TheRealGenesis Posted May 12 Share Posted May 12 Here we go, conditions are ripe! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nathan Majors Posted May 12 Share Posted May 12 So it’s over FYI I’m calling this the Mother’s Day solar storm despite it’s may 2024 solar storm name Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coinpeace Posted May 12 Share Posted May 12 Ooo just for a moment there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Adrian Kobyłecki Posted May 12 Share Posted May 12 24 minutes ago, MinYoongi said: maybe this helps you evaluate According to Polish information sources, the shock at 9UTC was probably the X1.1 impact and the arrival of x5.8 is expected to occur within 12 hours. There are as many forecasts as there are people, but we can only be optimistic 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted May 12 Share Posted May 12 1 minute ago, Adrian Kobyłecki said: According to Polish information sources, the shock at 9UTC was probably the X1.1 impact and the arrival of x5.8 is expected to occur within 12 hours. There are as many forecasts as there are people, but we can only be optimistic what exactly are "polish information sources" ? 1 minute ago, Adrian Kobyłecki said: There are as many forecasts as there are people very well said 😁 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fishaxolotl Posted May 12 Share Posted May 12 Theres also a CME from a filament that I think is still yet to arrive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dev3770 Posted May 12 Share Posted May 12 Somehow, Bz is dropping below -12nT on STEREO... hopium? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coinpeace Posted May 12 Share Posted May 12 3664 throwing off another m class Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted May 12 Share Posted May 12 1 minute ago, dev3770 said: Somehow, Bz is dropping below -12nT on STEREO... hopium? maybe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dev3770 Posted May 12 Share Posted May 12 More hopium? (protons at STEREO) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted May 12 Share Posted May 12 5 minutes ago, dev3770 said: More hopium? (protons at STEREO) noaa just posted this so maybe. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gabriel.exe Posted May 12 Share Posted May 12 What do you think ? kp8 or more? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted May 12 Share Posted May 12 im still wondering what will arrive and if something will arrive. protons rising are a good sign i think? but if i read the data right, they expected the field to be more disturbed from the previous impact which did not pan out. (i dont know if this is 100% correct) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyman Posted May 12 Share Posted May 12 I think SWPC mentioned up to 1800km/s solar wind speed. Isn't that insanely high? I'm new to this so I'm not aware of how much wind speed matters with geomagnetic storming. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheRealGenesis Posted May 12 Share Posted May 12 Seems like it’ll peak around 4am here in Australia if it does happen. I’m pulling an all nighter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marcel de Bont Posted May 12 Author Share Posted May 12 2 minuten geleden, Tyman zei: I think SWPC mentioned up to 1800km/s solar wind speed. Isn't that insanely high? I'm new to this so I'm not aware of how much wind speed matters with geomagnetic storming. Yes but I do not see that happening. We had an impact around 9 UTC this morning but it was very weak. I doubt there would be a major impact from whatever CME that has yet to arrive to cause such speeds and/or really strong geomagnetic storming. We shall see. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dev3770 Posted May 12 Share Posted May 12 I really hope that something nice is going to arrive since it's predicted to be a crystal clear night here in Czechia. Although no Aurora will ever beat the one from Friday/Saturday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted May 12 Share Posted May 12 The shock arrival a few hours ago may have just been a HSS arrival rather than a CME. We'll find out eventually I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted May 12 Share Posted May 12 4 minutes ago, Marcel de Bont said: Yes but I do not see that happening. We had an impact around 9 UTC this morning but it was very weak. I doubt there would be a major impact from whatever CME that has yet to arrive to cause such speeds and/or really strong geomagnetic storming. We shall see. Your opinion is shared by many experts on twitter as far as i could see. Noaa also adjusted their forecast for a less strong impact (still G4+ watch, i will attach a picture). Protons are on the rise so something is coming i think, but i dont know how severe it really will be. So they seem have shifted the arrival time i guess. also, because of the 1800km/s @Tyman , i had the same question. It means 1800kms on launch with the enlil showing 1200kms on arrival. asked a forecaster from nasa to be sure. 😎 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dev3770 Posted May 12 Share Posted May 12 Friday night was a truly surreal experience. The aurora lasted the entire night, and I watched the main arc move from the north and get closer and closer, with a lot of green at the bottom that actually looked like a bright white glow to the eye. The show peaked around 0:30 CEST when suddenly a second arc appeared TO THE SOUTH of my location, and the entire sky was filled with colors, with a few pillars right overhead. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
abc123 Posted May 12 Share Posted May 12 4 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said: The shock arrival a few hours ago may have just been a HSS arrival rather than a CME. We'll find out eventually I guess. That's what I was wondering as well 16 minutes ago, Tyman said: I think SWPC mentioned up to 1800km/s solar wind speed. Isn't that insanely high? I'm new to this so I'm not aware of how much wind speed matters with geomagnetic storming. SWPC said the CME launch speed is 1800km/s not solar wind speed 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheRealGenesis Posted May 12 Share Posted May 12 It seems to me that business is about to pick up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted May 12 Share Posted May 12 The CME arrival back on 2017/09/06 had a travel time of 34 hours and velocities of a little over 800km/s. If final CME #7 arrived, the travel time would have been under 32 hours with arrival velocities around 900km/s due to arriving within such high solar with velocities. The velocities could go up further. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted May 12 Share Posted May 12 2 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said: The CME arrival back on 2017/09/06 had a travel time of 34 hours and velocities of a little over 800km/s. If final CME #7 arrived, the travel time would have been under 32 hours with arrival velocities around 900km/s due to arriving within such high solar with velocities. The velocities could go up further. So CME#7 did not arrive? you may be onto something though, Noaa Enlil showed 12UTC arrival with 1200kms but its 2h late by now. i dont know how fast it will be upon arrival then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted May 12 Share Posted May 12 2 minutes ago, MinYoongi said: So CME#7 did not arrive? you may be onto something though, Noaa Enlil showed 12UTC arrival with 1200kms but its 2h late by now. i dont know how fast it will be upon arrival then. At this point, the only two options CME #7 arrived or we are in a HSS after one of the other CMEs. All we can do is wait and see if there is another shock arrival coming. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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