1 hour ago, Rudolph said:

Unfortunately 14115 looks weakened over the last 48 hours:

Might be something related to it being close to the edge causing PHI to become inaccurate, but I can't see the delta anymore. Raben is claiming it has barely weakened or grown slightly in the last 24 hours, not sure what it's based on but hopefully that's correct.

I have been watching the limb for flying plasma too hoping for any activity. First I have heard of Raben btw. Hopefully a science related program or trustworthy observer. @Rudolph Off-topic on sigmoids but I know they interest you. Was discussing them with another member last evening and apparently Lmsal was running a sigmoid sniffer at one time. First I have heard of this but was interesting.

Edited July 6Jul 6 by hamateur 1953
Sigmoids

5 hours ago, Patrick P.A. Geryl said:

A fast growing sunspot will be visible tomorrow on the farside or our side😊. First of 4 this month.

Mr Geryl, how about the solar superstorm on June 28th?

Unlabeled region off the limb just popped an M flare. Its been active. Could be good news as it turns to face us.

1 hour ago, Spizzaboy said:

Unlabeled region off the limb just popped an M flare. Its been active. Could be good news as it turns to face us.

Wooo hooo! Long overdue! X.248 😊. Edit: Couldn’t recall the approximate lat of old 14114. It was around 18-20 north hopefully gets his new number tomorrow or Wednesday…. Very active over last day as @Spizzaboy correctly noted.

Edited July 8Jul 8 by hamateur 1953
Latitude verification

5 hours ago, hamateur 1953 said:

Wooo hooo! Long overdue! X.248 😊. Edit: Couldn’t recall the approximate lat of old 14114. It was around 18-20 north hopefully gets his new number tomorrow or Wednesday…. Very active over last day as @Spizzaboy correctly noted.

Hi there everyone!

Brand new member, but been studying it all for some years now. I might not know the technical vocabulary but I know the patterns and behaviour of atmospheric changes over many cycles. The “bigger picture” stuff involves no conspiracies or prophecies, no pseudo science or fantasy, no magic or miracles. “God”, if you believe in that business provided what we already have, the Sun and its activity being a physical, tangible source of light and fascination. “Science”, if you believe in that business provided what we already have, the Sun and its activity being a physical, tangible source for the study of its activity and its potential effect on us.

I joined only out of both admiration and joy. Admiration speaks for itself, the community, the interest in the Sun, the intelligence, humour, such huge hope for auroras and a peek of the bigger picture itself, with the naked eye for the most joy.

But ups and downs, mixed polarities of north and south, the heads and tails of a coin, the + and - of a magnetic field. You cannot have one without the other - and so for the initial dismay. What is the point of any of it if members who have strong feelings about an upcoming event are ridiculed/silenced/cancelled? Why? It would just as easy to set up a single room that causes no harm but honours “hunches” a place with its own space and right to exist - because whoever that member was, he was brave, he took a shot, a chance, he had such a strong feeling that an x flare would happen despite there being zero evidence for it. In fact it angered admin so much they stopped its “nonsense” as it were (not a direct quote).

And what happens some 48 hours later?

X.248? I would love to be part of this community and hope that the admin has a powerful heart and not a powerful ego. A demonstration of a good heart and beyond the ego would be to allow this comment to be seen. I truly believe the admin was right to question going down a path of fanciful predictions. Quite correct in my opinion, but I feel that “fanciful predictions” could be a very interesting consciousness experiment - scientifically we can see immediately who is completely off (which the predictor will learn from, massively, through the deep shame of being completely wrong!) and who knows, we may even see a pattern of a particular member being eerily close or correct. This chap said IF there was an X flare within 24-48 hours he would explain how he knew, if not, he apologised in advance for his tiny mind, can’t remember exactly what he said.

I for one, would love to hear “how he knew”, as plants communicate and sense change, animals sense and communicate change, as we are far more advanced than them we must possess the same sense, but I would suggest that it would be relative to change on our level of “order”, and as my study into larger patterns consistently points at the sun being the primary driver of change then perhaps we are the ones to see such things and its just ordinary for our species, nothing “magic”. We all know a Carrington Event is overdue, we all know Portugal, Spain, and the Czech Republic have all had temporary grid collapses recently, we know most bushings on most power grids have a 25 year lifespan on average and how many of them are over 50 years old and dramatically expensive to upgrade. We know from the Heathrow Airport power loss that an old sub-station was to blame.

Point being, electrical grids the world over are far less stable than you would imagine. PLUS on top of all that, there is a really big surge in demand for electricity to power AI and data centres. So, the interest in an Earth “hit”, purely due to the consequences, has never been more fascinating to observe - and so, my case for a room for hunches should have its own place - because to be honest, the effect of that would allow only pure data in all the other rooms.

What do you think guys? Love, warmth, kindness, and blessings to each and every one of you.

Heartfelt sincerity,

Martin P

New region enters through eastern limbo New region enters the eastern limb with a moderate M 2.5 class event.

https://www.lmsal.com/solarsoft/archive/sdo/media/ssw/ssw_client/data/ssw_service_250707_213443_13996/www/SSW_cutout_20250708T0337-20250708T0449_AIA_131-193-171_N20E88_ssw_cutout_20250708_033708_aia_131_N20E88_20250708_033706_j.html

13 minutes ago, ooberman said:

But ups and downs, mixed polarities of north and south, the heads and tails of a coin, the + and - of a magnetic field. You cannot have one without the other - and so for the initial dismay. What is the point of any of it if members who have strong feelings about an upcoming event are ridiculed/silenced/cancelled? Why? It would just as easy to set up a single room that causes no harm but honours “hunches” a place with its own space and right to exist - because whoever that member was, he was brave, he took a shot, a chance, he had such a strong feeling that an x flare would happen despite there being zero evidence for it. In fact it angered admin so much they stopped its “nonsense” as it were (not a direct quote).

I approved your post as I am not unreasonable but I do set boundries for what I believe is for the greater good of the community. I was not angry at all when I locked the topic in question but a complete topic to make a claim based on zero evidence... might as well take a guess that it is going to rain in the next 48 hours. It might happen, it might not happen. I did not check the forecast. It is just a hunch.

Just saying if people want to make these claims they should give a solid reasoning as to why they make a claim like this. There is a complex or rapidly developing region... far side CMEs etc... fine... but reason like... I think... or.... Mystic Meg told me... or... I get a headache before a solar flare... are no good reasons. It all stems from the problems we had with allowing discussions about alternative science. We do not go down this road again.

13 minutes ago, ooberman said:

And what happens some 48 hours later?

M2.4.

6 hours ago, hamateur 1953 said:

Wooo hooo! Long overdue! X.248 😊. Edit: Couldn’t recall the approximate lat of old 14114. It was around 18-20 north hopefully gets his new number tomorrow or Wednesday…. Very active over last day as @Spizzaboy correctly noted.

hamateur pulled our leg. He's a funny one. 😉

Marcel, what a top man! Your reply was very encouraging and very helpful!

You allowed me to speak my mind, corrected me where I was wrong and as it was not an x flare then the whole argument for “how did he know” collapses, because he didn't know, and you are right, if a known source of what might be is not revealed then its a pointless exercise.

I do detect an underlying hope that is never mentioned though, I sense an underlying current of hoping for more than just good auroras, an unmentioned longing for a power grid buster to see if we can go it alone, but together, without the external system we are so attached to, and the sun is the only physical entity that has the agency to do such a thing… but will it… its X flare or nothing isn’t it…

There’s certainly more people than ever before who have seen auroras with the naked eye now. I think the key to another Carrington Event must surely depend on a longer cycles maximum than the 11 year cycle, what are your feelings about the Gleissberg Cycle? It certainly seems to point to when the Sun underwent a phase shift in activity, so did humans, late 1770’s birthed Industrial Age, Carrington Eva period birthed Electricity Era, late 1950’s birthed Electrical Appliance Era, and so we have the 2040-50 ish next maximum. Yet power grids in general could not cope with the power demand by that time with mass infrastructure updates, which humans generally not so great at dealing with until its too late.

I found this great white paper on the Gleissberg Cycle, thoughts?

https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Shahinaz-Yousef/publication/267429165_The_solar_Wolf-Gleissberg_cycle_and_its_influence_on_the_earth/links/5ea067ac299bf143893d2d01/The-solar-Wolf-Gleissberg-cycle-and-its-influence-on-the-earth.pdf?origin=publication_detail&_tp=eyJjb250ZXh0Ijp7ImZpcnN0UGFnZSI6InB1YmxpY2F0aW9uIiwicGFnZSI6InB1YmxpY2F0aW9uRG93bmxvYWQiLCJwcmV2aW91c1BhZ2UiOiJwdWJsaWNhdGlvbiJ9fQ

this paper is ancient! I got gemini to see if its predictions were right or not:

Yousef's and Lean's predictions, based on the understanding of the Gleissberg cycle's turning points and its influence on solar irradiance and rotation, were remarkably accurate for:

• The timing and characteristics of Solar Cycle 23 (longer duration, weak amplitude).

• The immediate local terrestrial response (Lake Victoria).

• The prediction of increased ENSO volatility (the powerful 1997-98 El Niño followed by La Niña).

The direct "drop of global earth air and sea temperature" was more of a slowing of warming rather than a dramatic decrease in the subsequent decade, likely due to the overriding influence of anthropogenic warming. However, the fluctuation and change at a turning point principle of the Gleissberg cycle, as highlighted by the paper, seems to have been well-observed.

So, yes, their predictions show a sophisticated understanding of how these solar cycles influence terrestrial phenomena, and many aspects were indeed confirmed by subsequent observations, highlighting the predictive power of studying the Sun's longer-term rhythms.

Thanks for allowing me to waffle on, I will restrict myself to any further comments, applicable to any future activity in the relevant forum thread!

Cheers!

Martin P

1 hour ago, ooberman said:

Marcel, what a top man! Your reply was very encouraging and very helpful!

You allowed me to speak my mind, corrected me where I was wrong and as it was not an x flare then the whole argument for “how did he know” collapses, because he didn't know, and you are right, if a known source of what might be is not revealed then its a pointless exercise.

I do detect an underlying hope that is never mentioned though, I sense an underlying current of hoping for more than just good auroras, an unmentioned longing for a power grid buster to see if we can go it alone, but together, without the external system we are so attached to, and the sun is the only physical entity that has the agency to do such a thing… but will it… its X flare or nothing isn’t it…

There’s certainly more people than ever before who have seen auroras with the naked eye now. I think the key to another Carrington Event must surely depend on a longer cycles maximum than the 11 year cycle, what are your feelings about the Gleissberg Cycle? It certainly seems to point to when the Sun underwent a phase shift in activity, so did humans, late 1770’s birthed Industrial Age, Carrington Eva period birthed Electricity Era, late 1950’s birthed Electrical Appliance Era, and so we have the 2040-50 ish next maximum. Yet power grids in general could not cope with the power demand by that time with mass infrastructure updates, which humans generally not so great at dealing with until its too late.

I found this great white paper on the Gleissberg Cycle, thoughts?

https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Shahinaz-Yousef/publication/267429165_The_solar_Wolf-Gleissberg_cycle_and_its_influence_on_the_earth/links/5ea067ac299bf143893d2d01/The-solar-Wolf-Gleissberg-cycle-and-its-influence-on-the-earth.pdf?origin=publication_detail&_tp=eyJjb250ZXh0Ijp7ImZpcnN0UGFnZSI6InB1YmxpY2F0aW9uIiwicGFnZSI6InB1YmxpY2F0aW9uRG93bmxvYWQiLCJwcmV2aW91c1BhZ2UiOiJwdWJsaWNhdGlvbiJ9fQ

this paper is ancient! I got gemini to see if its predictions were right or not:

Yousef's and Lean's predictions, based on the understanding of the Gleissberg cycle's turning points and its influence on solar irradiance and rotation, were remarkably accurate for:

• The timing and characteristics of Solar Cycle 23 (longer duration, weak amplitude).

• The immediate local terrestrial response (Lake Victoria).

• The prediction of increased ENSO volatility (the powerful 1997-98 El Niño followed by La Niña).

The direct "drop of global earth air and sea temperature" was more of a slowing of warming rather than a dramatic decrease in the subsequent decade, likely due to the overriding influence of anthropogenic warming. However, the fluctuation and change at a turning point principle of the Gleissberg cycle, as highlighted by the paper, seems to have been well-observed.

So, yes, their predictions show a sophisticated understanding of how these solar cycles influence terrestrial phenomena, and many aspects were indeed confirmed by subsequent observations, highlighting the predictive power of studying the Sun's longer-term rhythms.

Thanks for allowing me to waffle on, I will restrict myself to any further comments, applicable to any future activity in the relevant forum thread!

Cheers!

Martin P

The last entry on this thread has some information you may find interesting regarding CGC https://community.spaceweatherlive.com/topic/3906-100-year-cycle-centennial-gleissberg-cycle-cgc/

Edited July 8Jul 8 by Rainman_

4 hours ago, Rainman_ said:

The last entry on this thread has some information you may find interesting regarding CGC https://community.spaceweatherlive.com/topic/3906-100-year-cycle-centennial-gleissberg-cycle-cgc/

Thats great info thanks! It clearly tells me at least, that any major activity is non-dependent on the longer Gleissberg and De Vries cycles… when probability reaches 1, one day, of a grid busting cme, nobody is updating their out of date bushings because no-one else is, and it seems to not be directly anybody’s job to do so… so any powerful cme is, if at all, going to come from a normal 11 year cycle… this cycle or thenext? who knows ☺️

I'm very curious about the new region about to rotate into view. It has a fairly strong footprint on the SOLO magnetogram and has had at least 3 strong flares that I've noticed in the last two days, one currently ongoing with a clear CME heading east.

From the equator downward, over the eastern limb, a remarkable active region begins to be glimpsed from the far side, little visible at the moment.

6 hours ago, Rudolph said:

I'm very curious about the new region about to rotate into view. It has a fairly strong footprint on the SOLO magnetogram and has had at least 3 strong flares that I've noticed in the last two days, one currently ongoing with a clear CME heading east.

Hey @Rudolph Loops now SH around-18 s latitude or so. Might be a returning region.

7 hours ago, Rudolph said:

I'm very curious about the new region about to rotate into view. It has a fairly strong footprint on the SOLO magnetogram and has had at least 3 strong flares that I've noticed in the last two days, one currently ongoing with a clear CME heading east.

Ok this region is extremely interesting. Been a while since I've seen such extreme flux, and now it just spewed out a C8.9. Please continue, we're starving for earthbound CME's 😂

Incredible plasma loops coming off of this incoming region!

2 hours ago, hamateur 1953 said:

Hey @Rudolph Loops now SH around-18 s latitude or so. Might be a returning region.

Is it 14117? It left us on the 30th at S14.

https://pro.spaceweatherlive.com/en/solar-activity/region/14117.html

2 minutes ago, Rudolph said:

Is it 14117? It left us on the 30th at S14.

https://pro.spaceweatherlive.com/en/solar-activity/region/14117.html

Latitude is close, and it’s due per our board but I haven’t been watching the farside south either. Anyway, it seems a more active candidate for the time being. May get a decent shot at HMI and VM soon…

@Parabolic may have been watching farside if he is around

Edited July 10Jul 10 by hamateur 1953

4 hours ago, Rudolph said:

Is it 14117? It left us on the 30th at S14.

https://pro.spaceweatherlive.com/en/solar-activity/region/14117.html

3 hours ago, hamateur 1953 said:

Latitude is close, and it’s due per our board but I haven’t been watching the farside south either. Anyway, it seems a more active candidate for the time being. May get a decent shot at HMI and VM soon…

@Parabolic may have been watching farside if he is around

I believe old AR 4117 still has a week before rotating into view. It should be this region here.

Edited July 11Jul 11 by Parabolic
Grammar

1 hour ago, Parabolic said:

I believe old AR 4117 still has a week before rotating into view. It should be this region here.

Strange. Right now 14117 is on the “ regions due to return” at S 14. However I can’t recall at what point our system posts these notations or removes them for that matter.

2 hours ago, hamateur 1953 said:

Strange. Right now 14117 is on the “ regions due to return” at S 14. However I can’t recall at what point our system posts these notations or removes them for that matter.

I see SWPC includes a three day period for their "due to return" list but I'm not sure if they extend it or not. At the moment its 07/11 thru 07/13. I may also be entirely wrong. However, I'm fairly confident old AR 4117 should be at least 3-5 days away which sort of tracks with the "due to return" list.

On 7/8/2025 at 6:15 AM, ooberman said:

Marcel, what a top man! Your reply was very encouraging and very helpful!

You allowed me to speak my mind, corrected me where I was wrong and as it was not an x flare then the whole argument for “how did he know” collapses, because he didn't know, and you are right, if a known source of what might be is not revealed then its a pointless exercise.

I do detect an underlying hope that is never mentioned though, I sense an underlying current of hoping for more than just good auroras, an unmentioned longing for a power grid buster to see if we can go it alone, but together, without the external system we are so attached to, and the sun is the only physical entity that has the agency to do such a thing… but will it… its X flare or nothing isn’t it…

There’s certainly more people than ever before who have seen auroras with the naked eye now. I think the key to another Carrington Event must surely depend on a longer cycles maximum than the 11 year cycle, what are your feelings about the Gleissberg Cycle? It certainly seems to point to when the Sun underwent a phase shift in activity, so did humans, late 1770’s birthed Industrial Age, Carrington Eva period birthed Electricity Era, late 1950’s birthed Electrical Appliance Era, and so we have the 2040-50 ish next maximum. Yet power grids in general could not cope with the power demand by that time with mass infrastructure updates, which humans generally not so great at dealing with until its too late.

I found this great white paper on the Gleissberg Cycle, thoughts?

https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Shahinaz-Yousef/publication/267429165_The_solar_Wolf-Gleissberg_cycle_and_its_influence_on_the_earth/links/5ea067ac299bf143893d2d01/The-solar-Wolf-Gleissberg-cycle-and-its-influence-on-the-earth.pdf?origin=publication_detail&_tp=eyJjb250ZXh0Ijp7ImZpcnN0UGFnZSI6InB1YmxpY2F0aW9uIiwicGFnZSI6InB1YmxpY2F0aW9uRG93bmxvYWQiLCJwcmV2aW91c1BhZ2UiOiJwdWJsaWNhdGlvbiJ9fQ

this paper is ancient! I got gemini to see if its predictions were right or not:

Yousef's and Lean's predictions, based on the understanding of the Gleissberg cycle's turning points and its influence on solar irradiance and rotation, were remarkably accurate for:

• The timing and characteristics of Solar Cycle 23 (longer duration, weak amplitude).

• The immediate local terrestrial response (Lake Victoria).

• The prediction of increased ENSO volatility (the powerful 1997-98 El Niño followed by La Niña).

The direct "drop of global earth air and sea temperature" was more of a slowing of warming rather than a dramatic decrease in the subsequent decade, likely due to the overriding influence of anthropogenic warming. However, the fluctuation and change at a turning point principle of the Gleissberg cycle, as highlighted by the paper, seems to have been well-observed.

So, yes, their predictions show a sophisticated understanding of how these solar cycles influence terrestrial phenomena, and many aspects were indeed confirmed by subsequent observations, highlighting the predictive power of studying the Sun's longer-term rhythms.

Thanks for allowing me to waffle on, I will restrict myself to any further comments, applicable to any future activity in the relevant forum thread!

Cheers!

Martin P

Hey @ooberman welcome. I reread your recent submission and was a bit disturbed by one element. That any of our members might possibly be hoping for a power grid collapse or something like that. I have a pretty good background as far as my understanding of power grid systems in the USA and Canada 60hz systems. We recently had a NZ member who is a board operator also serving some part of their Network join us too. Honestly for me personally I love aurorae and wouldn’t want to see anyone inconvenienced by these events. Sure a catastrophic situation might happen in the future, however these days an event from aurorae is much less likely than the recent collapse in Spain and Portugal which they hopefully will learn valuable lessons from going forward too. See ya on the Boards. Mike.

8 hours ago, Parabolic said:

I believe old AR 4117 still has a week before rotating into view. It should be this region here.

Raben(fully automated I believe) agrees with you in that it's 14117 and 14118.

Zone of activity over the southeastern limb.

7 hours ago, Rudolph said:

Raben(fully automated I believe) agrees with you in that it's 14117 and 14118.

Thanks! Now I know what Raben is. 🤣

13 hours ago, Rudolph said:

Raben(fully automated I believe) agrees with you in that it's 14117 and 14118.

Glad you also mentioned Old AR14118 (gonna start using the full delegated SN as well) because I honestly only could remember Old AR14117.