We expect the influence of the next coronal hole, number 85. It has a negative polarity, which is considered less geoeffective than a positive one for the autumnal equinox. But in practice, as I've personally observed, the difference is not great. As always, we'll hope that the compression region ahead of the HSS will be more disturbed. And right now, all the prerequisites for this are in place:

- the solar wind speed is currently below 400 km/s;

- there are two relatively active regions. One is west of the CH, the other to the north. Both of these can add disturbances to the magnetic fields of both the region ahead of the HSS and the HSS itself.

Moreover, the CH is located on the equator and is large.

I would expect the beginning of the effect to be at the beginning of October 11. It is impossible to say when the solar wind parameters will become geoeffective. However, we still have SolO, and we can look at its data tomorrow in the late afternoon.

Cool Samrau. Sure looks like a nice filament directly beneath it too.