イリヤ Posted May 12 Share Posted May 12 37 minutes ago, MinYoongi said: When is "end of the day" End of the UTC day? And what do they say KP wise? And who is "russians" reffering to specifically? I think they mean by the “end of the day” is 21:00-00:00 UTC+3. Noticed, that they working only with UTC+3 time and it looks like they using that time for Russian population. It is easy for us to coordinate with Moscow time, than UTC, cause in some parts there’s a difference in time like 8-12 hours with UTC. Personally, i prefer Moscow time, cause since childhood i get used to add 5 hours more than, 8 hours. You can use “contact/контакт” button if you would like to ask them, but looking at their ENG support, it is better to translate your question into Russian language and maybe you will get your answer sooner. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carrington45X Posted May 12 Share Posted May 12 So, could storms continue into the night on May 12th and early May 13th? Are we possibly looking at a 3-day event?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isatsuki San Posted May 12 Share Posted May 12 1 minute ago, Carrington45X said: Entonces, ¿podrían las tormentas continuar hasta la noche del 12 de mayo y principios del 13 de mayo? ¿Estamos posiblemente ante un evento de 3 días? well there is also a probability that it will be the 13th but hey, we can only wait to see when it arrives Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arjemma Posted May 12 Share Posted May 12 (edited) 18 hours ago, Isatsuki San said: Here is my stupid question, it seems that the temperature drops when the wind increases. I don't know if it's an error or something, but could it be the flow rope? The temperature fluctuates depending on what the solar wind is containing. For example the core of solar storms (the flux rope) has a lower temperature since the plasma is colder. During CH HSS arrival the temperature usually increases and then decreases. So it can be a number of things. It does look like we were in the core of a CME earlier today (starting at around 03 UTC and went through the night. Now it looks like we are out of the core. Here you can see when we entered the core as the temperature dropped and the bz became more stable. (I have been away all day so I haven't studied the data more closely to see if we were in a core but it does look like it on fast inspection). So I'm not sure if this is a core but this is usually how it looks like when we enter a core of a CME so it's a good example either way. Edited May 12 by arjemma Added temperature chart 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Helliarc Posted May 12 Share Posted May 12 54 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said: It is either the X5.89 CME arrival or a HSS behind a prior CME. All we can do is wait and see if another shock arrival comes. I'm imagining that the initial wave collected all of the "junk" in path, and that's all the density we saw in the initial wave... consecutive waves will be low density but high speed. We're basically entering "clean" space, so all we'll see is low density high winds, even with a direct X level impact... unless we go super negative polarity where all the CME material is contained, but I think the mass of the CMEs are projected south of our orbital plane. The only forward looking visual impacts we'll experience would have to come from future CMEs, not anything that has occurred from 3664. 3664 is done in regards to the planet earth... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted May 12 Share Posted May 12 Why did they lower the chance for today to G3 and now back to G4? Im so confused!! I see nothing in the solar wind! and the day (utc) is almost over! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isatsuki San Posted May 12 Share Posted May 12 (edited) 29 minutes ago, Helliarc said: Me imagino que la onda inicial recogió toda la "basura" en su camino, y esa es toda la densidad que vimos en la onda inicial... las ondas consecutivas serán de baja densidad pero de alta velocidad. Básicamente estamos entrando en un espacio "limpio", así que todo lo que veremos serán vientos fuertes de baja densidad, incluso con un impacto directo de nivel X... a menos que vayamos a una polaridad súper negativa donde está contenido todo el material CME , pero creo que La masa de las CME se proyecta al sur de nuestro plano orbital. Los únicos impactos visuales prospectivos que experimentaremos tendrían que provenir de futuras CME , no de nada que haya ocurrido desde 3664. 3664 se hace con respecto al planeta Tierra... I will tell you a little curious fact, first the cme the longer it takes, the more they will lose their speed, so if it arrives later the cme x 5.89 is much slower than your predicted the noaa. 6 minutes ago, MinYoongi said: Why did they lower the chance for today to G3 and now back to G4? Im so confused!! I see nothing in the solar wind! and the day (utc) is almost over! remember minyogi that there are always possibilities and also so that the electrical network service is attentive when the cme arrives Edited May 12 by Isatsuki San Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted May 12 Share Posted May 12 3 minutes ago, Isatsuki San said: I will tell you a little curious fact, first the cme the longer it takes, the more they will lose their speed, so if it arrives later the cme x 5.89 is much slower than your predicted the noaa. remember minyogi that there are always possibilities and also so that the electrical network service is attentive when the cme arrives yes but earlier their website showed G3 and now G4 but the day is over in a few hours. i wonder / want to know what makes them up it again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AurorahunterPA Posted May 12 Share Posted May 12 (edited) 21 minutes ago, MinYoongi said: yes but earlier their website showed G3 and now G4 but the day is over in a few hours. i wonder / want to know what makes them up it again Agreed, I don't feel very optimistic about CME impacts tonight so I'm also curious as to why NOAA continues to hold the g4 storming possibility. Id expect g1 or g2 but unless there is more direct, denser ejecta g4/5 seems to me unlikely to happen again. Also I'm just confused in general if there are still more CMES floating around waiting to create another storm or not, because it flared all day Friday too??? Did they all somehow hit Friday???? Edited May 12 by AurorahunterPA 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balarius Posted May 12 Share Posted May 12 The Aurora potential is pretty rapidly increasing for tonight, im kind of surprised Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted May 12 Share Posted May 12 3 minutes ago, Balarius said: The Aurora potential is pretty rapidly increasing for tonight, im kind of surprised due to what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balarius Posted May 12 Share Posted May 12 1 minute ago, MinYoongi said: due to what? Not a clue! I am very new at tracking this kind of thing and still learning a thing or fifty. Just looking at current observations of the Aurora situation. The GW rating (basically aurora strength) just jumped 16 points from 60 to 76 in 5 minutes. Which from what I understand is quite a significant reading. If that strength holds out for 4 or 5 more hours we will absolutely see lights in much of the Northern Half of the USA should weather permit. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dev3770 Posted May 12 Share Posted May 12 It's thanks to the slightly negative Bz and very high solar wind speed. I guess if Bz can turn even more negative we can hit storm levels very quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Helliarc Posted May 12 Share Posted May 12 Just now, Balarius said: Not a clue! I am very new at tracking this kind of thing and still learning a thing or fifty. Just looking at current observations of the Aurora situation. The GW rating (basically aurora strength) just jumped 16 points from 60 to 76 in 5 minutes. Which from what I understand is quite a significant reading. If that strength holds out for 4 or 5 more hours we will absolutely see lights in much of the Northern Half of the USA should weather permit. Nothing energy wise had been observed that would support that. The models have all shown that the mass of density has already moved on and the only thing we're going to experience in the near future is high winds with nothing in them. The amount of energy needed to "push" the magnetosphere simply isn't there. To get these "spectacular" aurora, you need to move the magnetosphere back, cause a high lateral magnetic disturbance, and contain a LOT of "Density". On top of that the storm has to be negatively charged. There's nothing arriving that has any capability of this. It's done. The storm is gone. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balarius Posted May 12 Share Posted May 12 2 minutes ago, Helliarc said: Nothing energy wise had been observed that would support that. The models have all shown that the mass of density has already moved on and the only thing we're going to experience in the near future is high winds with nothing in them. The amount of energy needed to "push" the magnetosphere simply isn't there. To get these "spectacular" aurora, you need to move the magnetosphere back, cause a high lateral magnetic disturbance, and contain a LOT of "Density". On top of that the storm has to be negatively charged. There's nothing arriving that has any capability of this. It's done. The storm is gone. I dont know nearly enough to debate or provide a counter argument, so ill just have to hope you're wrong! (no offense) 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted May 12 Share Posted May 12 We might be in a flux rope. It just doesn't look very pretty 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Helliarc Posted May 12 Share Posted May 12 3 minutes ago, Balarius said: I dont know nearly enough to debate or provide a counter argument, so ill just have to hope you're wrong! (no offense) Hope is fun. But don't let hope blind the truth. Go look at the conditions that existed when the Aurora were visible in Florida about 40 hours ago. Compare those to right now and the projections over the next 24 hours. The satellite instruments we have in space are pretty awesome, there's no spooky hidden CME hiding from us ready to strike the moment we let our guard down. Those are extremists holding on to viewers as long as they can before the world moves on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted May 12 Share Posted May 12 4 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said: We might be in a flux rope. It just doesn't look very pretty Interesting! Do you go just by parameters, temp or something else? I've seen a CH as a suggestion on twitter. i'll link the tweet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balarius Posted May 12 Share Posted May 12 Just now, Helliarc said: Hope is fun. But don't let hope blind the truth. Go look at the conditions that existed when the Aurora were visible in Florida about 40 hours ago. Compare those to right now and the projections over the next 24 hours. The satellite instruments we have in space are pretty awesome, there's no spooky hidden CME hiding from us ready to strike the moment we let our guard down. Those are extremists holding on to viewers as long as they can before the world moves on. To be fair, I come from the perspective of living in Northern Maine where I have a much...MUCH higher likelihood of seeing something than just about anyone in the lower 48 (North Midwest State chunks aside) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arctic Anomaly Posted May 12 Share Posted May 12 14 hours ago, hamateur 1953 said: Yes. Absolutely! My PLE Persistent Latitude Envy doesn’t extend into our northern summers. However I have it on good authority that Australia got quite a show as it’s winter down under now. Never thought I'd see the lights of Melbourne/Philip Bay beneath aurora. Good press coverage today in Aussie tabloids. Check out the Facebook page for Aurora Australis Tasmania ... great pics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arman Sargsyan Posted May 12 Share Posted May 12 Hey everybody. I'm not really good at this events. But I'm scared a little bit. Because I've already done sliding every page from 2003 and to this month and saw nothing longer than this, a lot of increasing and x storms. Is this potentially dangerous? Like really bad thing, I can't imagine... I'm little worried so I want to know what is happening and when this unordered events will go away? If someone can explain me, I'll be so happy. TY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Glowman Posted May 12 Share Posted May 12 So we are in they Eye of the MotherDay Storm, just without skylights... Just to be more informative: One of the craziest modeling which I saw for recent days 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arman Sargsyan Posted May 12 Share Posted May 12 @Glowman But is it really bad, I mean I think you didn't answerd me... what would be in future, is it gonna be okay, or something bad? The question is general... Like is Sun okay? Is graphs will be calm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arctic Anomaly Posted May 12 Share Posted May 12 (edited) 6 hours ago, Merlin said: At least from 63° I was still able to see some quite nice shapes, but the contrast is not as good as in winter. Thanks, Merlin. From 60N in Southcentral Alaska we had persistent cloud cover so I couldn't contribute ... just make the general observation that our "white night" (the "Twilight Zone" of the subarctic) prevents us from seeing anything close those amazing contributions from folks "down south." Edited May 12 by Arctic Anomaly poor grammar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted May 12 Share Posted May 12 6 minutes ago, Arman Sargsyan said: Hey everybody. I'm not really good at this events. But I'm scared a little bit. Because I've already done sliding every page from 2003 and to this month and saw nothing longer than this, a lot of increasing and x storms. Is this potentially dangerous? Like really bad thing, I can't imagine... I'm little worried so I want to know what is happening and when this unordered events will go away? If someone can explain me, I'll be so happy. TY We already made it through 2 rounds of Kp9 already. There is nothing to fear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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