MinYoongi Posted May 12 Share Posted May 12 1 minute ago, Isatsuki San said: For now EPAM is like this, yes I am still somewhat anxious waiting for STEREO A to return Why anxiously? 3 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said: ACE's EPAMp has taken a turn in recent hours. It should take us up to the final(for now) arrival. How high/steep would it have to rise to show impact imminent? To me it looks very slowly climbing, rather declining. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted May 12 Share Posted May 12 Just now, abc123 said: hmmm, can you explain a bit why you thought 6 and 7th have already arrived when no actual shock in any parameters are observed? CMEs #5 and #6 either already arrived about 6 hours ago, or won't be able to arrive due the the current solar wind velocities. It it all waiting on CME #7 now to arrive alone, or pick up any remains from CME #5 and #6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isatsuki San Posted May 12 Share Posted May 12 Just now, MinYoongi said: ¿Por qué con ansiedad? ¿Qué tan alto/empinado tendría que subir para mostrar que el impacto es inminente? A mí me parece un ascenso muy lento, más bien un descenso. No, it's not anxiety, it's better said emotion, I think it was misinterpreted due to the translation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted May 12 Share Posted May 12 1 minute ago, MinYoongi said: How high/steep would it have to rise to show impact imminent? To me it looks very slowly climbing, rather declining. The red 47-68 keV line should easily reach the mid to upper 6 digit mark, if not 7 digits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Glowman Posted May 12 Share Posted May 12 When had arrived fluxes of 5-6 of May? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isatsuki San Posted May 12 Share Posted May 12 1 minute ago, Jesterface23 said: Las CME #5 y #6 ya llegaron hace aproximadamente 6 horas o no podrán llegar debido a las velocidades actuales del viento solar. Ahora todo está esperando que CME #7 llegue solo o recoja los restos de CME #5 y #6. I have a theory, what if the cme 6 and 5 hit before and that's why the wind speeds are like that but it had no effect on the magnetic field because it was recovered from 4 maybe it makes sense also in the magnotometers it will look like If there was an impact at 20 UTC, I don't know what my crazy theory is, or only CME 7 is grabbing it as a prize. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted May 12 Share Posted May 12 1 minute ago, Jesterface23 said: The red 47-68 keV line should easily reach the mid to upper 6 digit mark, if not 7 digits. Thank you, i will keep that in mind. To your comment with CME#7. Can the ~19UT shock be that one? I saw some Experts discuss that on Twitter. I will link it for you. There is also this graphic from the Austrian Space Weather office, but im so unsure about the Arrival Speeds, because currently we are in much faster speeds and Enlil shows something Else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slongtrain31 Posted May 12 Share Posted May 12 I think for the CME there is the fast component, which arrived in about 20 hours from the detection here. https://www.sidc.be/cactus/out/CME0046/CME.html. Time of liftoff was 02:36 on 5/11. So that would put the arrival somewhere around 2 hours ago. But the majority of the CME is in the slow component, which has an estimated speed of around 800 km/s, with skews slower. 800 km/s would put us in the ballpark of 50 hours, so sometime around 04:30 UTC tomorrow. I think this is not over. especially if the sun erupts again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted May 12 Share Posted May 12 Speed is rising and bz is - , is this another shock maybe? or would that be visible more clearly? I sadly dont know how to tell by temperature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted May 12 Share Posted May 12 With the velocities now reaching near 1000km/s, CME #5 (last CME on the 9th) and CME #6 (first CME on the 10th) likely arrived together at L1 at around /11 18:00Z. The arrivals are less dense, so it is somewhat not a surprise the IMF strength is fairly low. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isatsuki San Posted May 12 Share Posted May 12 2 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said: Con velocidades que ahora alcanzan cerca de 1000 km/s, la CME #5 (última CME el día 9) y la CME #6 (primera CME el día 10) probablemente llegaron juntas a L1 alrededor de las 11:00 hora UTC. Las llegadas son menos densas, por lo que no sorprende que la fortaleza del FMI sea bastante baja. Here is my stupid question, it seems that the temperature drops when the wind increases. I don't know if it's an error or something, but could it be the flow rope? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
abc123 Posted May 12 Share Posted May 12 17 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said: CMEs #5 and #6 either already arrived about 6 hours ago, or won't be able to arrive due the the current solar wind velocities. It it all waiting on CME #7 now to arrive alone, or pick up any remains from CME #5 and #6. what do you mean by won't be able to arrive? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted May 12 Share Posted May 12 3 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said: With the velocities now reaching near 1000km/s, CME #5 (last CME on the 9th) and CME #6 (first CME on the 10th) likely arrived together at L1 at around /11 18:00Z. The arrivals are less dense, so it is somewhat not a surprise the IMF strength is fairly low. thank you jester. that was basically what i thought couldve happened. So the next arrivals will be Cme#7 meaning the X5 one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
abc123 Posted May 12 Share Posted May 12 To make sense of the G5 prediction, is it cuz like solar wind speeds are likely to be very high, and hence we probably only need -10 to -20 Bz to get a strong geomagnetic storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bridgid Burkert Posted May 12 Share Posted May 12 Hi everyone! New here, but have been a space weather enthusiast for the last few years. Still have a lot to learn and am excited to discover this community. Regarding this weekend’s geomagnetic activity, I’ve been reviewing the data from the 5.89/5.7 flare, and it does appear to me there is a full halo associated with this event. Would love to hear your opinions. It’s CME 46 on the Space Weather Live CME page. The LASCO footage only appears to begin at 2:00, and the event lasted 11 hours which may make it harder to hone in on the halo as 11 hours is condensed to a 2 second clip. Also looking at the scatter plot, it appears the velocity distribution could support more activity in the very near future. Think this may be why the forecast for May 12 was recently updated to include probability of its arrival. Hoping this is the case because I missed last nights viewing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted May 12 Share Posted May 12 8 minutes ago, abc123 said: To make sense of the G5 prediction, is it cuz like solar wind speeds are likely to be very high, and hence we probably only need -10 to -20 Bz to get a strong geomagnetic storm? I guess it has to do with the high speeds and maybe noaa accounting for a probably preconditioned field Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted May 12 Share Posted May 12 9 minutes ago, Isatsuki San said: Here is my stupid question, it seems that the temperature drops when the wind increases. I don't know if it's an error or something, but could it be the flow rope? We are in the sheath of the CME, so that likely has something to do with it. Things can change on a dime. 9 minutes ago, abc123 said: what do you mean by won't be able to arrive? The faster solar wind of the other CMEs pretty much degrade them as they are going slower then what is around them. 9 minutes ago, MinYoongi said: thank you jester. that was basically what i thought couldve happened. So the next arrivals will be Cme#7 meaning the X5 one? Yep .............................. And I think I'll go outside to try and mess around with my telescope again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted May 12 Share Posted May 12 11 minutes ago, Isatsuki San said: Here is my stupid question, it seems that the temperature drops when the wind increases. I don't know if it's an error or something, but could it be the flow rope? I sadly dont know. @arjemma is very knowledgeable especially with Temps. I never got them. Just now, Jesterface23 said: Yep .............................. And I think I'll go outside to try and mess around with my telescope again. Good luck, have much fun. @Jesterface23 Noaa just came around the corner. Tagging you because it might interest you Maybe you know which CMES they mean exactly. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
owenb0576 Posted May 12 Share Posted May 12 Are the lights going to be visible New Hampshire Maine? It’s starting to look good the 30 minute forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nicho3435 Posted May 12 Share Posted May 12 Hi everyone! I'm not necessarily new here but this is my first experience looking at the geomagnetic storms. I normally look at the sunspot regions here to see when is a good time to use my telescope with a filter. I was particularly wondering where the best place to learn what all the graphs and charts on the homepage mean. I see them often but without knowing what they actually mean. I know I can hover over the (i) to get information about the specific charts, but a lot of that is still going over my head. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted May 12 Share Posted May 12 15 minutes ago, owenb0576 said: Are the lights going to be visible New Hampshire Maine? It’s starting to look good the 30 minute forecast We cant say yet. this thread and the app will let you know Promise! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
owenb0576 Posted May 12 Share Posted May 12 Just now, MinYoongi said: We cant say yet. this thread and the app will let you know Promise! I also saw they updated the 3 day forecast and it’s G4 at 03UTC couple hours away so we will see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zach Allen Posted May 12 Share Posted May 12 There go the magnometers jumping from -100 to now -900. Incoming? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mozy Posted May 12 Share Posted May 12 1 minute ago, Zach Allen said: There go the magnometers jumping from -100 to now -900. Incoming? Just a substorm ongoing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
abc123 Posted May 12 Share Posted May 12 33 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said: The faster solar wind of the other CMEs pretty much degrade them as they are going slower then what is around them. Ok yeah this seems a plausible explanation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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