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AR 3712


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6 hours ago, Yani said:

X flare % down from 10% to 5%. 

 

Forecast are not reliable nowadays...

3712 is more powerful that we think ! Please have a look of shock wave in enclosed video

https://sdowww.lmsal.com/sdomedia/ssw/media/ssw/ssw_client/data/ssw_service_240618_220838_28543/www/EDS_EruptionPatrol_20240618T193005-20240618T203005_AIA_304_XCEN524.4YCEN-433.2_ssw_cutout_20240618_193006_AIA_304__20240618_193005_m.mp4

 

 

3712180624.thumb.gif.b8bddfe353710d28c4d66969b38fd679.gif

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Well, its time is almost up, soon it won't be facing earth, hopefully it'll survive the far side and come back to show us something more.

Just curious, how many earths would fit in this spot? 7/8?

Edited by Manuel
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1 hour ago, Manuel said:

Well, its time is almost up, soon it won't be facing earth, hopefully it'll survive the far side and come back to show us something more.

Just curious, how many earths would fit in this spot? 7/8?

well earth is 170mh
this spot is 1160MH so 6.8 earths

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Seems like this region has only one small delta left 😔. Probably will go down as one of the most disappointing sunspot groups this cycle…especially if the limb of disappointment acts up again.

 

Edit: I should add there’s obviously a chance for it to not disappoint, but as of right now, it seems to be losing complexity quickly.

IMG_8348.thumb.jpeg.6dc2a32d0c408e08f93c4763d38bfb86.jpeg

Edited by Saturnitis
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11 minutes ago, Saturnitis said:

Seems like this region has only one small delta left 😔. Probably will go down as one of the most disappointing sunspot groups this cycle…especially if the limb of disappointment acts up again.

 

Edit: I should add there’s obviously a chance for it to not disappoint, but as of right now, it seems to be losing complexity quickly.

 

Stong shock wave yesterday ! watch video ! 

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7 hours ago, Sunlive123 said:

Nothing out of the normal there. 

 

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7 hours ago, Prizma1227 said:

well earth is 170mh
this spot is 1160MH so 6.8 earths

Just a small note on that, since it's caused a tiny bit of confusion before: 170 MSH would be the total surface area of Earth, rather than the cross-sectional area that you typically see in images where Earth is placed next to sunspots as comparison. The cross-sectional area is exactly 1/4 of that, i.e. ~42.5 MSH.

Not that there's anything inherently wrong with comparing it to the total surface area of Earth, I just recall that this difference confused someone at some point.

This should make the calculation fairly clear.

So going by that exact answer and dividing it by 4 it's actually closer to 42, which shouldn't come as a surprise as being the answer.

On a separate note that's not related to the above (since the posts will merge), here is a lapse of this region over the past 6 days; it's ~60 MB, so caveat carricator.

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3 hours ago, Sunlive123 said:

Stong shock wave yesterday ! watch video ! 

I haven't seen anything "strong" come out of this region yet. It's interesting to me but that's all.

 

11 hours ago, Sunlive123 said:

Forecast are not reliable nowadays...

3712 is more powerful that we think !

Forecast is perfectly reliable, looking at the region, I can see it's not all that complex or "powerful".

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1 hour ago, Parabolic said:

I haven't seen anything "strong" come out of this region yet. It's interesting to me but that's all.

 

Forecast is perfectly reliable, looking at the region, I can see it's not all that complex or "powerful".

NEW ERUPTION !  

https://sdowww.lmsal.com/sdomedia/ssw/media/ssw/ssw_client/data/ssw_service_240619_123906_43399/www/EDS_EruptionPatrol_20240619T181505-20240619T191505_AIA_304_XCEN654.0YCEN-452.4_ssw_cutout_20240619_181506_AIA_304__20240619_181505_m.mp4

 

ssw_cutout_304_context_full.thumb.gif.f0f74497d770f7367d1531e3ba12050e.gif

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4 minutes ago, Ingolf said:

So the today's word would be JET? I really ask what the "thing" in this video is named. It's not a flare. 

I think it's coronal jet to be specific 

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22 minutes ago, Ingolf said:

So the today's word would be JET? I really ask what the "thing" in this video is named. It's not a flare. 

Yeah, looks like a textbook jet to me. Not sure if that's exactly what was being referred to by "protuberance" in that paper, but from some of the descriptions it does sound like it; where did you come across that terminology for it?

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5 hours ago, Philalethes said:

Yeah, looks like a textbook jet to me. Not sure if that's exactly what was being referred to by "protuberance" in that paper, but from some of the descriptions it does sound like it; where did you come across that terminology for it?

This made me laugh because now I have all these "in Germany we don't say" Videos in my mind... probably its because we germans unfortunately often stick to older terminology. The german wikipedia for example explains protuberance and not jets. Its pretty hard when your motherlanguage is permanent avoiding anglicism. I'm in the aviation sector, probably this is the reason why we speak only english there, the words are just missing in our language.   

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5 hours ago, Ingolf said:

This made me laugh because now I have all these "in Germany we don't say" Videos in my mind... probably its because we germans unfortunately often stick to older terminology. The german wikipedia for example explains protuberance and not jets. Its pretty hard when your motherlanguage is permanent avoiding anglicism. I'm in the aviation sector, probably this is the reason why we speak only english there, the words are just missing in our language.   

Oh yeah, that can cause some confusion. Are you thinking about this article? If so I think it's referring to filaments/prominences (or perhaps more specifically to just prominences) rather than jets; after reading a bit more in the older paper I posted I think that one is also referring to that rather than jets, especially given the discussion about them being visible on the limb during eclipses. It also seems to correspond better with the meaning of "protuberance", heh.

Edited by Philalethes
clarification
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42 minutes ago, Philalethes said:

Oh yeah, that can cause some confusion. Are you thinking about this article? If so I think it's referring to filaments/prominences (or perhaps more specifically to just prominences) rather than jets; after reading a bit more in the older paper I posted I think that one is also referring to that rather than jets, especially given the discussion about them being visible on the limb during eclipses. It also seems to correspond better with the meaning of "protuberance", heh.

Yes, I am referring to that wikipedia article. Usually there are a lot of links inside an article where additional infos are explained. This article is just about two different kinds of "protuberance", the additional info in the entry sentence of the article is:

Protuberance occur at the limb ; in smaller dimensions they can occur at the whole sun disc. If they have a dark structure they are called filament. 

Not one single word of a jet. Maybe you have a link to a paper or a website where all these possible structures and eruptions are explained?

Is a prominence and a protuberance the same?

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2 hours ago, Ingolf said:

Not one single word of a jet. Maybe you have a link to a paper or a website where all these possible structures and eruptions are explained?

Is a prominence and a protuberance the same?

Yeah, I'm fairly sure at this point that "protuberance" is just a different term for prominence, which is the same thing as a filament, just viewed over the limb so that you can see it rise above the surface.

I don't know of any single glossary that covers every term that is typically encountered, but this one is fairly good; however, adding to the confusion, the only mention of "jet" there is "surge", which is essentially the same but for cooler plasma (surrounding the jet) that reaches up into the chromosphere, thus also known as a "chromospheric jet", possibly due to being associated with larger jets; you'll notice that there are often several different terms for the same or closely related phenomena, usually based on descriptions of what they look like and/or how they relate to each other in various ways. As we can e.g. read here:

Quote

This review mainly focuses on bigger solar jets, including surges, coronal jets and macro-spicules. Although these jet activities are observed at different scales and temperature ranges, they can be viewed as the same type of solar jets owing to their similar observational characteristics and generation mechanism, i.e. magnetic reconnection-dominated jet-like activities with an inverted-Y structure.

That's another common theme in a lot of Solar activity, similar or same phenomena just on different scales. There's also a brief mention of how "surge" was the original term for any jet (possibly because the largest jets were the most noticeable), which might explain the glossary I linked to above:

Quote

The observation of solar jets dates back to the 1940s; they were dubbed surges in history.

For more on how they are generally classified today I'd see section 2. a), "Morphology and classification", which goes over both historical classification (which might explain many ways terms are still used today) and more contemporary classification from recent observations with better tools.

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11 hours ago, Ingolf said:

This made me laugh because now I have all these "in Germany we don't say" Videos in my mind... probably its because we germans unfortunately often stick to older terminology. The german wikipedia for example explains protuberance and not jets. Its pretty hard when your motherlanguage is permanent avoiding anglicism. I'm in the aviation sector, probably this is the reason why we speak only english there, the words are just missing in our language.   

I can confirm that "protuberancja" in Polish means prominence/filament. Polish science/tech vocabulary is full of old borrowings from English and French that haven't changed as the terminology in those languages changed. Maybe German is the same way 😛

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@Philalethes @Ingolf

Surge and Jet do look the same but I think Surge pertains more to prominence/filaments (I think you mention cooler plasma) where Jets normally occur near active regions or emerging flux. Jets are also a result of magnetic reconnection and usually produce type iii radio bursts (I made a butterfly diagram for the fun of it but can't remember where I saved it so please correct me if I'm wrong).

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