MinYoongi Posted May 11 Share Posted May 11 Just now, Isatsuki San said: We would also realize the cme with stereo A since the cme X 5.89 is in the west direction where our beloved STEREO A is. Thats good info, thank you Isatsuki! The thing is, 1) Stereo is in its outage right now. Hope it comes back around 1:30 like yesterday, but i dont know if the outages are periodic. 2.) since the CME bulk is to the west, what arrives at Stereo might not resemble what we get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isatsuki San Posted May 11 Share Posted May 11 8 minutes ago, MinYoongi said: ¡Esa es buena información, gracias Isatsuki! La cuestión es que 1) el estéreo está apagado en este momento. Espero que vuelva alrededor de la 1:30 como ayer, pero no sé si los cortes son periódicos. 2.) dado que la mayor parte de la CME está hacia el oeste, lo que llegue a Stereo podría no parecerse a lo que obtenemos. yes I also hope he comes back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
abc123 Posted May 11 Share Posted May 11 28 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said: I think CME #7 is the only one that can arrive now. The velocities look way to high for any CMEs before it to arrive, if they didn't arrive already. Could it possibly be due to other factors? I don't really see a shock in IMF or even solar wind speeds. For wind speed, it's gradual increase. A lack of shock in Bt looks suspicious to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Karsten Redig Posted May 11 Share Posted May 11 Missed the yesterday ones sadly (damn clouds rolling in right before it) hoped i would see it today. Learned a bit today cause im totally new in this and im happy that i feed my brain. But still having hope or believe in wonders or that im not learned anything and learning wrong haha. Spend a great day reading the news and learning thats enough. The last thing i found was the language button would had make things so much easyier xD 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tniickck Posted May 11 Share Posted May 11 yall see enlil? 1200 km/s prognose @Jesterface23 @Philalethes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted May 12 Share Posted May 12 I think @Jesterface23 is right. Of course i dont know what happened to Cme#7, but according to enlil its supposed to arrive around 2UTC with ~800 KM/s Since we're at 900+ already, could that mean it already arrived yesterday? Would that make the X5. CME even faster than 1200kms? 4 minutes ago, tniickck said: yall see enlil? 1200 km/s prognose @Jesterface23 @Philalethes Yep! but i dont know how probable that is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
abc123 Posted May 12 Share Posted May 12 3 minutes ago, MinYoongi said: I think @Jesterface23 is right. Of course i dont know what happened to Cme#7, but according to enlil its supposed to arrive around 2UTC with ~800 KM/s Since we're at 900+ already, could that mean it already arrived yesterday? Would that make the X5. CME even faster than 1200kms? Yep! but i dont know how probable that is. So far the increase in wind speeds have been more gradual though, which is not a sign of impact by CME Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrEscher Posted May 12 Share Posted May 12 NOAA moved it's G5 prediction up to 05/11, and changed tomorrow to G3. https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted May 12 Share Posted May 12 2 minutes ago, MrEscher said: NOAA moved it's G5 prediction up to 05/11, and changed tomorrow to G3. https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ 05/11 ? They did not move it again, i think you may be misunderstanding something somewhere. it is still g5 for tomorrow, G3 for monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhereingtonEvent Posted May 12 Share Posted May 12 (edited) Hello everybody. I hope you are all doing well. I have been away from the internet for a while and need to catch up. Tell me where I am wrong…… cme 1-3 or 4 is what I watched last night with my family because that came as a cannibal event… the last of the cme comes at midday utc and is also a cannibal event the next cme is expected to be a g5 and most people don’t know why…… also I am curious if you all expect a stronger event from the next round or if yesterday was likely stronger. Edited May 12 by WhereingtonEvent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Philalethes Posted May 12 Share Posted May 12 5 minutes ago, tniickck said: yall see enlil? 1200 km/s prognose @Jesterface23 @Philalethes Is that meant to represent the CME from the X5.9 yesterday night (11T01:30Z)? If so it seems like an odd direction judging by where it seems to mostly be going in the LASCO imagery, but maybe they are modeling just the halo component of it somehow, not really sure exactly how they make those models. Would be interesting, but looks like those peak velocities are modeled when the density drops, so probably not going to lead to anything like the activity we saw yesterday (prove me wrong, sky gods!). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrEscher Posted May 12 Share Posted May 12 (edited) 5 minutes ago, MinYoongi said: 05/11 ? They did not move it again, i think you may be misunderstanding something somewhere. it is still g5 for tomorrow, G3 for monday. I wish that I screenshot it, the dates were there, so the NOAA just made a mistake I think, and changed it back. Whoops. Sorry. Edited May 12 by MrEscher Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isatsuki San Posted May 12 Share Posted May 12 1 minute ago, Philalethes said: ¿Se supone que eso representa la CME del X5.9 ayer por la noche (11T01:30Z)? Si es así, parece una dirección extraña a juzgar por dónde parece ir principalmente en las imágenes de LASCO , pero tal vez estén modelando solo el componente de halo de alguna manera, sin estar realmente seguros exactamente de cómo hacen esos modelos. Sería interesante, pero parece que esas velocidades máximas se modelan cuando la densidad cae, por lo que probablemente no conducirá a nada parecido a la actividad que vimos ayer (¡demuestren que estoy equivocado, dioses del cielo!). Now that I think about it, doesn't it seem quick if the CME arrives in 33 hours as the NOAA predicts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
owenb0576 Posted May 12 Share Posted May 12 Doesn’t look promising tonight so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted May 12 Share Posted May 12 3 minutes ago, Philalethes said: Is that meant to represent the CME from the X5.9 yesterday night (11T01:30Z)? If so it seems like an odd direction judging by where it seems to mostly be going in the LASCO imagery, but maybe they are modeling just the halo component of it somehow, not really sure exactly how they make those models. Would be interesting, but looks like those peak velocities are modeled when the density drops, so probably not going to lead to anything like the activity we saw yesterday (prove me wrong, sky gods!). Yeah its meant to represent that. I talked to a forecaster that modelled the CME for nasa today multiple times. she said its tricky to model because it was shaped like an ear, lol. Can i show you something out of the MET Space weather forecast? Maybe we can make sense of it together and get some answers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slongtrain31 Posted May 12 Share Posted May 12 (edited) 5 minutes ago, Isatsuki San said: Now that I think about it, doesn't it seem quick if the CME arrives in 33 hours as the NOAA predicts? If the speed of the CME, which is charted by https://www.sidc.be/cactus/out/latestCMEs.html https://www.sidc.be/cactus/out/CME0046/CME.html The range of speed is 500-2000 km/s. at that rate, we expect 20-80 hours as a range for when the mass comes in. How much and how fast is another story since the angle of mass is so small that hits earth. Edited May 12 by slongtrain31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
owenb0576 Posted May 12 Share Posted May 12 No longer in G3. 😔 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tobin Posted May 12 Share Posted May 12 5 minutes ago, MrEscher said: I wish that I screenshot it, the dates were there, so the NOAA just made a mistake I think, and changed it back. Whoops. Sorry. We just ticked over to 5/12 00:00 UTC so it probably had to do with the date change, nothing to worry about. So I am in Japan, but it seems like we generally don't get anything as far as aurora visibility goes. I know the recent ones were mostly because the events happened during daylight hours, but is there any other reason we would see less impact over here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted May 12 Share Posted May 12 I keep trying to make sense of this enlil, but it wont work. The tweet i linked earlier could be helpful. I wonder how fast the arrival will be. Would Epam rise before? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mozy Posted May 12 Share Posted May 12 950km/s solar wind speed and we're hovering around 0 bz, boring😑 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted May 12 Share Posted May 12 ACE's EPAMp has taken a turn in recent hours. It should take us up to the final(for now) arrival. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
owenb0576 Posted May 12 Share Posted May 12 Is it possible for the #7 cme to hit already today when hpi pushed up to 87 then dropped? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
abc123 Posted May 12 Share Posted May 12 1 minute ago, Jesterface23 said: ACE's EPAMp has taken a turn in recent hours. It should take us up to the final(for now) arrival. hmmm, can you explain a bit why you thought 6 and 7th have already arrived when no actual shock in any parameters are observed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isatsuki San Posted May 12 Share Posted May 12 2 minutes ago, MinYoongi said: Sigo intentando encontrarle sentido a esto enlil, pero no funciona. El tweet que vinculé antes podría ser útil. Me pregunto qué tan rápido será la llegada. ¿Epam se levantaría antes? For now EPAM is like this, yes I am still somewhat anxious waiting for STEREO A to return Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
abc123 Posted May 12 Share Posted May 12 1 minute ago, owenb0576 said: Is it possible for the #7 cme to hit already today when hpi pushed up to 87 then dropped? Changes in HPI have no relation to arrival of CME. HPI is based on auroral activity (or vice versa), and it rises when Bz is more negative. It dropped because Bz has been close to 0 now/ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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