10 uren geleden, Christopher Shriver zei:

Anything from data error(frequent) to a long-shot theory about cosmic dust interference. Sometimes, rocks trapped in orbit can attenuate energy due to induction from IMF transients. This isn't really confirmed, but the errors are.

Thanks @Christopher Shriver. @PandorasParabox please remember to stay on topic. If you have a question like this feel free to open a new topic. This topic is about incoming active regions. Thanks!

Backside CME just now ejecting from an incoming region.

(bonus tail-end of 3679's M4.23 CME on the right)

The first spot from former 3663 is now visible on the east limb. I don't get my hopes up too high because the region wasn't too active on the farside.

4 hours ago, Misaka said:

The first spot from former 3663 is now visible on the east limb. I don't get my hopes up too high because the region wasn't too active on the farside.

Yeah, it was showing a couple of nice loops two days ago.  It was a rather large region, however. Still waiting on 3664 Southern Hemisphere. Nothing spectacular down under either yet.  

42 minutes ago, hamateur 1953 said:

Yeah, it was showing a couple of nice loops two days ago.  It was a rather large region, however. Still waiting on 3664 Southern Hemisphere. Nothing spectacular down under either yet.  

I'd say 3664 has clamed down.

3 minutes ago, danderson400 said:

I'd say 3664 has clamed down.

Why so?

5 hours ago, Misaka said:

The first spot from former 3663 is now visible on the east limb. I don't get my hopes up too high because the region wasn't too active on the farside.

Yep! But i think, something has flared there just now.

1 hour ago, MinYoongi said:

Yep! But i think, something has flared there just now.

I’m guessing a bit, but it looks like 3689 from brightness I see.  Good morning btw Min.  Well 3679 is the only likely candidate it seems but 89 is really getting much brighter IMO. 

Edited May 23, 20241 yr by hamateur 1953
Rechecked

6 hours ago, danderson400 said:

I'd say 3664 has clamed down.

When you look at the Farside Map, that doesnt seem to be the case

6 hours ago, hamateur 1953 said:

Yeah, it was showing a couple of nice loops two days ago.  It was a rather large region, however. Still waiting on 3664 Southern Hemisphere. Nothing spectacular down under either yet.  

Hopefully 3664 comes back with a BOOM, but dont get the hopes up to high...

 

Edited May 23, 20241 yr by Solar_Marcel

I was just reviewing 3663 history. Not only did it begin development when nearly halfway across the disk. 3663 produced a total of 35 M flares snd five x class.  Only 32 C class. This has to be a record for M class I would imagine. 

1 hour ago, hamateur 1953 said:

I was just reviewing 3663 history. Not only did it begin development when nearly halfway across the disk. 3663 produced a total of 35 M flares snd five x class.  Only 32 C class. This has to be a record for M class I would imagine. 

The archive has 61 M flares from its younger sibling AR3664. I'm not sure what is the actual record is but I feel like 61 is tough to beat haha.

Can't tell if 3690 is old 3663 yet but looks like it might be.

61 !!! Wowie. Plus the twelve or thirteen X class and probably at least one more high end X that I think @tniickckcaught when I finally fell asleep after 36 hours. Edit: I just checked the last twenty flares on Solar Soft. Unfortunately there are no flares listed in our incoming region. Worrisome. Especially as both regions may need nuclear injections ( Trump) or charcoal lighter fluid ( meme) to kickstart em 😇

Edited May 24, 20241 yr by hamateur 1953
Lmsal ( solar soft)

Good Afternoon all from somewhat cloudy southern Australia. 

 

Im no expert and half of what is said goes over my head, from what i understand AR3664 is still on the far side of the sun as shown by GONG. 

now i could be Misinterpreting this but do the two circled regions in the lower right of the image look like AR3664 which is due to come to earthside in a few days? 

 

1 hour ago, Prizma1227 said:

Good Afternoon all from somewhat cloudy southern Australia. 

 

Im no expert and half of what is said goes over my head, from what i understand AR3664 is still on the far side of the sun as shown by GONG. 

now i could be Misinterpreting this but do the two circled regions in the lower right of the image look like AR3664 which is due to come to earthside in a few days? 

 

Yep, the bottom right spots are almost certainly whatever has become of 3664.

6 minutes ago, Christopher Shriver said:

 it appears to have only slightly "died down" based on coronagraph imagery over the past few days, which allows some far-side activity to be known.

I've referred to the use of GONG images as "Rorschach Forecasting" before, jokingly but also semi-seriously, as the definition of these images is highly questionable. However, this is more detrimental to understanding complexity and spot distribution, less-so for getting an impression of size... and that region still looks big and bold. I'm excited!

Do you mean there were CME's visible that it produced? I have not paid attention too closely, but i did not notice as big CME's as it fired off when freshly off the limb. Looking at STIX, i have not seen big flares either. Maybe im misunderstanding you though - if so, sorry! 

 

And I absolutely agree with the Gong images being Rorschach forecasting  Its tricky with their Duty Cycle too, sometimes its very accurate and good, sometimes its rather bad.

Should i worry about 3664 doing a another big CME at us or not?

31 minutes ago, danderson400 said:

Should i worry about 3664 doing a another big CME at us or not?

The biggest worry of all is if a good CME launched at us and there is a chance of clouds to stop the view. Nothing else to worry about other than that.

So i shouldn't worry about a Carrington class CME then.

21 minutes ago, danderson400 said:

So i shouldn't worry about a Carrington class CME then.

You have nothing to worry about. Unless.... you want to worry that yellowstone and camping flegri supervolcanos are about to erupt. Also aliens could invade at any time too! All these things have just as good of a chance as a super magnetic storm, possibly even better chances since earth is so small of a target.

41 minutes ago, danderson400 said:

So i shouldn't worry about a Carrington class CME then.

Given we have an advanced warning of geomagnetic storms now, you don't need to worry.

I am really impressed and would like to say thank you to all the experienced people here in the forum, don't getting exhausted to explain the facts to people with anxieties and hopefully calm them down. You never get rude in any way, I appreciate that so much. 

I think the headlines and so called news in the media caused a kind of Carrington trauma.

To feared people: ask yourself what could happen in the absolutely rare worst case scenario? Even if there are damaged satellites, even if you will experience a power outtake, the worst thing most people will have is no WLAN and no GPS navigation in their cars. Maybe I'm too old that I don't fear these faults but remember there was a time we had none of these things and we were pretty happy. No sunstorm will ever harm you as a human. Try to push the fears away and make room for the beautiful things like aurora. 

How pretty is the Loop on the most recent images

https://suntoday.lmsal.com/sdomedia/SunInTime/2024/05/11/f0171.jpg

7 hours ago, Prizma1227 said:

How pretty is the Loop on the most recent images

https://suntoday.lmsal.com/sdomedia/SunInTime/2024/05/11/f0171.jpg

That is awesome!!! 

Well. Our long anticipated 3664 is in regions due to return at South 19 degrees.  Funny, they had no room for even an M flare. Only the top ten X class.  Tnx fer the like @Justanerd. Editing now cuz there is a hunk of filament smack in our view. Hopefully this region is 3693. Someone elses turn to start a new thread for old 3664.  Edit. SFI. 156 at 20:00 UTC. May 26.  😎

Edited May 26, 20241 yr by hamateur 1953
3664 greater anticipation rarely seen here.