The SWPC has issued a G2 watch on the 16th for a pair of filaments that launched on the 12th and 13th and is currently modeled to arrive late on the 15th. (Possibly mostly for the filament on the 13th)

The CME on the 13th gave us a full halo in coronagraph imagery. Hopefully the CME is as fast as the SWPC has it modeled. That may be on the earlier end, just be prepared for an arrival that could go later into the 16th.

6 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said:

The SWPC has issued a G2 watch on the 16th for a pair of filaments that launched on the 12th and 13th and is currently modeled to arrive late on the 15th. (Possibly mostly for the filament on the 13th)

The CME on the 13th gave us a full halo in coronagraph imagery. Hopefully the CME is as fast as the SWPC has it modeled. That may be on the earlier end, just be prepared for an arrival that could go later into the 16th.

I assume this is UTC as im in Australia and be ahead. Probably closer to the 16th for us i guess.

8 minutes ago, DavidB said:

I assume this is UTC

Yep

1 minute ago, Jesterface23 said:

Yep

Thanks thought so.

Almost all predictions for the arrival so far look to be within /15 15Z to /16 01Z. I'm just about as confused as the CME last month at this point.

2 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said:

Almost all predictions for the arrival so far look to be within /15 15Z to /16 01Z. I'm just about as confused as the CME last month at this point.

Hahaha then i have no hope.

Just now, DavidB said:

Hahaha then i have no hope.

Don't worry, the effects of CMEs are different from those of CH CIR\HSS. Geomagnetic storms of sufficient magnitude can last up to several days, if you are unlucky on the first day, you can try the next day.

Just now, Samrau said:

Don't worry, the effects of CMEs are different from those of CH CIR\HSS. Geomagnetic storms of sufficient magnitude can last up to several days, if you are unlucky on the first day, you can try the next day.

Yeah at this stage looks like the night of the 16th here in Australia when do conversion of the UTC.

Some areas are likely to have to see aurora towards the southern hemisphere.

2 minutes ago, Jhon Henry Osorio Orozco said:

Some areas are likely to have to see aurora towards the southern hemisphere.

In this thread we are discussing the upcoming CME from the April 12/13 filament eruption. If you are interested in the current geomagnetic situation, there is a separate thread for that: https://community.spaceweatherlive.com/topic/2816-unspecified-geomagnetic-activity/page/91/#comments

Please take a break and study the forum and its sections, otherwise you may face sanctions from the administration

There is that advantage of slower CMEs. If we manage to get a good, strong flux rope, it will take longer to pass by.

1 hour ago, Jesterface23 said:

Almost all predictions for the arrival so far look to be within /15 15Z to /16 01Z. I'm just about as confused as the CME last month at this point.

This really shouldn’t make me feel good but it does. That smoke ring cme still sticks in my mind!

Why is the WSA-ENLIL prediction a full day ahead of the 3-day forecast?

https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/wsa-enlil-solar-wind-prediction

vs.

https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/3-day-forecast

Am I being dense right now?

Quick question. If the CME is predicted to arrive /15 15Z to /16 01Z., then why is NOAA Dashboard predicting G2 / G1 for /16 15Z to /17 00Z? Is it because they think that only the flux rope will do anything? @NightSky we posted the same question at the same time, LOL

Edited April 14Apr 14 by JessicaF

All I can guess is the SWPC is going off of more than one model run that we can't see. Or maybe it could be an attempted flux rope forecast. I have no idea.

@JessicaF - LOL!

I just got home and started looking at the numbers and I'm not sure if I'm being stupid or just missing something

I think the time created and whome posted the official announcement plays a role. I would go off of whatever was posted most recently. For example: the forecast discussion was the most recent announcement while the ENLIL model was created several hours prior. The forecast discussion looks like it also aligns with the 3 day geomagnetic forecasting as well.

2 minutes ago, Parabolic said:

I think the time created and whome posted the official announcement plays a role. I would go off of whatever was posted most recently. For example: the forecast discussion was the most recent announcement while the ENLIL model was created several hours prior. The forecast discussion looks like it also aligns with the 3 day geomagnetic forecasting as well.

Damn. Looks like the US east coast will not get much then. Europe will be the lucky one. I was ready to drive away from clouds on Tuesday but now I am not sure. One more day to ponder this.

There are no satellites on the way here, right? @Philalethes SOHO (indeed, I meant SoIO) is too far ahead now? So, we will not have more data to make the prediction more accurate, right?

Edited April 14Apr 14 by JessicaF

2 hours ago, JessicaF said:

Looks like the US east coast will not get much then.

I think most of north america will have a good chance even with a slightly early arrival (especially east coast). I personally hope for a late arrival as I'm in the northern plains states, anytime after 02:00:00 04/17 would be ideal.

2 hours ago, JessicaF said:

There are no satellites on the way here, right? @Philalethes SOHO is too far ahead now? So, we will not have more data to make the prediction more accurate, right?

You mean SolO? At least SOHO is stationed at L1 and won't be going anywhere anytime soon, heh. But yeah, SolO is completely gone for those purposes, it's already almost diametrically opposed to us, monitoring the far side now instead. You can see a live diagram of the positions of various satellites here. None currently in position to give us any signs along the way, so at this point we can really only wait for signs like the EPAM starting to rise; other than that wait for impact at L1.

21 minutes ago, Philalethes said:

You mean SolO? At least SOHO is stationed at L1 and won't be going anywhere anytime soon, heh. But yeah, SolO is completely gone for those purposes, it's already almost diametrically opposed to us, monitoring the far side now instead. You can see a live diagram of the positions of various satellites here. None currently in position to give us any signs along the way, so at this point we can really only wait for signs like the EPAM starting to rise; other than that wait for impact at L1.

I didn't realize SolO has already made that much progress around the farside. I should check to see if there's any new data available.

Parameters show activity signals Bz = - 3 nT

23 minutes ago, Jhon Henry Osorio Orozco said:

Parameters show activity signals Bz = - 3 nT

This is within normal fluctuation levels (typically between 5 and -5nT)

If a |Bz| increase coincides with a significant change in Bt and/or Solar Wind, then something is happening,

otherwise it is just the normal "background noise"

Also, Actual CME arrival usually comes right after a marked rise in EPAM.

Edited April 14Apr 14 by Nico

5 minutes ago, Nico said:

Esto está dentro de los niveles de fluctuación normales (normalmente entre 5 y -5 nT).

Si un aumento de |Bz| coincide con un cambio significativo en Bt y/o energía solar y eólica, entonces algo está sucediendo,

De lo contrario, es solo el "ruido de fondo" normal.

Además, la llegada real del CME generalmente se produce justo después de un aumento marcado en el EPAM .

Undoubtedly, it is still very low.

Just now, Jhon Henry Osorio Orozco said:

Undoubtedly, it is still very low.

Then why the comment bringing attention to it?