Partial Halo CME 2024/06/29 16:00

[Cokelley]

I'm posting this partial halo CME detected by cactus on 6/29 because it looks very similar to the filament eruption that caused the unexpected g4 storm a couple of days ago.

I have no idea if this was a filament eruption or a flare produced CME but I am posting here so we can discuss this particular CME in light of the event on 6/28

 

Thanks in advance for everyone's insight

 

https://www.sidc.be/cactus/out/CME0025/CME.mp4

 

also here is the CME from 6/25 that produced the g4 storm for comparison

https://www.sidc.be/cactus/out/CME0002/CME.mp4

[Sunlive123]

1 hour ago, Cokelley said:

I'm posting this partial halo CME detected by cactus on 6/29 because it looks very similar to the filament eruption that caused the unexpected g4 storm a couple of days ago.

I have no idea if this was a filament eruption or a flare produced CME but I am posting here so we can discuss this particular CME in light of the event on 6/28

Mix between high and low proton temperature with high wind density. 

[Tomo]

1 hour ago, Cokelley said:

I'm posting this partial halo CME detected by cactus on 6/29 because it looks very similar to the filament eruption that caused the unexpected g4 storm a couple of days ago.

I have no idea if this was a filament eruption or a flare produced CME but I am posting here so we can discuss this particular CME in light of the event on 6/28

 

Thanks in advance for everyone's insight

 

https://www.sidc.be/cactus/out/CME0025/CME.mp4

 

also here is the CME from 6/25 that produced the g4 storm for comparison

https://www.sidc.be/cactus/out/CME0002/CME.mp4

Twas’ a filament. 

[Jesterface23]

The mods will move it over, but CMEs can be created under geomagnetic activity for the possible upcoming activity.

.............

You can see the event as a  long filament lifting up slowly and launching in solar imagery. There is then a long area of post-arcade loops after the launch.

Welp, this isn't as easy at it once was. You can go on here, https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/IswaSystemWebApp/index.jsp?clear=1, then > Search and click GOES SUVI > Select GOES-P/195 Angstroms > Middle icon at the bottom of time range mode set to /29 12:00Z to /29 19:59Z

[Tomo]

Is a repeat of the 6/28/24 storm possible? The wsa enlil models keep confusing me because of all the different parts and things being updated at different times of day. I know I can’t count on anything but I would like to prepare in advance as I live in some very hilly suburbs and I would probably have to drive an hour for a good, not light polluted show.

[hamateur 1953]

6 minutes ago, Tomo said:

Is a repeat of the 6/28/24 storm possible? The wsa enlil models keep confusing me because of all the different parts and things being updated at different times of day. I know I can’t count on anything but I would like to prepare in advance as I live in some very hilly suburbs and I would probably have to drive an hour for a good, not light polluted show.

I too live in a very light polluted area and need a good hour of advance notice. A bit of advice:  keep a close eye on our Aurora page and especially the magnetometer readings of a site nearest you.  Also the hemispheric strength and bz very important.  As many have noted the KP values may only indicate that ya “ missed the boat”. You should get at least a half hour heads up if you’re attentive to detail.  I rolled into my selected location May 10 just as the storm hit its first major peak!  Was awesome. Good luck.  Mike. 

[Jesterface23]

45 minutes ago, Tomo said:

Is a repeat of the 6/28/24 storm possible?

We would need a perfectly timed CH to get the right parameters. There did happen to be a small CH entering center-disk on the 28th, but it is possible that will come too early. 

[Tomo]

4 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said:

We would need a perfectly timed CH to get the right parameters. There did happen to be a small CH entering center-disk on the 28th, but it is possible that will come too early. 

What is a ch?

[Jesterface23]

1 minute ago, Tomo said:

What is a ch?

Coronal Hole. A High Speed Stream(HSS) comes from then and there is an area of dense protons pushed ahead of it. The area of higher proton density will typically increase the IMF total strength as it passes and that is where we would want a CME to arrive in as it further amplifies the IMF strength.

We are currently in a CH HSS if you look at the solar wind data.

[Tomo]

17 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said:

Coronal Hole. A High Speed Stream(HSS) comes from then and there is an area of dense protons pushed ahead of it. The area of higher proton density will typically increase the IMF total strength as it passes and that is where we would want a CME to arrive in as it further amplifies the IMF strength.

We are currently in a CH HSS if you look at the solar wind data.

Got it, that makes a lot of sense. Would someone mind explaining the different wsa enlil models for me? 

[Sunlive123]

9 hours ago, Jesterface23 said:

Coronal Hole. A High Speed Stream(HSS) comes from then and there is an area of dense protons pushed ahead of it. The area of higher proton density will typically increase the IMF total strength as it passes and that is where we would want a CME to arrive in as it further amplifies the IMF strength.

We are currently in a CH HSS if you look at the solar wind data.

Something is very strange … Yesterday KP 5-6

Leirvogur magnetic observatory Iceland & Kiruna Sweden .

 

 

Edited yesterday at 07:10 AM by Sunlive123

[AndrewB]

2 hours ago, Sunlive123 said:

Something is very strange … Yesterday KP 5-6

Leirvogur magnetic observatory Iceland & Kiruna Sweden .

 

 

Nothing is strange. It could simply be residual disturbances from Friday's storm. But first of all this was a local parameter (K index) from very high latitude Iceland and not the planetary parameter (Kp) that we use to assess global magnetic activity.

[Sunlive123]

40 minutes ago, AndrewB said:

Nothing is strange. It could simply be residual disturbances from Friday's storm. But first of all this was a local parameter (K index) from very high latitude Iceland and not the planetary parameter (Kp) that we use to assess global magnetic activity.

Thanks for answer. But i dont think 2 days in a raw after 28 its disturbance.  Coronograph "is on fire" since 10 days. 

Bz is like rollercoaster nowadays.

[Jesterface23]

2 hours ago, Sunlive123 said:

Thanks for answer. But i dont think 2 days in a raw after 28 its disturbance.  Coronograph "is on fire" since 10 days. 

Bz is like rollercoaster nowadays.

The answer looks to be right there in the image. The Bz went south to about -6nT for several hours.