dev3770 Posted May 12 Share Posted May 12 Somehow, at SWPC, they are quite confident that at least one shock is still coming and they kept the G4 watch active. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted May 12 Share Posted May 12 Flux ropes... If it is the CME #7 arrival, STEREO A should see the start of a flux rope within the next hour or two. L1 would have another 3 or 4 hours. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Merlin Posted May 12 Share Posted May 12 7 hours ago, Arctic Anomaly said: I don't think I've seen any submissions originating from the far northern/polar latitudes during this event. The vast majority of photo submissions seem to have, of course, come from our mid- and low-latitude observers. It may interest readers to know that the "white nights" of a northern summer sky obscure, if not totally eliminate, the possibility of seeing what the mid- to lower-latitude observers have been enjoying the past few nights. When the real-time forecast would call for visibility in the high/polar latitudes, in reality, we only saw faint glimpses instead of what most of you saw. But it was a joy to feel the excitement on this web site as many of you experienced (for the first time?) the beauty of these solar / geomagnetic storms. I enjoyed sharing the aurorae with you "virtually." I have been lurking here for a while and finally made an account. It's true that summer nights have started to get too bright to see everything. At least from 63° I was still able to see some quite nice shapes, but the contrast is not as good as in winter. But I was more happy to do least see something finally after nothing lining up for the previous 6 months. The camera saw the colours quite nicely, it was mainly blue/purple to the eyes but not as saturated as in the photos. With some luminosity curves you can imagine what it might have looked like if it was completely dark: This unedited one shows better how the sky wasn't fully dark, and a cool looking pattern. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Adrian Kobyłecki Posted May 12 Share Posted May 12 45 minutes ago, dev3770 said: I really hope that something nice is going to arrive since it's predicted to be a crystal clear night here in Czechia. Although no Aurora will ever beat the one from Friday/Saturday. You will see that you will be surprised. The maximum solar activity has not yet arrived, and apparently after the maximum the fun begins 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
abc123 Posted May 12 Share Posted May 12 10 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said: Flux ropes... If it is the CME #7 arrival, STEREO A should see the start of a flux rope within the next hour or two. L1 would have another 3 or 4 hours. Is it possible that it has already missed? Low energy protons in Stereo a saw steep growth at about 9:00 UTC but then dropped shortly afterwards. The upwards climb seems suggestive of an onset of CME impact. Is it possible that Stereo A was on the very edge of the CME and only got the proton increase but not the shock? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malisha Reuvekamp Posted May 12 Share Posted May 12 (edited) 1 uur geleden, Jesterface23 zei: At this point, the only two options CME #7 arrived or we are in a HSS after one of the other CMEs. All we can do is wait and see if there is another shock arrival coming. Do you mind explaining why your opinion is so different then others? By example Met Office talks about more than 1 cme still to arrive and your are saying just hopefully 1 left. Todays updates combining with the last days and all the confusion about what gets here and when. It was never as hard to give an update to my people as today. 😂 Thx for all the input by the way, helped learning a lot of extra things last years *I think I had some posting issues due to losing wifi. My post didnt finish uploading, and it never appeared, so I made a new one. Anyway, thx again for your answer 😁 Edited May 12 by Malisha Reuvekamp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Novarupta Posted May 12 Share Posted May 12 Bz going south, and hemispheric Power is increasing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hamateur 1953 Posted May 12 Share Posted May 12 That was deserving of a double post if nothing else😆 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted May 12 Share Posted May 12 1 minute ago, abc123 said: Is it possible that it has already missed? Low energy protons in Stereo a saw steep growth at about 9:00 UTC but then dropped shortly afterwards. The upwards climb seems suggestive of an onset of CME impact. Is it possible that Stereo A was on the very edge of the CME and only got the proton increase but not the shock? STEREO A had almost a perfect halo, so there isn't much of a chance it would miss. For some CMEs, the low energy proton flux can peak a few hours after the CME arrival. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheRealGenesis Posted May 12 Share Posted May 12 Things will start to move very quickly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
abc123 Posted May 12 Share Posted May 12 1 minute ago, Jesterface23 said: STEREO A had almost a perfect halo, so there isn't much of a chance it would miss. For some CMEs, the low energy proton flux can peak a few hours after the CME arrival. Wait what do you mean a perfect halo? Isn't the X5 cme a partial halo that shot westward? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted May 12 Share Posted May 12 5 minutes ago, Malisha Reuvekamp said: Do you mind explaining why your opinion is so different then others? By examplr Met Office talks about more than 1 cme still to arrive and your are saying just hopefully 1 left. Todays updates combining with the last days and all the confusion about what gets here and when. It was never as hard to give an update to my people as today. 😂 CME #6 or prior are instantly ruled out. The travel time would have been about 50 hours and maximum possible velocities would have been around 700km/s. What arrived was at around 900km/s. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malisha Reuvekamp Posted May 12 Share Posted May 12 Thank you very much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balarius Posted May 12 Share Posted May 12 Im new to all of this, but im noticing the Aurora potential signature has tripled over the last hour, after rapidly declining last night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted May 12 Share Posted May 12 1 minute ago, abc123 said: Wait what do you mean a perfect halo? Isn't the X5 cme a partial halo that shot westward? STEREO A has it's own coronagraph imagery. So it was lined up almost perfectly looking at the imagery from that satellite. From our position looking from L1, the CME launched westward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
abc123 Posted May 12 Share Posted May 12 Just now, Jesterface23 said: STEREO A has it's own coronagraph imagery. So it was lined up almost perfectly looking at the imagery from that satellite. From our position looking from L1, the CME launched westward. Ah ok I didn't really look into the imagery for stereo A. Also, bump in solar wind speed again? Rose to 955 km/s at one point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coinpeace Posted May 12 Share Posted May 12 That looks like our culprit right there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
abc123 Posted May 12 Share Posted May 12 6 minutes ago, coinpeace said: That looks like our culprit right there Highly unlikely, no shock in any other parameters is observed. It leads me to a question of why solar wind speed data are so unstable and fluctuate so much. You see that is not the only spike we see, there are many other sudden dips and spike of nearly 50 km/s in 1 minute. This usually does not happen. Is this bad data from ACE or unstable and highly variable solar environment? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted May 12 Share Posted May 12 7 minutes ago, abc123 said: It leads me to a question of why solar wind speed data are so unstable and fluctuate so much. You see that is not the only spike we see, there are many other sudden dips and spike of nearly 50 km/s in 1 minute. This usually does not happen. Is this bad data from ACE or unstable and highly variable solar environment? ACE is ooold. It is easy to look and get an estimated average at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted May 12 Share Posted May 12 Like Jester said, Ace is geriatric. I wonder what we'll do once it goes out of service this year. (i think ive read about it?) because DSCOVR had problems the last few days yet again. It showed speed as 400kms and was all over the place. stupid,expensive, can of beans. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheRealGenesis Posted May 12 Share Posted May 12 1 minute ago, MinYoongi said: Like Jester said, Ace is geriatric. I wonder what we'll do once it goes out of service this year. (i think ive read about it?) because DSCOVR had problems the last few days yet again. It showed speed as 400kms and was all over the place. stupid,expensive, can of beans. Human technology is so primitive! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
abc123 Posted May 12 Share Posted May 12 8 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said: ACE is ooold. It is easy to look and get an estimated average at least. Yeah but the data is just wild lol. Jumping from time to time, 15 min ago it showed 980 km/s and now its 820 km/s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted May 12 Share Posted May 12 Just now, abc123 said: Yeah but the data is just wild lol. Jumping from time to time, 15 min ago it showed 980 km/s and now its 820 km/s Ace is years and years past its due date. show some love for ye olde. DSCOVR has the same. Solarwind is nothing human made, it will never be perfect. Why does that make you so mad? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
helios Posted May 12 Share Posted May 12 (edited) SOHO is also old (even older than ACE) and we still have no replacement for a coronagraph in L1 (as far as I know, or do we?) Edited May 12 by helios Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maciej Dunst Posted May 12 Share Posted May 12 Any news why stereo a is down? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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