Misaka Posted May 12 Share Posted May 12 (edited) 5 minutes ago, helios said: SOHO is also old (even older than ACE) and we still have no replacement for a coronagraph in L1 (as far as I know, or do we?) GOES U will launch in June with a new coronagraph instrument. Edited May 12 by Misaka 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danderson400 Posted May 12 Share Posted May 12 I don't know how long this sunspot can be flaring though, it's lost several magnetic delta configurations, as well as area and spots, however, the largest delta remains (don't be shocked if this decays on the farside) and consists of a large area of positive polarity flux sandwiched between negative polarity areas (this too won't survive, i believe). So aurora watchers, be ready to be disappointed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted May 12 Share Posted May 12 15 minutes ago, Maciej Dunst said: Any news why stereo a is down? Stereo-A is not down. last data received 10 minutes ago. but stereo-a sometimes has hours of not sending data to dump images, do bakeouts, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zach Allen Posted May 12 Share Posted May 12 9 minutes ago, danderson400 said: I don't know how long this sunspot can be flaring though, it's lost several magnetic delta configurations, as well as area and spots, however, the largest delta remains (don't be shocked if this decays on the farside) and consists of a large area of positive polarity flux sandwiched between negative polarity areas (this too won't survive, i believe). So aurora watchers, be ready to be disappointed. It's a good thing the upcoming limb looks promising! There's already an almost brand new beta gamma approaching dead center for us and looks to only be getting stronger, plus all that activity from the side we will be getting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
helios Posted May 12 Share Posted May 12 15 minutes ago, Misaka said: GOES U will launch in June with a new coronagraph instrument. That's great! Hopefully with better realtime coverage than SOHO/LASCO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nathan Majors Posted May 12 Share Posted May 12 So are we looking at g4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Novarupta Posted May 12 Share Posted May 12 Becoming increasingly unlikely unfortunately. SWPC downgraded their forecast to G3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marcel de Bont Posted May 12 Author Share Posted May 12 Folks, remember this topic is about the geomagnetic conditions right now and of the past few days/the possible incoming coronal mass ejections. Discussions about sunspots, solar flares and incoming sunspot regions go here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solarflaretracker200 Posted May 12 Share Posted May 12 3 hours ago, coinpeace said: Ooo just for a moment there “Oops I tripped” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted May 12 Share Posted May 12 When it comes to the sheaths of a CME, throughout the events overall, we are seeing the importance of solar wind density. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Members only Posted May 12 Share Posted May 12 15 hours ago, Jesterface23 said: With the velocities now reaching near 1000km/s, CME #5 (last CME on the 9th) and CME #6 (first CME on the 10th) likely arrived together at L1 at around /11 18:00Z. The arrivals are less dense, so it is somewhat not a surprise the IMF strength is fairly low. does anyone think we reached g5 this weekend because the magnetic field is weaker? Those weren’t the fastest or biggest cme’s/ flares. Or was it more because they all arrived around the same time, which made them more intense? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Philalethes Posted May 12 Share Posted May 12 3 minutes ago, Members only said: does anyone think we reached g5 this weekend because the magnetic field is weaker? Extremely unlikely, given how the geomagnetic field is 1% weaker than in 2003. 3 minutes ago, Members only said: Or was it more because they all arrived around the same time, which made them more intense? It was a combination of that and extremely consistent negative Bz. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted May 12 Share Posted May 12 2 minutes ago, Members only said: does anyone think we reached g5 this weekend because the magnetic field is weaker? Those weren’t the fastest or biggest cme’s/ flares. Or was it more because they all arrived around the same time, which made them more intense? I'd agree with the CME speeds varied from high to moderate range, not extreme. The strong southward Bz component of the CMEs and high density was the main factor in reaching G5, with those two very strong IMF shock arrivals. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Glowman Posted May 12 Share Posted May 12 (edited) Very strange divergence of predictions Yesterday: NOAA - predicted G5 for today Russians - predicted the end of event Today: NOAA - change predictions to maxG3 Russians - tells about recalculation and massive strike of X5.8 by end of the day (UTC+3) Also watched about 10 different prediction of ENLIL model, but they are so different each time - that it doesn't make a sense As for me - expecting arrival of X5.8 in 40-60 hours from the flux, but which part of this CME will touch the Earth have no idea (here was mentioned of some western direction) However Big Spot Area will return in a 10-15 days) Edited May 12 by Glowman Typo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Adrian Kobyłecki Posted May 12 Share Posted May 12 Honestly, g4 from 10/05 is enough for me. The fun is just beginning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sypior213 Posted May 12 Share Posted May 12 it seems that there is something arriving, the speed is up and Bz is fluctuating a lot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marcel de Bont Posted May 12 Author Share Posted May 12 8 minuten geleden, sypior213 zei: it seems that there is something arriving, the speed is up and Bz is fluctuating a lot This nothing, we are in a fast solar wind regime because of the CMEs that cleared a nice clear path but we are no longer in a magnetic cloud. Nothing on STEREO either just yet. Europe can go to bed early tonight. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sypior213 Posted May 12 Share Posted May 12 5 minutes ago, Marcel de Bont said: This nothing, we are in a fast solar wind regime because of the CMEs that cleared a nice clear path but we are no longer in a magnetic cloud. Nothing on STEREO either just yet. Europe can go to bed early tonight. oh, thanks for explaining. I dont know I just feel like there needs to be a good ending to this geomagnetic storm (I know that it doesnt need one because its already great but yeah) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted May 12 Share Posted May 12 29 minutes ago, Glowman said: Russians - tells about recalculation and massive strike of X5.8 by end of the day (UTC+3) When is "end of the day" End of the UTC day? And what do they say KP wise? And who is "russians" reffering to specifically? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hamateur 1953 Posted May 12 Share Posted May 12 8 minutes ago, Marcel de Bont said: This nothing, we are in a fast solar wind regime because of the CMEs that cleared a nice clear path but we are no longer in a magnetic cloud. Nothing on STEREO either just yet. Europe can go to bed early tonight. Thanks for explaining the radical wind speed differential @Marcel de Bont It is amazing how the interplanetary medium was so completely swept clean!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marcel de Bont Posted May 12 Author Share Posted May 12 2 minuten geleden, sypior213 zei: oh, thanks for explaining. I dont know I just feel like there needs to be a good ending to this geomagnetic storm (I know that it doesnt need one because its already great but yeah) I think we had a very good ending already considering it is the first G5 geomagnetic storm since 2003. But it is not out of the question that we get at least 1 more CME impact. It is just that we should not expect too much of it. These kind of storms aren't the norm by any means. This was a storm that goes down in the history books. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Glowman Posted May 12 Share Posted May 12 4 minutes ago, MinYoongi said: When is "end of the day" End of the UTC day? And what do they say KP wise? And who is "russians" reffering to specifically? https://xras.ru/project_diary.html?page=2 (they also have some kind of monitoring page) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Archmonoth Posted May 12 Share Posted May 12 51 minutes ago, Members only said: does anyone think we reached g5 this weekend because the magnetic field is weaker? Temporarily, but the field is generated by the rotation of the Earth, so after the dip in the field passes, it returns to a certain strength very quickly. The magnetic field is not something that gets errored like a shoreline but is constantly generated like ocean waves. 13 minutes ago, Marcel de Bont said: This nothing, we are in a fast solar wind regime because of the CMEs that cleared a nice clear path but we are no longer in a magnetic cloud. Those jazzed up ions need their beauty rest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
helios Posted May 12 Share Posted May 12 I wonder where the hot solar wind temperature since this morning is coming from. Did the CMEs cleared the path for the coronal hole influence? Or another mechanism from the CME? Because the magnetic cloud from the CME usually has a low temperature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted May 12 Share Posted May 12 7 minutes ago, helios said: I wonder where the hot solar wind temperature since this morning is coming from. Did the CMEs cleared the path for the coronal hole influence? Or another mechanism from the CME? Because the magnetic cloud from the CME usually has a low temperature. It is either the X5.89 CME arrival or a HSS behind a prior CME. All we can do is wait and see if another shock arrival comes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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