May 2024 Geomagnetic Storms from AR 13664 (2)

[owenb0576]

4 minutes ago, mozy said:

Just a substorm ongoing

So nothing that’s going to last basically?

[mozy]

3 minutes ago, owenb0576 said:

So nothing that’s going to last basically?

Not with these current conditions no, solar wind is very high but the bz component is stagnant around 0 or slightly below currently.

But things could change of course.

Edited May 12 by mozy

[MinYoongi]

6 minutes ago, mozy said:

Just a substorm ongoing

yes, just substorms in areas where its dark. 

 

I think the high speeds are also pushing us to G2 right now. ^-^

Just now, mozy said:

Not with these current conditions no, solar wind is very high but the bz component is stagnant around 0 or slightly below currently.

what about later when the CME's arrive? will they need -bz even though the high speed? I have never witnessed speed above 900, so i dont know. 

[mozy]

1 minute ago, MinYoongi said:

yes, just substorms in areas where its dark. 

 

I think the high speeds are also pushing us to G2 right now. ^-^

what about later when the CME's arrive? will they need -bz even though the high speed? I have never witnessed speed above 900, so i dont know. 

Bz is the most important after all

[Isatsuki San]

It seems that STEREO A is still not giving data, I wondered when it would return to giving data

[casualseer366]

52 minutes ago, Isatsuki San said:

It seems that STEREO A is still not giving data, I wondered when it would return to giving data

Any possibility STEREO A was damaged or went offline from the high storms? 

[abc123]

hmmm solar wind speed decreasing now, odd

[Parabolic]

15 minutes ago, casualseer366 said:

Any possibility STEREO A was damaged or went offline from the high storms? 

Nope

16 minutes ago, abc123 said:

hmmm solar wind speed decreasing now, odd

Why do you say it's odd?

[Isatsuki San]

34 minutes ago, casualseer366 said:

¿Alguna posibilidad de que STEREO A haya resultado dañado o se haya desconectado debido a las fuertes tormentas? 

Nah, STEREO A, survives for a long time, you have already survived the storms of 2003 and its brother STEREO B, which is turned off because it no longer has fuel, I think you remember that STEREO B survived a CME TYPE carrington due to the magnetic field of Jupiter I don't remember the planet that helped him In addition, it is already giving data, it just took 10 more minutes haha I said it very impatient I think lol

18 minutes ago, Parabolic said:

 

Why do you say it's odd?

I think it's size because it went up and then went down, I mean it's kind of weird, but not that much.

Edited May 12 by Isatsuki San

[IlikeAuroras]

I decided to average out the ap index for May 11th

[Carrington45X]

46 minutes ago, IlikeAuroras said:

I decided to average out the ap index for May 11th

Interesting... so based on this data, geomagnetic activity will be unusually high in areas that do experience said activity. Am I interpreting that correctly?

Edited May 12 by Carrington45X

[hamateur 1953]

4 hours ago, Ingolf said:

I was too busy with being out in the field, maybe it's already asked? 

Is there already a name for this event? Like Carrington, Halloween, Bastile... 

Someone proposed the Mothers Day storms of 2024 last night btw Let’s ask the Gals how they feel. 😎

Edited May 12 by hamateur 1953
Alliteration

[Parabolic]

15 minutes ago, hamateur 1953 said:

Someone proposed the Mothers Day storms of 2024 last night btw Let’s ask the Gals how they feel. 😎

Agreed, let's let our Mothers name this one!

[StargazingHippy]

My vote is for "May-hem 2024"

[Carrington45X]

Just now, StargazingHippy said:

My vote is for "May-hem 2024"

😆 
 

[coinpeace]

4 hours ago, Philalethes said:

Someone suggested naming it "Mother's Day storm", but I don't think the community has settled into a specific name. Typically such happens fairly organically, so I guess we'll see eventually what becomes most prevalent. People should throw out some suggestions for each other to see, then we'll see what sticks, heh. I somewhat facetiously suggested calling it the "Han storm" since I saw the first recorded dated mention of sunspot observations being listed as a date corresponding to May 10 in the Book of Han, but that was more to make it clear that there isn't any universally agreed-upon name yet. We could even make May 10 the official yearly "Sunspot Day" and call it the Sunspot Day storm. The international Sun Day (like Earth Day) was just recently on May 3 too, and seems more fitting, so we could call it the "Sun Day storm". It might of course also just end up being referred to in literature and elsewhere as something boring like the "May storm of 2024", like most storms.

That was me lol if noaa's predictions are correct I still think it sticks. And @MinYoongi my best guess is that kinda like the sweeper in curling, the earlier cme's cleared out resistance in the space between earth and the sun. I believe this was thought to be partially to blame for the severity of the carrington event iirc. Like clearing a path through the forest

4 hours ago, MinYoongi said:

  

This has just been published by noaa.
I have to be honest, I'm a bit surprised about it. Because according to Solarham and the forecasters from MET and others on the CME scoreboard (I checked the notes), the CME from the X5 flare was more of a grazing shot with the bulk missing to the west. They were partially halo. I read on Twitter and asked around, and most experts were of the opinion they were not full hits and that we already had the strongest yesterday. So where is this strong warning coming from?  Is it because they are fast? Or is an impact of 1-2 CME expected tonight, which could intensify the arrival, as you can see in the photo that Kp 7.67 is predicted? I hope someone can give some input here or at least we can think about it together.
I also haven't seen a re-run of Enlil (but I'll have to check again) that was made today. I've already puzzled with someone on Twitter about whether it might be such a "strong" warning since the field is already "prepared" and could possibly slide into storm faster or they want to warn their costumers naturally enough. Sorry for this wall of text, opinions appreciated.

 

 

[cgrant26]

We're getting some aurora here in central MN, including pinks. Didn't think there'd be anything visible given the North Bz but there's definitely there.

Edited May 12 by cgrant26

[Carrington45X]

Possible activity observed here in KY.

[cgrant26]

Nice little burst of full-halo aurora. Only lasted for 5 min or so before it faded back to a single Northward band.

[Jesterface23]

Boulder, CO reached K8 within the past 15 minutes

[Zach Allen]

2 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said:

Boulder, CO reached K8 within the past 15 minutes

Just hit G3a minute ago..

[TJW1012]

Seeing some aurora from the Northwest Suburbs of Chicago, hoping the activity comes back

[cgrant26]

Had another flyover from the ISS too. (center of pic)

 

Edited May 12 by cgrant26

[coinpeace]

48 minutes ago, cgrant26 said:

Had another flyover from the ISS too. (center of pic)

 

The most prolific photobombers on ea... of the human species this weekend!

[Arctic Anomaly]

I don't think I've seen any submissions originating from the far northern/polar latitudes during this event.  The vast majority of photo submissions seem to have, of course, come from our mid- and low-latitude observers.  

It may interest readers to know that the "white nights" of a northern summer sky obscure, if not totally eliminate, the possibility of seeing what the mid- to lower-latitude observers have been enjoying the past few nights.  When the real-time forecast would call for visibility in the high/polar latitudes, in reality, we only saw faint glimpses instead of what most of you saw.

But it was a joy to feel the excitement on this web site as many of you experienced (for the first time?) the beauty of these solar / geomagnetic storms.    I enjoyed sharing the aurorae with you "virtually."