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Solar Cycle 25 Forecast by "theartist"


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Back in July, I made the following statement over on the thread titled, "Solar Cycle 25 Predictions/Forecasts by 1. 'The Panel' & 2. NASA", 

"As I learn more and more about this field of study, one of the most confounding things is why the issue of 'planetary clocking' is not already readily understood and incorporated into forecast models.  It would certainly help in understanding some of the probabilistic/stochastic processes, and thus give a much better understanding when combined with increasing understanding of the solar dynamo processes."

More recently, I stated the following on the thread titled, "Like 'tuning a radio'...",

...welcome to the new era of heliospheric forecasting.  😁

Little did I realize back in July, that I would be the one leading the world-wide foray into this concept, in just a few short months.

My theory, previously expressed to some degree elsewhere on this forum, is that 'planetary positioning' plays a significant factor into the expression of magnetic solar activity, for it significantly affects the Quality Factor of the Heliosphere Resonation Cavity. In contrast to tidal/gravitational forces, planetary positioning affects the electromagnetic impedance of the heliosphere cavity, and thus the sun's cyclical electromagnetic discharge into that cavity.

I will take the first step, and apply these concepts to a Solar Cycle 25 Forecast in order to prove-out and test the theory, and should it show merit, improve upon it.

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  • 2 weeks later...

Peak Magnitude SSN of 153 + X.

What is "X"?  25, taking a cue from Pesnell & Schatten (2018).  They left themselves a big window (this is not their first rodeo).

Factors taken into consideration in arriving at this Peak for SC25 (which is considerably stronger than the 116.4 Peak of SC24):

  • The 'Polar Field Precursor Technique':  The 'Polar Field Precursor Technique', per Svalgaard et. al, factors into my Peak magnitude forecast (but I'm going out on a limb and forecasting a higher Peak than Svalgaard.)
  • Rebound out of the Gleissberg Minimum Dip: According to my unique 'Planetary Clocking Thesis', we will be coming out of the Gleissberg Minimum Dip by the end of 2020. (The electromagnetic impedance of the heliospheric resonant cavity will become more conducive to solar mid-latitude 'magnetic activity' as the cycle progresses, and going forward for several cycles.  (This rules out a Maunder Minimum for this cycle and immediately following cycles, until the next Gleissberg Minimum Dip.)
  • Potential for improved hemispherical symmetry: There certainly exists the potential for greater symmetry in hemispherical activity, compared to that of SC24.  (As I stated over in this comment, "I think Hemispheric Asymmetry, or the possible lessening of that this next cycle, could greatly factor into what the peak "amplitude" will be.") 
  • The Gnevyshev-Ohl Rule: According to the Gnevyshev-Ohl Rule, an odd-cycle is favored to be stronger than the previous even-cycle.  The reasons for this rule are not fully understood (by mainstream solar physicists), and it doesn't always hold true. I think it quite possibly has something to do with the cyclically alternating solar polarity, which affects the polarity characteristics of the heliospheric current sheet. Depending upon planetary positioning, the resulting electromagnetic impedance of the heliospheric resonant cavity might be more favorable (to mid-latitude magnetic activity) in some previous odd-cycles. Further study is required to assess how much the Gnevyshev-Ohl Rule will factor into future cycles.
  • INCREASING SLOPE of Polar Field Strength at Solar Minimum: The smoothed average of the WSO Polar Field Strength at (or quite close to) the Solar Minimum Nadir (SMN) of the SC24/25 transition is uniquely increasing (possessing a positive slope, see figure below), unlike previous cycles in which the 'Polar Field Precursor Technique' analyses has been applied.  This is something I have independently (and maybe uniquely) picked up on, and whether it actually has any significance remains to be seen, though it might be quite significant.


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