Parabolic Posted Friday at 02:57 PM Share Posted Friday at 02:57 PM 17 minutes ago, MinYoongi said: But Kp30 shows it for now. i attached a screenshot. maybe the high density? im a bit speechless Looking at low energy protons in ACE data, my guess would be partially due to the ubruptness of the arrival, pretty consistent high density, and prolonged -20bz. I hope I read your question right, just woke up haha 🙂 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Philalethes Posted Friday at 02:59 PM Share Posted Friday at 02:59 PM (edited) 9 minutes ago, Misaka said: I would also have suspected the high density as the reason. If the current values were really through the CME at 22-23z, shouldn't the filament CME that was further west earlier that day have hit STEREO by now? I haven't seen any impact there yet. Perhaps, although that filament eruption looked quite slow. I don't really know at this point, just speculating. There also seems to have been a different eruption after the filament, around 11-12Z on the same day near the center, right underneath where the later smaller CME happened later, maybe that could have something to do with it as well. What I find strange is that there doesn't really seem to be much of a signature in LASCO from either of them, but maybe something would be visible in differenced imagery; maybe a stealth CME of some sort. But as Jesterface says, maybe it's just a SIR; not entirely sure from where though, maybe the small hole that was punched in the corona by the smaller CME? Edited Friday at 03:01 PM by Philalethes someone snuck in a post to prevent auto-merge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sayveon Barber Posted Friday at 02:59 PM Share Posted Friday at 02:59 PM 17 minutes ago, Arman Sargsyan said: Uhm... I mean, it's going down? I think there was some little point when we reached it and now it's decreasing a lot, am I right? You meant HP30 How can you tell it’s going down? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Philalethes Posted Friday at 03:00 PM Share Posted Friday at 03:00 PM (edited) [can be deleted] Edited Friday at 03:00 PM by Philalethes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tniickck Posted Friday at 03:00 PM Share Posted Friday at 03:00 PM (edited) hi yall, haven't seen you in a good while. this is the first G4 from a filament since 1990s Edited Friday at 03:00 PM by tniickck 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arman Sargsyan Posted Friday at 03:02 PM Share Posted Friday at 03:02 PM Just now, Sayveon Barber said: How can you tell it’s going down? One of the obvious reasons is that Aurora decreasing. Second, this kind of short plasmas don't last longer than 4-5 hours, maybe lesser + there is not speed, only density. So I'm guessing that it's decreasing. Hemispheric power also decreasing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted Friday at 03:02 PM Share Posted Friday at 03:02 PM 1 minute ago, tniickck said: hi yall, haven't seen you in a good while. this is the first G4 from a filament since 1990s This might not be from a CME at all. A filament could still be coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sayveon Barber Posted Friday at 03:03 PM Share Posted Friday at 03:03 PM Just now, Arman Sargsyan said: One of the obvious reasons is that Aurora decreasing. Second, this kind of short plasmas don't last longer than 4-5 hours, maybe lesser + there is not speed, only density. So I'm guessing that it's decreasing. Hemispheric power also decreasing Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tniickck Posted Friday at 03:03 PM Share Posted Friday at 03:03 PM Just now, Jesterface23 said: This might not be from a CME at all. A filament could still be coming. the epam shock was pretty obvious Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arman Sargsyan Posted Friday at 03:04 PM Share Posted Friday at 03:04 PM 1 minute ago, Jesterface23 said: This might not be from a CME at all. A filament could still be coming. Could, but also not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manuel Posted Friday at 03:04 PM Share Posted Friday at 03:04 PM It went down quickly 😔 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arman Sargsyan Posted Friday at 03:06 PM Share Posted Friday at 03:06 PM Just now, Manuel said: It went down quickly 😔 ¯\_(ツ) _/¯ What can we do about it, right? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted Friday at 03:06 PM Share Posted Friday at 03:06 PM 7 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said: The delay in travel might actually be closer to 40 minutes. The Bz went positive around 13:20Z, which would be right at the start of that 14:00-14:30Z time frame. Thank you Jester, for taking the time and the patience with me. how much will the positive bz hinder stuff? If its due to the high density not much? (and preconditioning) 1 minute ago, Manuel said: It went down quickly 😔 where do you see it going down=? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arman Sargsyan Posted Friday at 03:07 PM Share Posted Friday at 03:07 PM Just now, MinYoongi said: Thank you Jester, for taking the time and the patience with me. how much will the positive bz hinder stuff? If its due to the high density not much? (and preconditioning) where do you see it going down=? Do you have any Live KP-index graphs? This one is delayed like 5 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isatsuki San Posted Friday at 03:08 PM Share Posted Friday at 03:08 PM 5 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said: This might not be from a CME at all. A filament could still be coming. So does that mean we are missing a filament? Well, it is true that Stereo A did not register an impact, but this sinfulness reminds me a little of the filament that hit us on March 23, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted Friday at 03:08 PM Share Posted Friday at 03:08 PM 1 minute ago, tniickck said: 2 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said: This might not be from a CME at all. A filament could still be coming. the epam shock was pretty obvious I think this CH was acting more of a sponge on the EPAMp preceding a CME. So there should still be a CME coming if the HSS isn't too strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arman Sargsyan Posted Friday at 03:09 PM Share Posted Friday at 03:09 PM Just now, Isatsuki San said: So does that mean we are missing a filament? Well, it is true that Stereo A did not register an impact, but this sinfulness reminds me a little of the filament that hit us on March 23, 2023 Is there any records from CACTus about this one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isatsuki San Posted Friday at 03:12 PM Share Posted Friday at 03:12 PM 3 minutes ago, Isatsuki San said: So does that mean we are missing a filament? Well, it is true that Stereo A did not register an impact, but this sinfulness reminds me a little of the filament that hit us on March 23, 2023 I forgot to say that it was a cme cannibal (there was a fillament in that cme caniball) along with a coronal hole xd 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arman Sargsyan Posted Friday at 03:15 PM Share Posted Friday at 03:15 PM I think this one will decrease for about 10 hours??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manuel Posted Friday at 03:17 PM Share Posted Friday at 03:17 PM 10 minutes ago, MinYoongi said: Thank you Jester, for taking the time and the patience with me. how much will the positive bz hinder stuff? If its due to the high density not much? (and preconditioning) where do you see it going down=? I'm looking at the emispheric power, it went down to 22gw from 100gw and also the disturbance index 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prizma1227 Posted Friday at 03:19 PM Share Posted Friday at 03:19 PM Managed to get a photo from my backyard with my iPhone but then went out to better spot and by the time we got there it was gone 😕 ah well. Next time 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnderTheAnvil Posted Friday at 03:22 PM Share Posted Friday at 03:22 PM 12 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said: I think this CH was acting more of a sponge on the EPAMp preceding a CME. So there should still be a CME coming if the HSS isn't too strong. Is this something I should be excited for tonight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted Friday at 03:29 PM Share Posted Friday at 03:29 PM 1 minute ago, UnderTheAnvil said: Is this something I should be excited for tonight? At this point it is very uncertain, but it wouldn't reach anywhere near G4 anyways. We went from 365km/s to 485km/s HSS velocities so far, and it is possible it may go higher once the CIR passes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arman Sargsyan Posted Friday at 03:32 PM Share Posted Friday at 03:32 PM As I understood, now It's G1 again, sooo... yea I think I was right about decreasing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted Friday at 03:43 PM Share Posted Friday at 03:43 PM ACE's EPAMp is still on the rise at least. Just need to wait and see if anything comes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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