern California with weeks of triple digit temps, peak temps may have been 117 F. Amazingly, all records of that heat wave are lost to time for some reason.

Note how excess sunspots revert back to the north in the late 1950s which sets up deep drops in temps in the 3.4 region, and the cold spell of the 1960s.

[Aeon]

I find all this particularly interesting.
Such effects have not been hypothesized, being a new topic for me.
There may also be a correlation.
Thank you both for the excellent explanation and the examples shown.
I had always thought that the heat wave of 2003 and its duration up to the Carrington x45 flare was more of a coincidence but due to the lack of data I could not draw a conclusion.

[The Atmosphere Guy]

Thank you for your complimentary feedback, it is appreciated.

I can only recommend that you browse through the whole https://howtheatmosphereworks.wordpress.com/ website: There may be information and concepts expressed there that you may find informative, constructive feedback and intelligent discussion is always welcome there. Whatever you can add to the discussion will only expand the understanding of the subject. The knowledge we have is expanding faster than can be written, the data is outdated almost as soon as it is expressed.

[goldminor]

@ The Atmosphere Guy ... That looks very interesting, and useful for me. I could use a good overview such as yours to help me round out my thoughts. I have been reading/thinking climate related material since the second half of 2008. I started on this path knowing next to nothing about the workings of the many interacting parts which form the climate of our planet. I stuck with it through all of these years because of one tiny fragment of knowledge of a possible Pacific Northwest solar induced flood cycle. I knew of this because I loved fishing, especially fishing for steelhead in the rivers and streams of Northern California. So when I saw a sunspot chart for the very first time around late 2008 it only took my inner mind around 3 or 4 seconds to realize that the two major West Coast floods of 1955/56 and 1964/65 occurred during the solar minimum, and that forever hooked me on spending the remainder of my life following this trail. The concept of mine mentioned above is where the path led me to over the last 12 years.

 

[goldminor]

Speaking of a changing climate, Iceland just got hit with a powerful 5.7 quake and several other above 5.0 quakes. Along with a swarm of over 500 quakes today, ... https://earthquake-report.com/2020/06/20/moderate-earthquake-iceland-region-june-20-2020/

An Icelandic volcano could change the climate.

[goldminor]

On 6/20/2020 at 5:29 PM, goldminor said:

Speaking of a changing climate, Iceland just got hit with a powerful 5.7 quake and several other above 5.0 quakes. Along with a swarm of over 500 quakes today, ... https://earthquake-report.com/2020/06/20/moderate-earthquake-iceland-region-june-20-2020/

An Icelandic volcano could change the climate.

Iceland was hit with a 6.0 about 5 hours ago along with 4 lesser quakes. History does show that large eruptions often go hand in hand with a solar cool trend/gsm.  A large eruption at this point in time could be the type of natural event which initiates a grand solar minimum, when it coincides with a solar cooling trend. That could be the difference between a 15+ year cool trend, and a 30+ year deeper cool trend.