This post is for everyone to talk about CMEs that are uncertain or not big, also include the arrival of some faint CMEs or CME conbine with CH, HSS

But also, if anyone see aurora at mid latitude, don't shy to sharing, this post is also for some immediately aurora or substorm photo to sharing and help other people decide if worth to go out chasing aurora at that time.

Edited February 28Feb 28 by JlJ
Add important informations

We already have a topic for this. https://community.spaceweatherlive.com/topic/2816-unspecified-geomagnetic-activity/

2 hours ago, Jesterface23 said:

We already have a topic for this. https://community.spaceweatherlive.com/topic/2816-unspecified-geomagnetic-activity/

Ummm:

"Message added by Sam Warfel, 1 yr

Use this thread to discuss any minor questions or unspecified geomagnetic activity. 

For discussion of expected inbound CMEs, or noticeable geomagnetic storms, please create new threads (“X2 CME prediction”, “G3 storming”)

Thank you!"

That's the sticky.

3 hours ago, JlJ said:

This post is for everyone to talk about CMEs that are uncertain or not big, also include the arrival of some faint CMEs or CME conbine with CH, HSS

I recently asked for the same. It's kind of obstructive to try and discuss possible CMEs on this forum since the data usually doesn't tell us the whole story until they've arrived. Creating a new thread for a possible CME is silly since you know no one will reply. And in the meantime, every member will tell you that the CME is not incoming, since most are missed or only theoretical, due to data gaps and imagery issues. And then they arrive and everyone seems totally taken by surprise.

What can we do about this?

Edited February 27Feb 27 by Stella

1 hour ago, Stella said:

Ummm:

"Message added by Sam Warfel, 1 yr

Use this thread to discuss any minor questions or unspecified geomagnetic activity. 

For discussion of expected inbound CMEs, or noticeable geomagnetic storms, please create new threads (“X2 CME prediction”, “G3 storming”)

Thank you!"

That's the sticky.

I recently asked for the same. It's kind of obstructive to try and discuss possible CMEs on this forum since the data usually doesn't tell us the whole story until they've arrived. Creating a new thread for a possible CME is silly since you know no one will reply. And in the meantime, every member will tell you that the CME is not incoming, since most are missed or only theoretical, due to data gaps and imagery issues. And then they arrive and everyone seems totally taken by surprise.

What can we do about this?

AGREE. Last week on Tuesday, spaceweather.com predicted a possible glancing blow and weak CME. Thanks to Tony pointing it out, I did catch a nice display on that night. There was no discussion on this forum regarding this CME, and even when it was happening it was basically quiet here (on that night, auroras were visible as far south as 39N). I understand the way the plasma shapes itself and interacts with the solar wind is just too complex and I understand that it might be difficult to distinguish between a weak CME impact and common irregularities in the solar wind due to multiple factors. However, knowing that there is a possible CME in the mixture would at least alert us to be on a lookout for a surprise. Once one's mind adopts the negative thinking that "it is going to be a miss", it is going to be a miss for that person for sure because they just gave up. My mindset is to err on the side of rather going and seeing nothing and not on "this is near 100% happening, I am going". I am used to this from landscape photography when I try to catch good light at sunset / sunrise. You just need to go when it looks even remotely promising. You need to show up else you will miss some good stuff. It can be frustrating but also rewarding.

I also believe these discussions belong in unspecified geomagnetic activity. Weak transient features in the solar wind have always been discussed in that thread. The trend after weak activity initiates is as follows: "why is X parameter doing this?" someone usually answers with "probably from Y or Z that left the sun on X day" What I feel like will start happening is that some users will ask one question in the old topic and other users will ask the same question in this topic. When there's multiple weak events with low probabilities for reaching earth it's difficult for the forecasters to give a definitive answer as to which will arrive if any will. I'm unsure how this topic will continue to serve the rest of the community especially people who are just becoming interested in spaceweather.

1 hour ago, JessicaF said:

AGREE. Last week on Tuesday, spaceweather.com predicted a possible glancing blow and weak CME. Thanks to Tony pointing it out, I did catch a nice display on that night. There was no discussion on this forum regarding this CME, and even when it was happening it was basically quiet here (on that night, auroras were visible as far south as 39N). I understand the way the plasma shapes itself and interacts with the solar wind is just too complex and I understand that it might be difficult to distinguish between a weak CME impact and common irregularities in the solar wind due to multiple factors. However, knowing that there is a possible CME in the mixture would at least alert us to be on a lookout for a surprise. Once one's mind adopts the negative thinking that "it is going to be a miss", it is going to be a miss for that person for sure because they just gave up. My mindset is to err on the side of rather going and seeing nothing and not on "this is near 100% happening, I am going". I am used to this from landscape photography when I try to catch good light at sunset / sunrise. You just need to go when it looks even remotely promising. You need to show up else you will miss some good stuff. It can be frustrating but also rewarding.

I don't think experienced members like Hagrid and hamateur 1953, Jesterface23, Argemma, Parabolic, , MinYoongi, Philalethes and many others could be surprised by some sudden moderate geomagnetic disturbance. They have been here for so many years and they have discussed the same topics so many times. Sometimes it seems to me that they come here just to support this wonderful forum and its new members, to throw food for thought, to socialize with fellow members. I respect those who try to think outside the box, but for a long time there have been no special changes in solar-terrestrial physics. Everything is reduced to receiving data from space observatories, our observations, calculations, conclusions and forecasts. The aurora on Tuesday described by you is one of the realized forecasts. The SME is also a solar wind, just the nature of its occurrence is different from, for example, a coronal hole. And in order not to miss something interesting, you need to keep an eye on the indicators or at least read SWL notifications, it's that simple really. With the sun, the psychological term “self-confirming prophecy” doesn't work. It is such a complex and unpredictable mechanism that it can surprise you at any second )))

Yes, so https://community.spaceweatherlive.com/topic/2816-unspecified-geomagnetic-activity/ has this note at the top,

The goal for this topic is as below,

6 hours ago, JlJ said:

This post is for everyone to talk about CMEs that are uncertain or not big, also include the arrival of some faint CMEs or CME conbine with CH, HSS

So what is the difference between uncertain geomagnetic activity and unspecified geomagnetic activity?

Keep in mind, if a geomagnetic event turns significant a new topic can be created for it. So, it can start in the other topic, but moved to a new one.

17 minutes ago, Parabolic said:

I also believe these discussions belong in unspecified geomagnetic activity. Weak transient features in the solar wind have always been discussed in that thread. The trend after weak activity initiates is as follows: "why is X parameter doing this?" someone usually answers with "probably from Y or Z that left the sun on X day" What I feel like will start happening is that some users will ask one question in the old topic and other users will ask the same question in this topic. When there's multiple weak events with low probabilities for reaching earth it's difficult for the forecasters to give a definitive answer as to which will arrive if any will. I'm unsure how this topic will continue to serve the rest of the community especially people who are just becoming interested in spaceweather.

You are entitled to that belief... but still, you believe differently than the member who made that sticky on "Unspecified geomagnetic activity" ;)

JessicaF is making the same point as I am, namely that no one here seems willing to discuss the possibility of an arrival unless (and often, even when) one has been officially announced. The irony being that even the "officially announced" arrivals are usually a case of some astronomers best guess. They seem to be having the same issues predicting CME arrivals that all of the seasoned members here have got so why don't we include a topic that's just for that same kind of speculation that astronomers can engage in?

7 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said:

Yes, so https://community.spaceweatherlive.com/topic/2816-unspecified-geomagnetic-activity/ has this note at the top,

The goal for this topic is as below,

So what is the difference between uncertain geomagnetic activity and unspecified geomagnetic activity?

Keep in mind, if a geomagnetic event turns significant a new topic can be created for it. So, it can start in the other topic, but moved to a new one.

The difference is that people discussing uncertain cme arrivals on that topic are being asked to create separate threads, I guess. It's pretty much the policy unless I have misunderstood something.

See the main thread for more details.

The members who are stated as being unsurprised by CME arrivals - I don't doubt that, but ahead of the arrival every attempt at finding out if one is incoming is generally met with dismissal and negative comments. I could go through and list all of the aurora hunters (like myself) who have inquired, "does this proton event / radio transmission / BZ change / solar increase herald an incoming CME" and then be essentially told, "no it's not likely / is bad data / was a far side event" (only to later find out it was headed this way) but any regular reader of this forum will already know that this is the overall trend.

A lot of people come here to hunt aurora nights and it is frustrating to be always given negative answers, and have no easy avenue to discuss more interesting, positive interpretations... Even if they are only speculative! :)

Edited February 27Feb 27 by Stella
To reply to a comment I neglected to answer originally

12 minutes ago, Samrau said:

I don't think experienced members like Hagrid and hamateur 1953, Jesterface23, Argemma, Parabolic, , MinYoongi, Philalethes and many others could be surprised by some sudden moderate geomagnetic disturbance. They have been here for so many years and they have discussed the same topics so many times. Sometimes it seems to me that they come here just to support this wonderful forum and its new members, to throw food for thought, to socialize with fellow members. I respect those who try to think outside the box, but for a long time there have been no special changes in solar-terrestrial physics. Everything is reduced to receiving data from space observatories, our observations, calculations, conclusions and forecasts. The aurora on Tuesday described by you is one of the realized forecasts. The SME is also a solar wind, just the nature of its occurrence is different from, for example, a coronal hole. And in order not to miss something interesting, you need to keep an eye on the indicators or at least read SWL notifications, it's that simple really. With the sun, the psychological term “self-confirming prophecy” doesn't work. It is such a complex and unpredictable mechanism that it can surprise you at any second )))

Here is what I think @Stella is looking for. Watch at 4:45 : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pojd9e2M4mk . She says that there was an Earth-directed eruption on 2/24 but acknowledges that it is hard to separate from all the other events occurring simultaneously, given the limited imagery and data. It would make sense to have a thread "Possible CME from 2/24" even the likelihood is small. In the end, should there be a weak CME in the mix and even though it may get ripped by the HSS or mix with it in a complex way, in the end to most folks (not all, I know) it does not matter if we call it moderate disturbance or CME, those are just labels. The proof is in the pudding, right? There either will be something visible in mid latitudes or not.

BTW, is there a thread where people could post real-time sighting? Something like "Aurora NOW" thread reserved for mid-latitude sightings. People would post only confirmed displays either by themselves in the field or from web cams. Yes, it could also be in the "Unspecified ..." thread but if we had a separate thread, we could get notifications when someone posts in that thread (can we?). The automatized messages "There is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at xyz" and notifications are useful but do not cover everything and are often way too conservative. Last night, the US NE had a beautiful display that flew under the radar.

9 minutes ago, Stella said:

The difference is that people discussing uncertain cme arrivals on that topic are being asked to create separate threads, I guess. It's pretty much the policy unless I have misunderstood something.

See the main thread for more details.

Well, there are 2 different event types, Coronal Mass Ejections and Coronal Holes.

Say something in the solar wind happens. What thread does someone go to? "Is this a CME?" "Is this a CH?" "What is this?"

36 minutes ago, Stella said:

that no one here seems willing to discuss the possibility of an arrival

That discussion occures in the topic of where the event took place.

Maybe we can name this topic "Uncertain CME Arrivals"?

I don't want to be abrasive, but this topic is redundant. I read through dozens of posts in Unspecified Geomagnetic Activity and nearly all of are structured the same as your examples.

1. The first phase for discussing geomagnetic activity will almost always begin in solar activity. Active sunpot groups, filament eruptions, CH HSS, and sometimes even plage are the only sources for creating disruptions in the solar wind. The likely hood for any arrivals starts here.

2. If it's significant enough it will then have its own topic created.

3. If it gets overlooked/missed then users will ask what's causing this G1 storming or why X paramparameters are doing Y. It is guranteed someone will provide an answer with the knowledge at hand.

37 minutes ago, JessicaF said:

is there a thread where people could post real-time sighting? Something like "Aurora NOW

I thought there was but it might have been archived or lost. I would certainly support a topic like that.

Edited February 27Feb 27 by Parabolic

2 hours ago, Stella said:

it is frustrating to be always given negative answers

Negative answers or answers you don't want?

2 hours ago, Stella said:

generally met with dismissal and negative comments

Could you provide an example?

2 hours ago, Stella said:

who have inquired, "does this proton event / radio transmission / BZ change / solar increase herald an incoming CME" and then be essentially told, "no it's not likely / is bad data / was a far side event" (only to later find out it was headed this way)

Again, would you please provide an example?

12 hours ago, Parabolic said:

Negative answers or answers you don't want?

Could you provide an example?

Again, would you please provide an example?

Specifically, I refer to answers that state that no geomagnetic events are coming up even though the data is ambiguous, or even positively pointing to this.

My schedule is quite full but when I get a free moment I will look for a specific instance. Or if I see one whilst browsing I will reference you in my reply so you may see what I meant. It's fair enough to ask for this, since you may not be browsing the same topics as I do.

Edited February 28Feb 28 by Stella

43 minutes ago, Stella said:

Specifically, I refer to answers that state that no geomagnetic events are coming up even though the data is ambiguous, or even positively pointing to this.

My schedule is quite full but when I get a free moment I will look for a specific instance. Or if I see one whilst browsing I will reference you in my reply so you may see what I meant. It's fair enough to ask for this, since you may not be browsing the same topics as I do.

I also wonder who here is so confident ))) in my opinion, there are no such people here, mostly everyone writes: probably, most likely, possibly, my opinion and so on.

Of course, I don't mean to offend anyone, please forgive me if I seem rude. I'm actually a very kind person.

meow

16 hours ago, Samrau said:

I don't think experienced members like Hagrid and hamateur 1953, Jesterface23, Argemma, Parabolic, , MinYoongi, Philalethes and many others could be surprised by some sudden moderate geomagnetic disturbance. They have been here for so many years and they have discussed the same topics so many times. Sometimes it seems to me that they come here just to support this wonderful forum and its new members, to throw food for thought, to socialize with fellow members. I respect those who try to think outside the box, but for a long time there have been no special changes in solar-terrestrial physics. Everything is reduced to receiving data from space observatories, our observations, calculations, conclusions and forecasts. The aurora on Tuesday described by you is one of the realized forecasts. The SME is also a solar wind, just the nature of its occurrence is different from, for example, a coronal hole. And in order not to miss something interesting, you need to keep an eye on the indicators or at least read SWL notifications, it's that simple really. With the sun, the psychological term “self-confirming prophecy” doesn't work. It is such a complex and unpredictable mechanism that it can surprise you at any second )))

We all get surprised! Predictions of CME arrivals are especially difficult. CH obviously a lot easier. The “ stealth” CMEs that Tamitha Skov discusses happen a few times a year. I’m lazy and typically wait for Jester to post his predictions on a new thread. Due to the falling off of activity and a well populated but not super exciting earth side most of us are spoiled ( me too). Gimme an X please!! 🤣🤣🤣

I’m here for the same reason as everyone else. Don’t wanna miss a major event! 😊

2 hours ago, hamateur 1953 said:

We all get surprised! Predictions of CME arrivals are especially difficult. CH obviously a lot easier. The “ stealth” CMEs that Tamitha Skov discusses happen a few times a year. I’m lazy and typically wait for Jester to post his predictions on a new thread. Due to the falling off of activity and a well populated but not super exciting earth side most of us are spoiled ( me too). Gimme an X please!! 🤣🤣🤣

I’m here for the same reason as everyone else. Don’t wanna miss a major event! 😊

I have the opposite opinion. I am here for the smaller ones, the G1s, G0s, and, heck, G-1s if there was such a thing. When something big is coming, it will be all over the media and my no. 1 worry would be c l o u d s rather than fearing that I will not know about it. I am still in a state of a complete and utter disbelief that on Wednesday (Feb 26) at around 9 pm EST Maine (45.7N) had a great and long auroral display with HP in low 20s, Kp 2.3, and Bz either positive (up to 7.5) or near 0. On that night I learned that strong wind, high density, and healthy Bt will beat positive Bz and small HP. After all, what happened 50 minutes at L1 is not necessarily the same what is happening on Earth right now. @Peogauuia and a few others were watching the same web cam on that night. There is more to the substorms than the usual rules of thumb. @Stella in the end, it is up to each one of us to make informed decisions based on feedback from as many sources as possible and decide whether to hunt or stay at home. I personally, would like to see the discussions / speculations thresholds set for lower missed detections while willing to accept higher false alarm rates.

Keep in mind, new topics can be opened. Like right now, people do have things to share about the ongoing CHs and they 100% have the right to create a new topic for the event if they want to. It is just that no one has and everything has pretty much been in the general topic for geomagnetic activity.

1 hour ago, JessicaF said:

我卻持相反的看法。我來這裡是為了那些較小的，G1，G0，還有，如果有的話，G-1。當有大事發生時，各大媒體都會報道這件事，我也不例外。 1.擔心會是浮雲，而不是擔心我不知道這件事。我仍然完全不敢相信，星期三（2 月 26 日）美國東部時間晚上 9 點左右，緬因州（45.7N）出現了一次巨大而漫長的極光，HP 在 20 多秒，Kp 2.3，Bz 為正（高達 7.5）或接近 0。畢竟，50分鐘前在L1發生的事情不一定與地球上現在發生的事情相同。@Peogauuia當晚還有其他幾個人也在觀看同一個網路攝影機。亞風暴的發生不僅限於通常的經驗法則。@斯特拉最終，我們每個人都必須根據盡可能多的來源的回饋做出明智的決定，決定是去打獵還是待在家裡。我個人希望看到討論/推測閾值設定為更低的漏檢率，同時願意接受更高的誤報率。

That's why I want to open this post, reduce the failure chasing experience, If I can know when should I go out to see aurora when should not, that could be better for me

1 hour ago, JessicaF said:

I have the opposite opinion. I am here for the smaller ones, the G1s, G0s, and, heck, G-1s if there was such a thing. When something big is coming, it will be all over the media and my no. 1 worry would be c l o u d s rather than fearing that I will not know about it. I am still in a state of a complete and utter disbelief that on Wednesday (Feb 26) at around 9 pm EST Maine (45.7N) had a great and long auroral display with HP in low 20s, Kp 2.3, and Bz either positive (up to 7.5) or near 0. On that night I learned that strong wind, high density, and healthy Bt will beat positive Bz and small HP. After all, what happened 50 minutes at L1 is not necessarily the same what is happening on Earth right now. @Peogauuia and a few others were watching the same web cam on that night. There is more to the substorms than the usual rules of thumb. @Stella in the end, it is up to each one of us to make informed decisions based on feedback from as many sources as possible and decide whether to hunt or stay at home. I personally, would like to see the discussions / speculations thresholds set for lower missed detections while willing to accept higher false alarm rates.

If you're interested, you can read about it: https://community.spaceweatherlive.com/topic/3627-aurora-with-positive-bz-and-negative-by/

as you can see, it's not a secret, it's just that some people aren't really interested in it )

I think that such insignificant events are not discussed en masse because of their negligible impact on life on earth. Why waste time? And we always learn about dangerous phenomena quickly and scientists will work to minimize possible damage.

37 minutes ago, Samrau said:

If you're interested, you can read about it: https://community.spaceweatherlive.com/topic/3627-aurora-with-positive-bz-and-negative-by/

as you can see, it's not a secret, it's just that some people aren't really interested in it )

I think that such insignificant events are not discussed en masse because of their negligible impact on life on earth. Why waste time? And we always learn about dangerous phenomena quickly and scientists will work to minimize possible damage.

I think a large number/majority of people in the geomagnetic activity section are here because of interest in aurora. Most people aren't tracking geomagnetic storms out of fear it could disrupt daily life, but rather are hoping for an aurora display.

(That said, I thought that was what the unspecified activity thread is for)

23 hours ago, Jesterface23 said:

Yes, so https://community.spaceweatherlive.com/topic/2816-unspecified-geomagnetic-activity/ has this note at the top,

The goal for this topic is as below,

So what is the difference between uncertain geomagnetic activity and unspecified geomagnetic activity?

Keep in mind, if a geomagnetic event turns significant a new topic can be created for it. So, it can start in the other topic, but moved to a new one.

sorry if i misread, but is this not more about uncertain solar activity? isn't solar and geomagnetic completely different categories?

2 minutes ago, linkedwinters said:

sorry if i misread, but is this not more about uncertain solar activity? isn't solar and geomagnetic completely different categories?

This sub-forum is for everything on Earth. Discussions would typically start in the Solar activity sub-forum. There is somewhat of a grey area due to events being in transit, but say the SWPC issues a geomagnetic storm watch, a topic may be started early here in the Geomagnetic activity sub-forum while we wait for the possible event.

2 hours ago, Samrau said:

If you're interested, you can read about it: https://community.spaceweatherlive.com/topic/3627-aurora-with-positive-bz-and-negative-by/

as you can see, it's not a secret, it's just that some people aren't really interested in it )

I think that such insignificant events are not discussed en masse because of their negligible impact on life on earth. Why waste time? And we always learn about dangerous phenomena quickly and scientists will work to minimize possible damage.

@Samrau is there a way to access past data on all three IMF components? I looked at the charts and zoomed out but it only goes back 24h, hence the data from Wed is not there anymore. I would be interested in inspecting By to verify your hypothesis. I understand that due to the 23.5 deg tilt of the Earth's rotational axis, the other components (Bx and By) can play a role. For example, at winter solstice, we would want Bx < 0 and at the summer solstice Bx > 0, and then the corresponding inequalities for By at equinoxes. Let us assume that on Wednesday the entire IMF vector pointed in the y direction (Bz = Bx = 0). (Here, I am assuming we are equinox already) Since Bt was roughly stable at 13, we could get up to Bt * sin(23.5) = 5.2nT "cancellation" of the Earth magnetic field. This is pretty good and could certainly lead to a substorm. Again, this is for the optimal case when the IMF points exactly in the opposite direction of the Earth's magnetic field (I am ignoring the deviation of the dipole model from the rotational axis).

And thank you for pointing out the thread. Looks like an interesting reading. Will read thoroughly.

Edited February 28Feb 28 by JessicaF

4 minutes ago, JessicaF said:

@Samrau is there a way to access past data on all three IMF components? I looked at the charts and zoomed out but it only goes back 24h, hence the data from Wed is not there anymore. I would be interested in inspecting By to verify your hypothesis. I understand that due to the 23.5 deg tilt of the Earth's rotational axis, the other components (Bx and By) can play a role. For example, at winter solstice, we would want Bx < 0 and at the summer solstice Bx > 0, and then the corresponding inequalities for By at equinoxes. Let us assume that on Wednesday the entire IMF vector pointed in the y direction (Bz = Bx = 0). (Here, I am assuming we are equinox already) Since Bt was roughly stable at 13, we could get up to Bt * sin(23.5) = 5.2nT "cancellation" of the Earth magnetic field. This is pretty good and could certainly lead to a substorm. Again, this is for the optimal case when the IMF points exactly in the opposite direction of the Earth's magnetic field (I am ignoring the deviation of the dipole model from the rotational axis).

And thank you for pointing out the thread. Looks like an interesting reading. Will read thoroughly.

you can look it up here.

https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/ru/arhiv.html

10 minutes ago I got a report of a faint aurora borealis at latitude 59. Here is our case, where Bz is north, but high wind speeds are doing their thing.

55 minutes ago, Samrau said:

you can look it up here.

https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/ru/arhiv.html

10 minutes ago I got a report of a faint aurora borealis at latitude 59. Here is our case, where Bz is north, but high wind speeds are doing their thing.

I don't know if this counts but last night at UTC 23:00 there was a pan-sky backlight behind the clouds that was so bright, the morning birds started singing (robins or larks, I'm not sure which they were). They were singing for around 30 mins before they realised "oh f*** it's not dawn, why am I awake??" and went back to sleep. (It was the middle of the night).

It was the spookiest damn thing I've experienced. We don't get ambient light pollution here so I suppose it was aurora related, or else some other geomagnetic phenomenon must've set them off!

Edited February 28Feb 28 by Stella
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