We look to have a full halo CME from AR13757. We'll see what the forecasts are as more imagery comes in, though this this isn't expected to be a large event.

Edited July 23, 20241 yr by Jesterface23
There's always one hidden wrong character in plain sight

16 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said:

We look to have a full halo CME from AR13757. We'll see what the forecasts are as more imagery comes in, though this this isn't expected to be a large event.

That’s a first for me, I have never seen a full halo with a filament eruption. I thought the material was directed north. 

 

18 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said:

this this isn't expected to be a large event.

Is this according to the eruption that wasn’t very powerful or just by looking at LASCO imagery?

6 minutes ago, chronical said:

27 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said:

this this isn't expected to be a large event.

Is this according to the eruption that wasn’t very powerful or just by looking at LASCO imagery?

It looks like we will have a good bulk impact, but the speed is on the slower side.

12 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said:

It looks like we will have a good bulk impact, but the speed is on the slower side.

Oh alright, thanks

Kinda surprised tbh.  

41 minutes ago, chronical said:

That’s a first for me, I have never seen a full halo with a filament eruption. I thought the material was directed north. 

I don't think it was a filament eruption, although I did see some movement in some surrounding filaments in the hours following the eruption.

But yeah, from looking at it and reading the opinions of some forecasters, I agree that it seems like the CME we see in LASCO was from this one, the farside flare seems to have peaked too early.

8 minutes ago, Philalethes said:

I don't think it was a filament eruption, although I did see some movement in some surrounding filaments in the hours following the eruption.

Oh, then what was that little line stretching in the east portion of the region that seemed to lift and erupt as the eruption started? (Sorry for not having imagery, JHelioviewer has the imagery I need and it isn’t functioning.)

Edited July 22, 20241 yr by chronical

My forecast for this CME will be an arrival at L1 during the second half of the 24th UTC. It should be a solid G1 possible.

3 hours ago, Philalethes said:

I don't think it was a filament eruption, although I did see some movement in some surrounding filaments in the hours following the eruption.

But yeah, from looking at it and reading the opinions of some forecasters, I agree that it seems like the CME we see in LASCO was from this one, the farside flare seems to have peaked too early.

im pretty sure this is the correct flare for this CME, 

https://sdowww.lmsal.com/sdomedia/ssw/media/ssw/ssw_client/data/ssw_service_240721_094250_46415/www/SSW_cutout_20240721T1613-20240721T1703_AIA_131-193-171_N15E20_ssw_cutout_20240721_161305_aia_193_N15E20_20240721_161304_m.mp4 
 

looks like a filament eruption to me?

24 minutes ago, Prizma1227 said:

im pretty sure this is the correct flare for this CME, 

https://sdowww.lmsal.com/sdomedia/ssw/media/ssw/ssw_client/data/ssw_service_240721_094250_46415/www/SSW_cutout_20240721T1613-20240721T1703_AIA_131-193-171_N15E20_ssw_cutout_20240721_161305_aia_193_N15E20_20240721_161304_m.mp4 
 

looks like a filament eruption to me?

Parts of the corona was blown off too along with the filament.

I'm not an expert so hopefully someone can correct me on this. But I've noticed lots of eruptive CMEs look like an ARF erupting and "pushing" coronal material away too. Is that actually happening or is something else going on?

noaa goes with G2 

 

4 hours ago, Jesterface23 said:

My forecast for this CME will be an arrival at L1 during the second half of the 24th UTC. It should be a solid G1 possible.

 

And Met Office says G3 at the moment, but that will probably change later today I guess.

36 minutes ago, Malisha Reuvekamp said:

And Met Office says G3 at the moment, but that will probably change later today I guess.

Where do they say that? Their forecast?

Yes.

I will copy some text from Met Office. New update will come in a few hours. (You will have to create an account for more details, and then the section Space Weather Energy)

'Solar Wind /Geomagnetic Activity: Two CMEs in the forecast. First one from 19 July arriving on Day 2 (23 July) with a chance of Chance of Minor Geomagnetic Storm (G1) and the second one from 21 July arriving at the beginning or early on Day 3 (24 July) with a chance of Strong Geomagnetic Storm (G3) conditions. Activity expected to gradually ease on Day 4 (25 July), with a slight Chance of Minor Geomagnetic Storm (G1).'

Edited July 22, 20241 yr by Malisha Reuvekamp

How high do you think the hemispheric power will rise? Around 100GW?

9 hours ago, chronical said:

Oh, then what was that little line stretching in the east portion of the region that seemed to lift and erupt as the eruption started?

I can't say I'm seeing that myself, at least not at the time of the eruption. Could be that I'm just not seeing it properly, but it still looks like the surrounding filament(s) only move a bit over the hours after the eruption. Maybe someone else has a better idea.

5 hours ago, Prizma1227 said:

im pretty sure this is the correct flare for this CME, 

https://sdowww.lmsal.com/sdomedia/ssw/media/ssw/ssw_client/data/ssw_service_240721_094250_46415/www/SSW_cutout_20240721T1613-20240721T1703_AIA_131-193-171_N15E20_ssw_cutout_20240721_161305_aia_193_N15E20_20240721_161304_m.mp4 
 

looks like a filament eruption to me?

Yeah, that would be the right eruption. Not sure I'd call that a filament eruption though, but perhaps there is some academic reason to call the structure that's erupting a tiny filament rather than a coronal loop despite being so small; I do agree that it does look a bit more like a filament than the typical loop, though.

1 hour ago, Manuel said:

How high do you think the hemispheric power will rise? Around 100GW?

That is near impossible to predict, because we do not know how long the bz will be negative, unless there is a HP prediction that I am not aware about

1 hour ago, Philalethes said:

Not sure I'd call that a filament eruption though, but perhaps there is some academic reason to call the structure that's erupting a tiny filament rather than a coronal loop despite being so small; I do agree that it does look a bit more like a filament than the typical loop, though.

SolarHam does also qualify the eruption as a filament one. Next time if it’s unclear I’ll qualify it as a simple eruption, thanks for your help

Edited July 22, 20241 yr by chronical
typo

29 minutes ago, chronical said:

SolarHam does also qualify the eruption as a filament one. Next time if it’s unclear I’ll qualify it as a simple eruption, thanks for your help

I see; they could very well be right. It's not always so clear or easy to tell, so no need to call it anything else on my behalf! I really just can't tell myself, didn't mean to imply that you were wrong, heh.

Seems 50/50. The flaring started before the filament could launch

9 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said:

Seems 50/50. The flaring started before the filament could launch

Yeah, that was my first thought too, at least with regards to the larger filament(s) around. However, looking a bit more at it now, I can see how the erupting structure could be regarded as a small filament too. Perhaps one of the infamous small and short-lived active-region filaments? They are said to be prone to erupting, so I guess it could fit the bill.

Met Office updated, but not a very different  message.

I wonder if they calculate g3 because of the the potential (19th cme) cme arrival *before* the 21th cme, so conditions would already be enhanced, or specifically the 21th cme on its own?

5 minutes ago, Malisha Reuvekamp said:

Met Office updated, but not a very different  message.

I wonder if they calculate g3 because of the the potential (19th cme) cme arrival *before* the 21th cme, so conditions would already be enhanced, or specifically the 21th cme on its own?

They probably calculated G3 because of the possibility of already enhanced conditions from the first CME. 

Forecasts are ranging in travel times from about 2 to 3 days. Without anything enhancing the IMF, that would roughly a range from G3 to G1 respectively.

3 hours ago, Manuel said:

How high do you think the hemispheric power will rise? Around 100GW?

Pretty sure above 50GW, possibly 100GW if lucky!

 

34 minutes ago, chronical said:

They probably calculated G3 because of the possibility of already enhanced conditions from the first CME. 

Yes, which does then mean possible stronger impact.

 

6 hours ago, Malisha Reuvekamp said:

And Met Office says G3 at the moment, but that will probably change later today I guess.

It should be above G1, but at what level, we don't know.

 

8 hours ago, Loganas said:

Parts of the corona was blown off too along with the filament.

I'm not an expert so hopefully someone can correct me on this. But I've noticed lots of eruptive CMEs look like an ARF erupting and "pushing" coronal material away too. Is that actually happening or is something else going on?

I do agree with this, It looks like a combination of the filament and corona

*  *  *

I then did the calculations, as with any CME with a speed above 500km/s, and the following were my results:

The 21.07.2024 10:00 UTC CME with an average speed of 650km/s, and has to travel 1 AU, will cross Earth's orbit in the evening of 23.07.2024
 

Quote

149,598,000 (1 AU) / 650 (avg. speed of CME - as recorded by CACTUS) ≈ 230151 (seconds for the CME to reach Earth's orbit)

230151 sec -> 2.6 days ≈ 2.5 days

21 + 2.5  = 23.5 days (not counting the time of CME launch)

The 21.24.07.2024 21:12 UTC CME with an average speed of 563km/s, and has to travel 1 AU, will cross Earth's orbit in the evening of 24.07.24

Quote

 

149,598,000 (1 AU) / 563 (avg. speed of CME - as recorded by CACTUS) ≈ 265716 (seconds for the CME to reach Earth's orbit)

265716 sec -> 3.0 days = 3 days

21 + 3  = 24 days (not counting the time of CME launch)

The 21.24.07.2024 23:24 UTC CME with an average speed of 582km/s, and has to travel 1 AU, will cross Earth's orbit in the evening of 24.07.24

Quote

 

149,598,000 (1 AU) / 582 (avg. speed of CME - as recorded by CACTUS) ≈ 257041 (seconds for the CME to reach Earth's orbit)

257041 sec -> 2.9 days ≈ 3 days

21 + 2.5  = 24 days (not counting the time of CME launch)

 

The 21:12 UTC and 23:24 UTC CMEs will have caught up to each other by the time it reaches the Earth's orbit, as the slightly faster one was launched a little later than the slower one.

So it might be a double CME impact in the same day?