Space Environment Monitor (SEM) 'Triggers' for Earthquake Alert Proxy

[theartist]

18 minutes ago, goldminor said:

After discussing the potential 94 year pattern

Are you referring specifically to a Mercury-Venus-Mars conjunction, with Mercury on the opposite side of the sun?  If so, is it true that such a conjunction only happens every 94 years?

[goldminor]

1 minute ago, theartist said:

Are you referring specifically to a Mercury-Venus-Mars conjunction, with Mercury on the opposite side of the sun?  If so, is it true that such a conjunction only happens every 94 years?

I should rethink how to say that. What I am getting at is that the first 2 dates equate to the largest of the 3 1811/12 NMSZ quakes, and the 1906 quake. Looked up quakes around 6/16/2000 and there were 6 very strong quakes in a one week period centered around the 16th/17th. So the suggestion was that the pattern will induce a large quake every 94 years. That makes the next one a long ways away.

More than that, Mercury passing between the sun and the earth came up quite a number of times when checking out quake events. The 3 with the most hits as I searched were Jupiter, Saturn, and Mercury. Also the two large quake events of NMSZ 12/25/1699, and the first large quake of the 1811/12 have alignment similarities.

There is some variation in the alignment between those dates. So I use the term similar in that it always involves those 3 being in a combination of conj/oppo. The exact alignment can vary, and there are other quake/alignment patterns with Jupiter or Saturn where Mercury also shows up.

[goldminor]

Here are some interesting facts. I have a list of 8 dated quakes on the New Madrid. I checked the planetary patterns for the 8 as well as for 1/26/1700, the last great Cascadia quake. Mercury had an alignment with different planets in 8 out of the 9 samples. Mercury/Venus in conj or oppo occurs in 6 out of the 9 samples.

[theartist]

Here is another factor to consider: Geocentric alignments rather than just Heliocentric, which will increase the complexity of the analysis, but may provide answers as to why astrology and greek mythology were built up around planetary alignments, observed strictly with the naked eye, that would possibly coincide sometimes with terrifying phenomena like earthquakes.  A Geocentric alignment is observed at the time of the Great Cascadia of 26 Jan 1700:

[theartist]

On 12/16/2019 at 4:59 PM, theartist said:

On 12/16/2019 at 4:42 PM, goldminor said:

ere is an interesting look using GeoMag plots

Excellent.  If you check their Alaska observatory data around the Nov 24th date, you will see they registered big wonkiness before the >6 magnitude quake in Alaska on Nov 24.

I was referring to the USGS plots that registered HUGE activity prior to the following:

 

In the above plots, I placed the vertical grey line to correspond to the time when the quake occurred. Some of the observatories registered a huge swing of activity, over several hours, prior to the quake on the 24th.

 

On 12/15/2019 at 2:47 PM, theartist said:

On 12/15/2019 at 11:40 AM, Jenn said:

I’m not interested in graphs and data for the most part (sorry y’all)  only because it hasn’t proven anything yet with the Sun/Earthquake predictability. With that said it does seem indicative in this instance to be something to take note of. 

Wait a minute...was there anything in "this instance"?  I just checked the GOES 14 and GOES 15 data (the consolidated plots typically come out around 17:30 UTC on the following day) and there was nothing I see unusual in them...There certainly was not the 'Trigger Alert' signal I discuss in this thread.

On 12/15/2019 at 11:40 AM, Jenn said:

The Northern Philippines got hit by a strong 6.8 with 10 strong aftershocks so far.

There actually WAS some magnetic disturbance in the solar wind, registered outside the magnetosphere, prior to the Philippines quake.  But, unlike the SEM Trigger revealed at the beginning of this thread, it was something that is not highly unusual.  It was somewhat similar to what we see, for example, registered on Dec 18 in the plot below:

 

Some takeaways:

1. the correlation of pre-quake warning signals from ground-based magnetometers should definitely warrant more attention; 
2. the atypical SEM trigger signal, or similar, revealed at the beginning of this thread may also deserve further investigation as possible pre-quake signals; 
3. lunar and planetary alignments may offer longer timescale forecasting, when better understood, particularly with any relationship to solar activity.

[goldminor]

Here is something to keep an eye on. Early this morning, PST time, I noted a quake at Port Hardy, Canada just before going to sleep. Now a string of moderately powerful quakes have struck at Port Hardy. All of these could easily be fore shocks as this is part of the Cascadia fault system, a dangerous fault deemed to be susceptible to a major quake at any time. This could well be the start of a string of powerful quakes between now and the 27th. As noted in upper comments, I had pinned the 26th as the most likely day for a larger quake, but I did recognize that a range of days from the 24th through to the 26th would also have a higher strong quake probability. Makes sense in that planetary alignments also take multiple days to complete. There is the center point of the alignment, but I would think that whatever effect the alignment causes it is then in play for a few degrees before and after center point. Pic is the USGS daily quake map at about 1:10 pm.

Should have looked at jsOrrerey first. Jupiter/Earth now in oppo, and Uranus Mars just entering oppo.

[theartist]

   2 hours ago,  goldminor said: 

a string of moderately powerful quakes have struck at Port Hardy.

Four of them, between 16:00UTC and 21:00UTC:

 

A couple of  USGS Geomag plots registered significant activity more than four hours before @ ~12:00UTC. The Real Time Solar Wind also registered minor disturbance @ ~12:00UTC.

 

 

[Jenn]

Today’s quakes are making me on edge for the west coast. We are coming into a time of conjunctions, oppositions, eclipses and if I remember correctly it’s been about 500 years since the last time Saturn and Pluto came together in Capricorn. The time was during the “dancing plague” where people literally danced to death. Strange huh? 

Saturn is the planet of structures, discipline, and stability. Pluto is death, change, rebirth and power. Capricorn is the Father of Time. 
 

Also, what was in conjunction of the galactic center as of late? That’s another area to take note of I would think. 

 

[theartist]

10 hours ago, Jenn said:

it’s been about 500 years since the last time Saturn and Pluto came together in Capricorn.

Per strictly physics (not according to the astrology sign), the sun does not enter Capricorn (from earth's perspective) until the latter part of January; nonetheless, this particular Saturn-Pluto conjunction is quite interesting.  When Pluto (orbital period 248 yrs) crosses the ecliptic plane, Saturn (orbital period 29 yrs) is not necessarily in the vicinity, let alone as close as it is now.  At the Saturn-Pluto conjunction on the Sagittarius side, in 1518, Pluto had not quite arrived at the ecliptic; Pluto is very very close to the ecliptic during this conjunction. More fascinating is the fact this conjunction will happen temporally close to the 2020 New Year.  In addition, there will be an Earth-Mercury-Jupiter geocentric conjunction on 2-Jan-2020 (like during the Great Cascadia quake, see above), while a Mars-Uranus superior conjunction is simultaneously going on. 

And yet, there is more:

• an annular solar eclipse on December 26, 2019;
• an Earth-Jupiter superior conjunction on December 26, 2019, which the Galilean moon Io will pass through;
• a heliocentric conjunction on January 13 involving Earth-Mercury-Jupiter-Pluto Earth-Mercury-Saturn-Pluto!

(A hat-tip to Michele who mentioned some of these clear back on Nov 7 in the thread titled, "Stochastic influence on solar cycle activity: planetary clocking?")

Edited December 24, 2019 by theartist

[Jenn]

When I stated we are coming into a time of conjunctions I should have clarified the dates to save you the trouble. My apologies. 

Per Astrology we are in Capricorn season and not only that this year we have a “stellium”.  When all of these planets come together in one sign it’s impressionable not just for the individual but also for the collective. 

What I have noticed throughout the years is although these conjunctions happen on an exact day they are “in orb” prior which is when the energy begins to be “felt”. 
When reading interpretations for the 12th of Jan it literally says the earth moves on this day. 😳 So you can imagine..
When reading a natives birth chart to them I skip over that part. Jan 10-11 is the first lunar eclipse of the year. 

Now, I’d like to know the alignments of July 4th and 6th when California had their latest big quakes. I’ll take a look at my astrology software and let you know if I see anything. 
 

[theartist]

Jenn, I owe you and the readers an apology, due to an error that I did not catch before you posted.  The heliocentric conjunction (~at midnight) on Jan12 is for Earth-Mercury-Saturn-Pluto. That conjunction setup one second before midnight on 12-Jan-2020 is depicted in the following image:

In the following diagram, I show the conjunction looking over the top of Earth toward Pluto.  One can see the Sagittarius constellation still lies underneath this conjunction, and Capricorn is in the left of the image (partially cut-off).  

 

The astrological signs are broken down into 12 even time periods, but the actual constellations are not all the same arc-length. Further explanation is found in this article, wherein we read:

"The zodiacal signs are distinct from the constellations associated with them, not only because of their drifting apart due to the precession of equinoxes but also because the physical constellations take up varying widths of the ecliptic, so the Sun is not in each constellation for the same amount of time.^[41]:25"

Edited December 24, 2019 by theartist

[goldminor]

9 hours ago, theartist said:

Jenn, I owe you and the readers an apology, due to an error that I did not catch before you posted.  The heliocentric conjunction (~at midnight) on Jan12 is for Earth-Mercury-Saturn-Pluto. That conjunction setup one second before midnight on 12-Jan-2020 is depicted in the following image:

In the following diagram, I show the conjunction looking over the top of Earth toward Pluto.  One can see the Sagittarius constellation still lies underneath this conjunction, and Capricorn is in the left of the image (partially cut-off).  

 

The astrological signs are broken down into 12 even time periods, but the actual constellations are not all the same arc-length. Further explanation is found in this article, wherein we read:

"The zodiacal signs are distinct from the constellations associated with them, not only because of their drifting apart due to the precession of equinoxes but also because the physical constellations take up varying widths of the ecliptic, so the Sun is not in each constellation for the same amount of time.^[41]:25"

The 12th of Jan also looks like a high potential day to me. The full moon will be ending, and the inner planets have alignments similar to past large quake events. Here is another recent interesting observation. Of the 18 largest quakes since 2000 eleven of those occur at either the longest or shortest lunar month for the year. Of those 11, seven of the quakes occurred close to or during the longest lunar month of the year. February 2020 will be the longest lunar month for 2020. Imo, that gives extra weight for the probability of there being a large quake on the 26th, and even more so for the new moon on Feb 23rd.

 

Also of interest, note the two 6.0 quakes which struck on the morning of the 24th. The one in Columbia was very strong. Three more days to go for this heightened quake potential.

[goldminor]

Another intriguing clue has just presented itself. Earlier I had mentioned that over the years of observing the daily quake map I had formed the opinion that the Puerto Rico/Virgin Island area represents a tell, to use a term from the poker table. I then wondered if the cause of the activity might be due to planetary alignments, now that this thought has arisen after interacting here. So to the point, quakes striking the PR/VI area have been running at a rate of 24/day over the last 7 days. The rate for the previous 30 days was a touch over 16/day. The daily rate had been steadily increasing over those 30 days until 9:55 UTC today. Then the area went blank, zero quakes, for the next 10 hours before 3 more recently showed up making it 3 quakes in the last 15 hours at PR/VI. So why the sudden drop to 5/day from 24/day?

[theartist]

Prior to today's 6.3 quake at Port Hardy (2019-12-25 03:36:02 (UTC)), there was no unusual signal in the Real Time Solar Wind, nor were there any unusual signatures in the GeoMag Plots.

[goldminor]

BIG TIME Alert, A larger 6.3 quake just struck at Port Hardy.  Now recall my comment from several days ago where I called the 3 large Port Hardy quakes foreshocks. Worse than that, I think this 6.3 is also just a foreshock. It does appear that I had the right thoughts on current quake activity. From the USGS.

Looks like planetary alignments are the main ingredient after the moon for triggering large quakes. The GeoMag data is very noisy. That makes it near impossible to ever say that a particular moment of change had an effect which could trigger quakes. It is going to take some time of watching alignments/quakes to get a better understanding of any connections. Have to say that it has my full attention for now as it looks compelling. Not that every quake is triggered in this fashion, but a good number of the largest quakes show correlation.

[theartist]

57 minutes ago, goldminor said:

Looks like planetary alignments are the main ingredient after the moon for triggering large quakes.

Possibly...and as fantastical is the sun activity observed on the disk since my first  "Like 'tuning a radio'..." post.

[goldminor]

5 minutes ago, theartist said:

Possibly...and as fantastical is the sun activity observed on the disk since my first  "Like 'tuning a radio'..." post.

I have read through that thread.  So how would one know if a Gleissberg cycle was in play? I think that we are in either a Gleissberg or potentially headed towards a Dalton level minimum. I suppose that only time will tell the story once enough years pass to make a better determination of what happened. That is why I expect global temps to drop over the next 16+ years, or at the least move sideways in another pause period from the previous warming trend.

[Capricopia]

And there was a series of small quakes  near Mt Rainier over the last 6 days...

https://www.volcanodiscovery.com/mount_rainier-earthquakes.html

 

[theartist]

2 hours ago, goldminor said:

I think that we are in either a Gleissberg or potentially headed towards a Dalton level minimum.

Did you happen to see the following graph I recently dropped over here?

SC7, SC12, SC14, and SC24 sunspot number magnitudes are quite plausible for SC25, and fall in-line with 'The Panel's' forecast (recently updated).  Absolutely, such levels can be indicative of currently being in a Gleissberg Cycle.

If you think Dalton Minimum Levels are in-play, then you may find the following paper of interest: (Ahluwalia, Aug. 2019), wherein we read, "PF is decreasing in NH for the last three cycles (22-24), the decline is likely to continue into future. ... our prediction...(is) a Dalton minimum."

I'm investigating further what parameters would present opportunity for an outside hit of SC13, or even SC15, magnitudes.  In order to do so, things would have to 'align-up' (pun intended). ☺️

It is a pleasure to share this time here with you, and all viewers, on Christmas Day 2019.  Merry Christmas to all.

[Jenn]

I appreciate the great thinkers on this site. 
Merry Christmas 🎄🎁 

[goldminor]

14 hours ago, theartist said:

Did you happen to see the following graph I recently dropped over here?

SC7, SC12, SC14, and SC24 sunspot number magnitudes are quite plausible for SC25, and fall in-line with 'The Panel's' forecast (recently updated).  Absolutely, such levels can be indicative of currently being in a Gleissberg Cycle.

If you think Dalton Minimum Levels are in-play, then you may find the following paper of interest: (Ahluwalia, Aug. 2019), wherein we read, "PF is decreasing in NH for the last three cycles (22-24), the decline is likely to continue into future. ... our prediction...(is) a Dalton minimum."

I'm investigating further what parameters would present opportunity for an outside hit of SC13, or even SC15, magnitudes.  In order to do so, things would have to 'align-up' (pun intended). ☺️

It is a pleasure to share this time here with you, and all viewers, on Christmas Day 2019.  Merry Christmas to all.

Here is a possible clue for determining correlation. Everyone has missed their ENSO forecasts this year, including myself. I expected a La Nina to start to form in the early part of 2019. A handful of others who hold somewhat similar thoughts on the subject had predicted La Nina conditions forming between Sept to Dec of 2019. Around mid summer it occurred to me to search back through the full SC record for any minima periods where a significant  La Nina does not form up. To my surprise the answer was yes, and it happened during the last Gleissberg in the early 1900s.

At the minimum between SC13 and SC14 the ENSO regions went slightly negative for a short time before leaning positive for the rest of the minimum. And at the end of SC14 the ENSO regions responded the same. All other minima periods correlate with substantial negative trends in the ENSO regions. So my prediction is that this indicates that SC25 will be a weaker cycle because the ENSO region has refused to go more than slightly negative so far, and there is no indication for a La Nina of any strength to set in over the near future. That places the prospect for the next La Nina at the very end of this minimum, or later.

15 hours ago, theartist said:

Did you happen to see the following graph I recently dropped over here?

SC7, SC12, SC14, and SC24 sunspot number magnitudes are quite plausible for SC25, and fall in-line with 'The Panel's' forecast (recently updated).  Absolutely, such levels can be indicative of currently being in a Gleissberg Cycle.

If you think Dalton Minimum Levels are in-play, then you may find the following paper of interest: (Ahluwalia, Aug. 2019), wherein we read, "PF is decreasing in NH for the last three cycles (22-24), the decline is likely to continue into future. ... our prediction...(is) a Dalton minimum."

I'm investigating further what parameters would present opportunity for an outside hit of SC13, or even SC15, magnitudes.  In order to do so, things would have to 'align-up' (pun intended). ☺️

It is a pleasure to share this time here with you, and all viewers, on Christmas Day 2019.  Merry Christmas to all.

Meant to add Happy Holidays, and thanks for that great graph.

[theartist]

13 hours ago, goldminor said:

At the minimum between SC13 and SC14 the ENSO regions went slightly negative for a short time before leaning positive for the rest of the minimum. And at the end of SC14 the ENSO regions responded the same. All other minima periods correlate with substantial negative trends in the ENSO regions.

Interesting; do you have a recommended source of this information for the laymen?

[theartist]

8 hours ago, theartist said:

22 hours ago, goldminor said:

At the minimum between SC13 and SC14 the ENSO regions went slightly negative for a short time before leaning positive for the rest of the minimum. And at the end of SC14 the ENSO regions responded the same. All other minima periods correlate with substantial negative trends in the ENSO regions.

Interesting; do you have a recommended source of this information for the laymen?

Goldminor, here is a graph (found here) of the "Oceanic Niño Index (ONI)...NOAA's primary indicator for monitoring El Niño and La Niña":

I annotated the above graph with vertical dotted lines indicating where the Solar Minimums were located.  I can't see a trend, either way, in that data, which only goes back to Jan 1950, so please provide something better that indicates what you are referring to.

 

[goldminor]

42 minutes ago, theartist said:

Goldminor, here is a graph (found here) of the "Oceanic Niño Index (ONI)...NOAA's primary indicator for monitoring El Niño and La Niña":

I annotated the above graph with vertical dotted lines indicating where the Solar Minimums were located.  I can't see a trend, either way, in that data, which only goes back to Jan 1950, so please provide something better that indicates what you are referring to.

 

Here is the extended MEI from Hadley, and I should add Dr Svalgaard's high res ssn graph which ends in 2012. Take for example the minimum at 1995/96. The full MEI shows around 18 months of extended negative ENSO prior to the big El Nino spike after mid 1997. At the minimum of 1985/86 the ENSO had been negative for around 2 years. On the full MEI note how small the negative spike is at 1902/03 and again at 1912/13 which are the two minima on either side of SC14. That is what I am looking at.

[theartist]

Goldminor, thank you for the reply with data.  Before I look at it more closely, can you please clarify what the dotted-orange squiggly line represents in bottom graph?