Geomagnetic Storm June 28 2024

[Cokelley]

We have officially reached G2 levels (kp6) as of around 1130 utc for this storm so I am starting a new thread so we can discuss it. 

[Misaka]

DST now at -114

[Jesterface23]

Well, I took a look at everything and this seems to just be a normal CH with a SIR arrival. It first swept through ACE at 09:09Z and DSCOVR at 09:22Z. There doesn't look to be any CME involved with this.

........

All the way to a G3 warning

[Ukrspotter]

Whoa

Wow, not bad for a glancing blow filament

[Philalethes]

11 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said:

Well, I took a look at everything and this seems to just be a normal CH with a SIR arrival. It first swept through ACE at 09:09Z and DSCOVR at 09:22Z. There doesn't look to be any CME involved with this.

........

All the way to a G3 warning

Looking back at the imagery there seems to have been a small eruption almost right in the middle of the disc around 22-23Z on June 25; I would suspect that that's the culprit, but it's hard to make anything out in in the LASCO imagery, although I think I do see some faint ejecta shortly following it on C2.

Looking at it I also notice that the filament that erupted earlier that day was a lot further in on the disc than I thought previously, I guess I never looked that closely at it.

The first one I mentioned is the one Calder refers to here. Definitely looks like some eruption of sorts.

[Manuel]

It arrived at kp7, really not bad, around 100 GW of emispheric power, that's not too bad, the first decent one since the 10th may

[Jesterface23]

3 minutes ago, Philalethes said:

Looking back at the imagery there seems to have been a small eruption almost right in the middle of the disc around 22-23Z on June 25; I would suspect that that's the culprit, but it's hard to make anything out in in the LASCO imagery, although I think I do see some faint ejecta shortly following it on C2.

The problem is the CME must have come from the eastern disk if this was a CME. ACE is to our east, DSOVER is to our west, SA is well out west with no arrival. I don't trust SOHO's data as much with this, but it has a CIR to HSS transition rather than any sort of shock arrival.

Pretty much looking at all of the data, a CME arrival seems to be ruled out.

[Balerion]

Do you guys think it a filament eruption? 

[Jesterface23]

And wow, G4

Edited Friday at 02:20 PM by Jesterface23

[MinYoongi]

9 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said:

And wow, G4

this makes no sense to me. do you have an explanation?

BZ is hammered northward.

Im just really, really confused. If someone can explain it to me i'd be very thankful.

[Jesterface23]

4 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

this makes no sense to me. do you have an explanation?

BZ is hammered northward.

It is probably for the time when it was southward, then the high proton densities and rising velocities.

[MinYoongi]

Just now, Jesterface23 said:

It is probably for the time when it was southward, then the high proton densities and rising velocities.

But Kp30 shows it for now. i attached a screenshot. 

maybe the high density? im a bit speechless

[Ukrspotter]

[Arman Sargsyan]

Uhm... I mean, it's going down? I think there was some little point when we reached it and now it's decreasing a lot, am I right?

6 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

But Kp30 

You meant HP30

[MinYoongi]

3 minutes ago, Arman Sargsyan said:

Uhm... I mean, it's going down? I think there was some little point when we reached it and now it's decreasing a lot, am I right?

You meant HP30

Yep, thank you  I meant HP of course.

@Jesterface23 i found a possible solution but im still confused about 1-2 things.

[Isatsuki San]

13 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

Esto no tiene sentido para mí. ¿Tienes alguna explicación?

BZ es golpeado hacia el norte.

Estoy muy, muy confundida. Si alguien me lo puede explicar se lo agradecería mucho.

I think it's because of the same density

46 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said:

El problema es que el CME debe haber venido del disco oriental si se trata de un CME . ACE está al este, DSOVER está al oeste, SA está muy al oeste y no hay llegada. No confío tanto en los datos de SOHO en este caso, pero tiene una transición de CIR a HSS en lugar de algún tipo de llegada de choque.

Si analizamos todos los datos, parece descartada la llegada de una CME .

Stereo A doesn't record Impact, I think 

[Sayveon Barber]

How can you tell it’s going down

[MinYoongi]

1 minute ago, Isatsuki San said:

I think it's because of the same density

Stereo A doesn't record Impact, I think 

what do you mean by that? Can you elaborate a bit more so i get the context.  

And what do you mean with "same density"? High density like i suspected?

[Misaka]

8 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

But Kp30 shows it for now. i attached a screenshot. 

maybe the high density? im a bit speechless

I would also have suspected the high density as the reason.

1 hour ago, Philalethes said:

Looking back at the imagery there seems to have been a small eruption almost right in the middle of the disc around 22-23Z on June 25; I would suspect that that's the culprit, but it's hard to make anything out in in the LASCO imagery, although I think I do see some faint ejecta shortly following it on C2.

Looking at it I also notice that the filament that erupted earlier that day was a lot further in on the disc than I thought previously, I guess I never looked that closely at it.

The first one I mentioned is the one Calder refers to here. Definitely looks like some eruption of sorts.

If the current values were really through the CME at 22-23z, shouldn't the filament CME that was further west earlier that day have hit STEREO by now? I haven't seen any impact there yet.

[Jesterface23]

16 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

But Kp30 shows it for now. i attached a screenshot. 

maybe the high density? im a bit speechless

There is about a 30 minute delay from ACE to Earth.

Edited Friday at 02:52 PM by Jesterface23

[Arman Sargsyan]

The interesting thing is that didn't refresh from 14:18 UTC ( I mean the KP index )

G4 was like 14:18 UTC, but now is like 18:55 UTC, why?😒

Edited Friday at 02:56 PM by Arman Sargsyan

[MinYoongi]

2 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said:

There is about a 30 minute delay from ACE to Earth.

Yeah but it still makes no sense time wise. maybe im missing something. it makes no sense to me at all, i thought northward BZ will hinder further escalation?

[Isatsuki San]

3 minutes ago, Misaka said:

I would also have suspected the high density as the reason.

If the current values were really through the CME at 22-23z, shouldn't the filament CME that was further west earlier that day have hit STEREO by now? I haven't seen any impact there yet.

This model says it would hit Stereo A first

[Arman Sargsyan]

Just now, Isatsuki San said:

This model says it would hit Stereo A first

As I thought, It was low-speed, high-density plasma... and how the hell they predicted G1😅

[Jesterface23]

Just now, MinYoongi said:

Yeah but it still makes no sense time wise. maybe im missing something. it makes no sense to me at all, i thought northward BZ will hinder further escalation?

The delay in travel might actually be closer to 40 minutes. The Bz went positive around 13:20Z, which would be right at the start of that 14:00-14:30Z time frame.