Recent Cycle #25 Sunspot

[theartist]

It may be just coincidence that within a half hour of when the spot was first clearly visible on the SDO's HMI Intensitygram (~0930 UTC), there was a pickup in the GOES X-ray flux (attached).

[Mr.Fractal]

That means we should be expecting some Ionospheric perturbation, if an uptick in x ray emission is present, than won't we see a matching emission of charged particles? Since 12 midnight there have been 5, 5 Magnitude earthquakes, any chance there's a correlation between the discharge and our weakened magnetosphere? Hmmm?

Need another cup of coffee...

There's also been two 6.0 Mag!

The plot thickens...

[theartist]

17 minutes ago, Mr.Fractal said:

That means we should be expecting some Ionospheric perturbation, if an uptick in x ray emission is present, than won't we see a matching emission of charged particles? 

The current X-ray uptick is very minor and so low that some solar physicists may consider it only a coincidence (but curious, nonetheless) that it occurred around the time the sunspot was piercing the photosphere.  I wouldn't expect any charged particles specifically associated with the sunspot activity that has occurred so far today (the particles would arrive many hours later) to be distinguished from background.

 

[Mr.Fractal]

Thank you, I haven't had the chance to do enough research into the measurements of incoming waves and x rays. Are there any other unusual particle or energised plasmas associated with the recent findings?

 

[theartist]

55 minutes ago, Mr.Fractal said:

Are there any other unusual particle or energised plasmas associated with the recent findings?

 

Only to the extent that the sunspots have been observable on SDO for four hours, but the SILSO network (http://www.sidc.be/silso/eisnplot ) has not yet acknowledged them.  But I doubt that is what you possibly are referring to. ☺️

 

[Mr.Fractal]

I'll check out that link Thanks

[theartist]

At ~15:09 UTC, Dr. K. Strong said "I do not see it presently."; (that conversation is in the comments under his latest video over at his youtube channel).  It is not clear if he was referring to looking through his personal telescope or at SDO images.  SDO is still showing, at 1445 UTC, a pretty robust area growing in sunspot number (image attached).  https://imgur.com/ijiqheY

[Mr.Fractal]

Fantastic! This is especially important, though I'd like to wait until the 30 hour observations are concluded. The upper quadrant where we see this activity is a little surprising for me, I have been following the sun spots over the last 3 weeks and have found them to be around the Horizon line, and just a little bit below the horizon line. This recent activity in the upper quadrant that you pointed out shows us that there may be some fluctuation in the internal mechanics beneath the area in which we can observe,  driving a New source of Deep discharge from within. Perhaps this is signaling a new shift of the polarity of plasma where we may expect an increase in sun spots along this current equitorial region. Thank you

[JB1]

Dear Marcel de Bont, theartist, Vancanneyt Sander, Emilio Petrozzi, Mr.Fractal

Thank you for all the great posts! I am a newbie amateur that became interested based on some of the media accounts of work in this space. Those models had somewhat divergent predictions of future sunspot activity- Cycle 25. As a Ph.D. in another field (Chemical Engineering) I find all this fascinating. The fascination is probably spurred by my late father, who was an outstanding amateur astronomer.

And then you have the sun spot history itself. It was "corrected" (I use quotes because I have no idea if I think it was appropriate) in this work described here: 

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2015/08/150807220750.htm

Any idea what was the basis for correcting this (in laymen's terms)? How it was done and why the "corrected" data is more believable than the original data? It shows no increase in solar activity, yet, other accounts have recent solar activity at a 8000 year high

https://www.space.com/484-sunspot-activity-8-000-year-high.html

My laymen's take: solar behavior is poorly understood, but the next 5 to 15 years could be an opportunity for significant advances. Even less understood is the impact of solar activity on climate.

[theartist]

Hi JB1,

Hopefully someone more informed will answer your questions.  From my limited understanding, I think the correction was done because it was believed that sunspot counts were inflated in the modern era, over previous years, due to the improvement in observance technology (better scopes/optics, etc.).  Your citation discussing an "8000 year high" was from 2004, whereas, the citation discussing the 'correction' was from several years later; the earlier accounts were probably overstating solar activity when based on the pre-corrected inflated-count-data.

[theartist]

6 hours ago, Mr.Fractal said:

This recent activity in the upper quadrant that you pointed out shows us that there may be some fluctuation in the internal mechanics beneath the area in which we can observe,  driving a New source of Deep discharge from within. 

Mr.Fractal, the attached video compares today's sunspot formation in AR2737 (provisional numbering) to that of AR2734 from ~3/05/19.  The latter area was at slightly lower latitude, and it had a somewhat strange north-south plage orientation when it first formed .

[Mr.Fractal]

Thank you, I'm looking for a recently developed model which may describeThe internal mechanics, but..it looks like The energy is spreading from the central horizon to the top pole and the bottom Pole at the same time. I need to get a program where I can drop some arrows over the image to show the direction of flow. 

[theartist]

Hey everyone, attached is a neat movie showing the progression of sunspot activity through a couple of cycles, with magnetic polarity indicated by color.  I think that movie came from the following website (or a website that linked to it): http://solarcyclescience.com/media.html .

 

 

[JB1]

Hi theartist

Yes, that is what I read. I think who made most of these observations historically is known. Thus, there should be detectable "steps" with improvements in technology that should be detectable, if that was the case.

JB1

[Rubén Vázquez]

On 3/8/2019 at 8:23 PM, theartist said:

Yes, Rubén Vázquez, that is the latest sunspot region we are discussing above.  In the last 24 hours it put out a C-Class flare.   An interesting dramatization of the compressive-blast of the plasma-wave produced by the flare can be found here: https://twitter.com/halocme/status/1103922955338211328

Thanks for your reply theartist!! 

[Rubén Vázquez]

On 31/3/2019 at 17:52, Mr.Fractal said:

¡Fantástico! Esto es especialmente importante, aunque me gustaría esperar hasta que concluyan las observaciones de 30 horas. El cuadrante superior donde vemos esta actividad es un poco sorprendente para mí, he estado siguiendo las manchas del sol durante las últimas 3 semanas y he encontrado que están alrededor de la línea del horizonte, y un poco por debajo de la línea del horizonte. Esta actividad reciente en el cuadrante superior que usted señaló nos muestra que puede haber cierta fluctuación en la mecánica interna debajo del área en la que podemos observar, impulsando una Nueva fuente de descarga profunda desde dentro. Quizás esto esté señalando un nuevo cambio de la polaridad del plasma donde podemos esperar un aumento en las manchas solares a lo largo de esta región ecuatorial actual. Gracias

Hello, a question, does this zone belong to the cycle belt 24 or 25?

Thank you very much for all the information.

[theartist]

Hi Rubén, its black (negative) polarity is leading and it's in the northern hemisphere, so it belongs to old Solar Cycle 24. 

[Rubén Vázquez]

Hi! thanks for your reply theartist! 

52 minutes ago, theartist said:

Hi Rubén, it's black (negative) polarity is leading and it's in the northern hemisphere, so it belongs to old Solar Cycle 24. 

 

And one more question. Since the end of February, the flow of x-rays has greatly reduced its activity, to the point of being almost all the time below detection thresholds. I have spoken with the Russian physicists of the LPI RAS laboratory because they are surprised by this behavior. However, I do not see that importance is being given to this in general. What do you think about it that you also have time observing and studying the sun? Can we consider it a symptom that the sun has taken another step in its possible entry into an important period of low activity?

Thank you.

[theartist]

Rubén, I personally have not been studying the sun long enough to draw any significant conclusions with regard to the X-ray flux, relative to its historical behavior.  The GOES X-Ray bands plotted in your graph are only over the range of 0.5-8 A.  On the 'brief' excursions (several hours maximum) when they pop above C-Class energy level (i.e., 10-6 W m-2), their portion of the total irradiance energy (TSI) is still several orders of magnitude less than what the sun rather consistently puts out (~1360 W m-2).

Have you reviewed any of the energy levels contained in the different bandwidths that are being measured by the SORCE program?  At least some of that data can be found here:  http://lasp.colorado.edu/lisird/ 

For example, attached is a plot of energy levels at ~121nm.  The plot indicates that for that particular frequency, the current irradiance energy levels are higher than they were at SC23's minimum.

[Mr.Fractal]

Artist, thank you for the link to Sorce! And also THANK YOU for getting back to Rueben about the image that I received from you and enlarged. I also should next time state where the image was derived. Thanks that won't happen again. , I had to log on just now to ask you and this community about the recent quantity of tremors, earthquakes and volcanism which totals some 950+ which has happened in the last three days.

Artist as you brought to my attention,  there has been a 6.5 Mag at 12mi depth near Kiska Alaska, there was also a 6.2Mag off the coast of Ecuador not much more than 30 hours prior. Could The Sun be exciting Iron Protons in the earth and "pulling" on these regions? I have also been following earthquakes from Mexico to Alaska along crustal plate zones following from Chile all the way to the Aleutian Islands I have noticed a correlation between activity from Central America and Alaska the earthquakes seem to be pinging back-and-forth. I am having difficulty locating p-wave information regarding the transferral of great amounts of energy far beneath the crust. Though we can register earthquakes as far as four or five hundred kilometers down for some reason we are unable to find information about pressure wave transfers furthur below within the central area of the liquid mantle.  I think it would be prudent at this point between the amount of earthquakes between Central America and the Pacific Northwest to put Santiago Chile, Los Angeles, Mexico City and San Francisco on alert. As you can see from the photo, courtesy Volcanos and Earthquakes. Com, there has been a very large increase in volcanism and earthquake activity.

Any recent conversations? From Telemetry, JPL, NASA, Cal Tech or any other scientific research individuals would be appreciated. I believe the entrance into Cycle 25 will be heralded by much, much larger earthquakes.

Be safe everyone and think about putting together a 24 hour emergency bag. Keep it by the door. Be safe, Mr. Fractal 

 

[Rubén Vázquez]

Very interesting the information that you teach me. Thank you. In my question I am referring specifically to the GOES 15 red graph, 1.0 - 8.0 A.

This is the one used on the official website of the LPI RAS laboratory usually to measure the activity of possible flares.

When at the end of February its activity fell below detection thresholds, they published a note saying verbatim phrases such as "For several days in the graphics of solar activity, coming from space in real time, instead of the usual dynamic image, a straight line appears, occasionally distorted by small disturbances.

The first question that arises in this regard is "is everything OK with the satellite monitors?" It is easy to make sure that the scientific team works without failures, but it happened " impossible ": the level of short-wave radiation from the Sun, which has been at a record low level in recent months, has decreased by about 100 times and has fallen below the sensitivity threshold of the instrument."

Currently, it has changed to GOES 14, until the thresholds of 15 are adjusted, which will have to take into account these deep decreases in the future.

But who are the Russian scientists who have published the note? Is it a reliable source of information?

The LPI RAS laboratory, Russia, is one of the main Russian centers for studying solar activity. In the course of the theoretical and experimental research in the Laboratory, unique data were obtained on the structure and dynamics of the solar corona, the mechanisms of energy release in the solar atmosphere and the spectral and temperature composition of the solar plasma. Laboratory staff conducted the first satellite experiment in the history of the world to observe short-wave solar radiation: for the first time in history the first X-ray photograph of the Sun was obtained.

I have been studying the behavior of weather and climate all my life, and for a few years I have been much more interested in the climate of the past, especially the Abrupt Climate Change and its effects on societies. For some time I have been interested in space weather, which I think that in the coming decades it will begin to give the importance it deserves about its effects and interactions on us and our climate.

But I have much less experience than you in this matter, for which I thank you for your work and answers.

I apologize for my English.

And I apologize to the administrator in case this topic does not go here. If you have to move it to another site, I'll understand. I do not want to divert the post.

[theartist]

Ruben, it appears to me that the GOES 15 1.0 - 8.0 A (red graph) sensor may possibly be having issues resolving accurately (with noise, data drop-outs, etc.) when signal drops below a certain threshold.  You can directly compare the signal to the GOES 14 measuring the same bandwidths (both 1.0-8.0 A and 0.5-4.0 A) plotted on your graph.  The LPI RAS laboratory states on their website,

"The X-ray sensor of the Sun, located on the GOES-15 spacecraft, which in recent years has been the main source of information about flares on the Sun, shows its instability at low radiation fluxes. Such a conclusion can be drawn from the analysis of the radiation profiles coming from the apparatus. For this reason, from March 26, the center of space weather of FIAN is temporarily transferred to information from the GOES-14 apparatus . The reverse transition will be completed after the situation has stabilized and the sensor has been restored. "

https://tesis.lebedev.ru/info/20190327.html 

I would suggest comparing the GOES X-ray data with the data provided at the link I cited earlier (http://lasp.colorado.edu/lisird/ ), over those same bandwidths, 10nm-80nm.  I'm curious how they compare, but unfortunately, I'm not able to get into that site this morning. 

(BTW, I think your comments are on topic here, as they pertain to the transition into SC25, and I appreciate the site administrator providing this publicly-available forum on which we can discuss these topics. 🙂) 

[Rubén Vázquez]

10 minutes ago, theartist said:

Ruben, it appears to me that the GOES 15 1.0 - 8.0 A (red graph) sensor may possibly be having issues resolving accurately (with noise, data drop-outs, etc.) when signal drops below a certain threshold.  You can directly compare the signal to the GOES 14 measuring the same bandwidths (both 1.0-8.0 A and 0.5-4.0 A) plotted on your graph.  The LPI RAS laboratory states on their website,

"The X-ray sensor of the Sun, located on the GOES-15 spacecraft, which in recent years has been the main source of information about flares on the Sun, shows its instability at low radiation fluxes. Such a conclusion can be drawn from the analysis of the radiation profiles coming from the apparatus. For this reason, from March 26, the center of space weather of FIAN is temporarily transferred to information from the GOES-14 apparatus . The reverse transition will be completed after the situation has stabilized and the sensor has been restored. "

https://tesis.lebedev.ru/info/20190327.html 

I would suggest comparing the GOES X-ray data with the data provided at the link I cited earlier (http://lasp.colorado.edu/lisird/ ), over those same bandwidths, 10nm-80nm.  I'm curious how they compare, but unfortunately, I'm not able to get into that site this morning. 

(BTW, I think your comments are on topic here, as they pertain to the transition into SC25, and I appreciate the site administrator providing this publicly-available forum on which we can discuss these topics. 🙂) 

Yes, theartist, but the fact is that the failures come to light precisely because of the low activity, or that I understand from your article that I had already read. I would not understand that they published an article like the one on March 1, showing themselves so surprised.  https://tesis.lebedev.ru/info/20190301.html

I understand that they have to adjust the GOES 15, but what I can not find anywhere is a note from NASA that talks about problems in its operation. It would be nice if someone has to post it here.

 

Thanks!!

[theartist]

12 hours ago, Mr.Fractal said:

I believe the entrance into Cycle 25 will be heralded by much, much larger earthquakes.

Mr.Fractal, do you wish to share why you think that?  Are you referring to some particular characteristics with the current solar minimum?  Do you have any any credible sources you wish to share that link earthquakes & volcanoes to solar activity, particularly with regard to solar minimums and transitioning out-of them?  

The current solar irradiance levels measured at TOA (the TSI) appear to be higher when compared to the deep minimum at the end of SC23.  Another metric in comparing the two minimums, plotted over at space weather.com, is the  "Thermosphere Climate Index", "a number expressed in Watts that tells how much heat NO molecules are dumping into space. During Solar Maximum, TCI is high (“Hot”); during Solar Minimum, it is low (“Cold”)."  https://spaceweatherarchive.com/2018/09/27/the-chill-of-solar-minimum/

We can observe from those plots (attached) that currently, the SC24 minimum is not yet as 'cold' as the SC23 minimum.

[Mr.Fractal]

Artist, I am afraid I am on my own with my hypothesis. I am not quoting credible sources, these observations are my own from years of studies regarding sulphur compounds in the atmosphere and following earthquakes and volcanisim quite closely these last 4 years. At this point, this hypothesis is my own...

I will try and answer this, we have to consider TSI, EMR "electromagnetic radiation", Magnetic Attraction, Combined thermolytic coupling of radioactive Protons in situ, "that quantitative radiation which exists in the space between our planet and the sun as a "constant" ", The new forms of Galactic radiation that our planet moves into as it travels the elipse of the galactic wheel. Because of the solar minimum, our planetary magnetosphere is in a state on entropy. Quantum flux tubes which exchange polorised radiation and electromagnetic plasma are currently shrinking, the amount of Nobel gasses in our atmosphere with combinations of sulphur are also a key factor in the way electromagnetic waves connect with the earth and fluxuate.

The connection between earth quakes can be seen as a symptom of the condition of radiation and electromagnetic plasma being given off by our star, the quantity of ferrous iron in the earth's crust is the "great attractor" causing a reverse charge to be sent back out into space, similar to "sprites" observed above thunderclouds. Our atmosphere acts as a conductive film.

At times when sulphur combinations with other metals and radiation in the upper atmosphere are high then we can observe a specific fluctuation in the behavior of incoming radiation and electromagnetism from the Sun.This specific behavior I refer to is one of attraction outwardly towards our star.

It is the combination of atmospheric plasma, the condition of this planet's quantum flux tubes, the angle of plasma discharge from the sun directly impacting magnetic compounds in the earth's crust, and the dipole response back towards the sun. We are heading to a solar minimum yet this planet is having many 5.0 and 6.0 Mag. Quakes, this is partly due to a huge number of strato volcanos which have been highly active since the solar change. It is the period of change, whether going into solar minimum, or into solar maximum that causes the volcanic activity and the increase in microscopic metals being pumped into the atmosphere in Huge quantity.

This, I believe is because we are not seeing the intermix of electromagnetism interference from our atmosphere.

We must view our atmosphere as a  (dynamic metallic film) which has a huge impact on the attraction of metals in the earth's crust. Compounded only by the entropy of the magnetosphere.

Our atmosphere is Magnifying the attraction of our star, And magnification of the TSI as it occurs due to the orientation of sulphur crystals in vast quantity in the stratosphere. This is why I believe the new solar maximum will be heralded by strong quakes.

We are neglecting studies regarding quantity of metals in the stratospheric levels and this mistake, will cause us to have inaccurate measurements of both TSI and electromagnetic connections to behavior within our planets mantle due to these factors