MinYoongi Posted June 16 Share Posted June 16 Just now, Sagatha said: Oh of course. My brain is just not working today Its not common knowledge! I found out years after i started to look at spaceweather. Your brain is working just fine! Update btw: UNSCHEDULED NETWORK OUTAGE published: Sunday, June 16, 2024 08:11 UTC SWPC is currently experiencing an unscheduled network outage and is unable to issue any products, including watches, warnings, and alerts. The estimated time of return to service is unknown. We will provide additional information as it becomes available. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sagatha Posted June 16 Share Posted June 16 1 minute ago, MinYoongi said: Its not common knowledge! I found out years after i started to look at spaceweather. Your brain is working just fine! Update btw: UNSCHEDULED NETWORK OUTAGE published: Sunday, June 16, 2024 08:11 UTC SWPC is currently experiencing an unscheduled network outage and is unable to issue any products, including watches, warnings, and alerts. The estimated time of return to service is unknown. We will provide additional information as it becomes available. Thank you! Hopefully they're up and running soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ester89 Posted June 16 Share Posted June 16 From the way its shining in sdo I would say the region is burning now? Is there another way to know the x-ray flux apart from noaa data? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted June 16 Share Posted June 16 5 minutes ago, Ester89 said: From the way its shining in sdo I would say the region is burning now? Is there another way to know the x-ray flux apart from noaa data? I digged around a lot when they had their last 2 outages and i couldnt find anything. I think i even made a note about this in my "noaa data loss" topic. We can switch over to there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunlive123 Posted June 16 Share Posted June 16 8 hours ago, Arman Sargsyan said: I don’t think it would develop as much, so it can flare x15’s. In my opinion, it’s already peaking , and loosing flares. I think it would eventually disappear with no unique effects… Disappear ? There is a sigmoid inside β-γ-δ – Bêta-Gamma-Delta. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheRealVanille Posted June 16 Share Posted June 16 I have analysed the last hours but we havent missed anything to big specialy out of this region till now I think. Just a moderate C-Flare accured but we saw that a lot the last days. Also on the right side of the sun there might be a small CME but thats another story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted June 16 Share Posted June 16 4 minutes ago, TheRealVanille said: I have analysed the last hours but we havent missed anything to big specialy out of this region till now I think. Just a moderate C-Flare accured but we saw that a lot the last days. Also on the right side of the sun there might be a small CME but thats another story. How do you know its moderate C-Flare if theres no data? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheRealVanille Posted June 16 Share Posted June 16 The App im using got a Flare Detector which is analysing the sunspot and is giving a prognosis of how strong the flare was (even without data you can see a small Flare at the time of 8:00 - 8:45 UTC which pretty much was the same like other C-Flares). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manuel Posted June 16 Share Posted June 16 Which app is that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheRealVanille Posted June 16 Share Posted June 16 Esa Helioviewer its still in beta and you need to download it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ukrspotter Posted June 16 Share Posted June 16 Could someone explain what is going on with region 3712? Why did it shrink in size as suddenly as it had grown yesterday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Misaka Posted June 16 Share Posted June 16 Unfortunately, the region is currently becoming more and more organized and structured. This sadly reduces the flare potential. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpaceWeather5464 Posted June 16 Share Posted June 16 12 minutes ago, Misaka said: Unfortunately, the region is currently becoming more and more organized and structured. This sadly reduces the flare potential. It looks super active on Goes 131 angstroms thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mozy Posted June 16 Share Posted June 16 15 minutes ago, Misaka said: Unfortunately, the region is currently becoming more and more organized and structured. This sadly reduces the flare potential. Yeah this region has been struggling hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tomo Posted June 16 Share Posted June 16 1 hour ago, Misaka said: Unfortunately, the region is currently becoming more and more organized and structured. This sadly reduces the flare potential. I think I’m starting to see some positive spots developing on the westernmost part that were NOT there yesterday, let’s hope they continue to grow. Also does anyone have the correct size for it because it clearly did not shrink while I was sleeping? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted June 16 Share Posted June 16 26 minutes ago, Tomo said: I think I’m starting to see some positive spots developing on the westernmost part that were NOT there yesterday, let’s hope they continue to grow. Also does anyone have the correct size for it because it clearly did not shrink while I was sleeping? Westernmost for us or on the Sun. Can you maybe point out where exactly you see new spots forming? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Philalethes Posted June 16 Share Posted June 16 (edited) 4 hours ago, Tomo said: Also does anyone have the correct size for it because it clearly did not shrink while I was sleeping? I'm not sure if there is any reliable live data on that, and I'm unsure where SWL gets their numbers on that front (actually, looking at it now I see it's probably from SWPC's SRS), but I guess it can depend a bit on exactly what you choose to include and count. You can e.g. get a live measurement for the region from the SHARPs, like here, but I think it overcounts the area relative to what we're used to a bit, and includes a somewhat wider part around the penumbrae as the active part; as you can tell, it's now listing the area as ~1557 MSH as per the latest measurement when I write this, which I think is more than what you'd get if you were to be a bit stricter and just count the umbrae and penumbrae. Alternatively you can do a rough count yourself as per what I've described here; I'm no longer regularly uploading the overlaid grids, but the transparent grid is still there so that you can use it to do an overlay yourself and count squares. I did upload an overlaid grid in this case just for illustration purposes, here. Looking at this I get a rough count of about 100 small squares (each with a width and height of 0.5 degrees, for an area of 0.25 square degrees) of umbrae and penumbrae, which means 25 square degrees in total, so 25 * ~48.5 for an area of roughly 1212.5 MSH. That's quite large overall, even larger than the one discussed in that post, but like that one this one isn't very complex either. I'd added some corrections to this to account for the distortion of the grid, but I need to figure out a bit more clearly how to account for them, so I'll just remove it for simplicity's sake for now. I think the above should give a close approximation, but it might not; I'll get back to that in that other thread once I conclude what's right. Edited June 16 by Philalethes simplicity 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hamateur 1953 Posted June 16 Share Posted June 16 12 hours ago, TheRealVanille said: The App im using got a Flare Detector which is analysing the sunspot and is giving a prognosis of how strong the flare was (even without data you can see a small Flare at the time of 8:00 - 8:45 UTC which pretty much was the same like other C-Flares). Interesting and typically I watch the 131ang pic for relative brightness and peek at either the synoptic map or our AR page for direct identification. It’s far quicker for me anyway. Although I couldn’t be expected to gauge levels as well. Mr/Mrs ice cream sounds like good plan too. Backinabit haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Adohran Posted June 16 Share Posted June 16 5 minutes ago, hamateur 1953 said: Interesting and typically I watch the 131ang pic for relative brightness and peek at either the synoptic map or our AR page for direct identification. It’s far quicker for me anyway. Although I couldn’t be expected to gauge levels as well. Mr/Mrs ice cream sounds like good plan too. Backinabit haha. Watching the synoptic map is definitely something I consider doing in the future, never thought of that personally. Thanks for bringing that to my attention. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yani Posted June 16 Share Posted June 16 53 C flares for this sunspot group. Anyone able to give any in-depth look at how the sunspot is doing complexity wise or shear wise? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Adohran Posted June 17 Share Posted June 17 2 hours ago, Yani said: 53 C flares for this sunspot group. Anyone able to give any in-depth look at how the sunspot is doing complexity wise or shear wise? From a complexity standpoint it doesn't appear that interesting to me at least. Very split polarity. Definitely seperated over the last couple days. A bit of mixing in the middle but nothing too special Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sagatha Posted June 17 Share Posted June 17 This regions activity is not unlike my highschool experience. Has a little bit of promise but keeps getting Cs 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parabolic Posted June 17 Share Posted June 17 4 hours ago, Yani said: 53 C flares for this sunspot group. Anyone able to give any in-depth look at how the sunspot is doing complexity wise or shear wise? Shear is pretty average but it's slowly increasing. I pointed out the to areas that seem promising right now. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hamateur 1953 Posted June 17 Share Posted June 17 6 hours ago, Adohran said: Watching the synoptic map is definitely something I consider doing in the future, never thought of that personally. Thanks for bringing that to my attention No problem @Adohran A quick look at the yellow sun for regions too. The synoptic is great if you are following a region in particular through its evolution. It also helps you get a feel for surface conditions. Mike Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prizma1227 Posted June 17 Share Posted June 17 (edited) 3 hours ago, Parabolic said: Shear is pretty average but it's slowly increasing. I pointed out the to areas that seem promising right now. sorry for the "noob" questions, when looking at maps like this and the HMI colour maps to see the complexity , im assuming its the polarity of the sunspot? So Blue/white is pushing mass out of the sun and red/black is almost likea "hole" and going into the sun? so if you see a blue patch surrounded by a red patch there is a higher chance of large flares as it points to instability? or am i totally on the wrong track. with the Sheer maps as per the picture you've posted its the same thing but its showing more detail as to the exact direction of the of components within those polarities and the directions they are moving to more accurately forecast/detect where the sunspot is going? Edited June 17 by Prizma1227 i cant spell or form a proper sentence.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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