Popular Post The Wild Images Posted May 13 Popular Post Share Posted May 13 Hello everyone. As both an astrophysicist and a photographer, your site is a great resource and my go to for predictions. Keep up the great work! Here is a photo I captured from the Driftless Area of Wisconsin on Friday night. 12 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Misaka Posted May 13 Share Posted May 13 One record has this event definitely. It is the most photographed geomagnetic storm to this day thanks to smartphones. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Warfel Posted May 13 Share Posted May 13 41 minutes ago, The Wild Images said: Hello everyone. As both an astrophysicist and a photographer, your site is a great resource and my go to for predictions. Keep up the great work! Here is a photo I captured from the Driftless Area of Wisconsin on Friday night. Beautiful image! Pleased to meet you, I live in Madison and was also chasing in the Driftless Friday night. I just uploaded some of my faves from my chase to the gallery: 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wild Images Posted May 13 Share Posted May 13 3 hours ago, Sam Warfel said: Beautiful image! Pleased to meet you, I live in Madison and was also chasing in the Driftless Friday night. I just uploaded some of my faves from my chase to the gallery: Wow, you took some great ones! That was one very special night. And Wisconsin is an amazing state to be in when the big aurora storms occur. Perfect location of being north but not too far north. And the clouds/sunsets here are absolutely phenomenal. My image was captured a few miles west of the village of Arena. I wanted to frame it with the cloud shelf, and ended up there for awhile. I was out until after 3 AM that night. Small world, I am in Middleton along the Pheasant Branch Conservancy now, next door to Madison. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Warfel Posted May 13 Share Posted May 13 1 hour ago, The Wild Images said: Wow, you took some great ones! That was one very special night. And Wisconsin is an amazing state to be in when the big aurora storms occur. Perfect location of being north but not too far north. And the clouds/sunsets here are absolutely phenomenal. My image was captured a few miles west of the village of Arena. I wanted to frame it with the cloud shelf, and ended up there for awhile. I was out until after 3 AM that night. Small world, I am in Middleton along the Pheasant Branch Conservancy now, next door to Madison. The Driftless is beautiful even without a G5 storm as well! I love it for fall color especially. Pretty area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Misaka Posted May 13 Share Posted May 13 According to Enlil, the M6.6 will unfortunately miss us completely and only just hit STEREO A slightly. But something else seems to be hitting us (possibly from the M2.42 Flare from 12.05? Haven't figured it out yet) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marcel de Bont Posted May 13 Author Share Posted May 13 23 minuten geleden, Misaka zei: According to Enlil, the M6.6 will unfortunately miss us completely and only just hit STEREO A slightly. But something else seems to be hitting us (possibly from the M2.42 Flare from 12.05? Haven't figured it out yet) I am normally very critical when it comes to whether a CME is going to impact us or not but go watch LASCO and tell me what you see. Yes the M6.6 took place close to the west limb but this is a clear halo. It has to be from the M6 and should give us a glancing blow. https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/news/view/540/20240513-m6-6-solar-flare-with-earth-directed-cme.html I guess the CME modelled that is heading more head on towards us is this one? A filament eruption maybe. Not a flare? I am going to bed can't be bothered to check SDO. When I wake up I am sure one of you broke the code on this one, haha. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted May 13 Share Posted May 13 I do see the halo too but i don’t know if we will see more than a shock arrival. I base my opinion on some experts who made statements and gave their opinion on twitter, since im very bad at interpreting this stuff and still lack the experience. Either way it’s interesting and we have yet another waiting game! ☺️ On a side note, this CME was not modeled by nasa somehow (and they usually model everything) and I see nothing on the CME scoreboard either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted May 13 Share Posted May 13 21 minutes ago, Marcel de Bont said: I guess the CME modelled that is heading more head on towards us is this one? A filament eruption maybe. Not a flare? I am going to bed can't be bothered to check SDO. When I wake up I am sure one of you broke the code on this one, haha. There may have been a small filament eruption around the east-central disk, but I have no idea what they actually modeled. 2 of the best CMEs that can be made out in coronagraph imagery looks to be an eruption over the southeast limb and a filament eruption slightly over the southwest limb. I'm sticking somewhat close though on the M6.6 flare CME, primarily with an arrival mid-day on the 15th. Though that is probably the earliest possible arrival. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Sam Warfel Posted May 13 Popular Post Share Posted May 13 Here's my timelapse from Friday night's incredible show! This is my longest timelapse yet, by far. Enjoy! https://youtu.be/X-aO1N4FNfw 7 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KW2P Posted May 14 Share Posted May 14 2 hours ago, Sam Warfel said: Here's my timelapse from Friday night's incredible show! This is my longest timelapse yet, by far. Enjoy! https://youtu.be/X-aO1N4FNfw Fabulous, wonderful, excellent. It takes a lot of work to pull that off. Nice job! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SuperSargassoSea Posted May 14 Share Posted May 14 2 hours ago, Sam Warfel said: Here's my timelapse from Friday night's incredible show! This is my longest timelapse yet, by far. Enjoy! https://youtu.be/X-aO1N4FNfw that's absolutely incredible! the photos you got are stunning too! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Warfel Posted May 14 Share Posted May 14 Thank you! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tigerpaw0723 Posted May 14 Share Posted May 14 do we know anything about the CME propably giving us glancing blow later today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maciej Dunst Posted May 14 Share Posted May 14 Does anyone have an idea what did actually SWPC modeled in the latest ENLIL? I checked SDO imagery and I don't see any significant eruption near the disk center Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sypior213 Posted May 14 Share Posted May 14 16 minutes ago, Maciej Dunst said: Does anyone have an idea what did actually SWPC modeled in the latest ENLIL? I checked SDO imagery and I don't see any significant eruption near the disk center It will probably be a glancing blow from yesterday's M 6.66 flare associated with partial halo cme. I don't know if we will see aurora but there is some chance of that happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maciej Dunst Posted May 14 Share Posted May 14 Just now, sypior213 said: It will probably be a glancing blow from yesterday's M 6.66 flare associated with partial halo cme. I don't know if we will see aurora but there is some chance of that happening. No, it's not that. They predict some direct hit from another CME. But I don't see any source in SDO or even any halo on C3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted May 14 Share Posted May 14 1 minute ago, Maciej Dunst said: No, it's not that. They predict some direct hit from another CME. But I don't see any source in SDO or even any halo on C3 look at their forecast discussion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maciej Dunst Posted May 14 Share Posted May 14 1 hour ago, MinYoongi said: look at their forecast discussion Where? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cgrant26 Posted May 14 Share Posted May 14 (edited) 2 hours ago, Maciej Dunst said: No, it's not that. They predict some direct hit from another CME. But I don't see any source in SDO or even any halo on C3 There was a halo and it looked like two simultaneous events during the M6.6 flare. The other event was a filament snap from near 3673 on the Eastern side. You can see it pretty clearly on IAI 131. Watch the SDO movie from the 12th to 13th. https://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/data/aiahmi/ If ENLIL is accurate, the arrival of that CME may coincide with an HSS from a CH. EDIT: Also called out in the forecast discussion. 😎 1 hour ago, Maciej Dunst said: Where? https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion Edited May 14 by cgrant26 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sypior213 Posted May 14 Share Posted May 14 seems like the CME arrived, but Bt didnt react, any ideas why? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marcel de Bont Posted May 14 Author Share Posted May 14 1 minuut geleden, sypior213 zei: seems like the CME arrived, but Bt didnt react, any ideas why? No I do not think so. The way the density behaved it seems more like the solar wind data is a bit flakey. If this was the CME, the Bt / Bz would react one way or another. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sypior213 Posted May 14 Share Posted May 14 Do you think that this could be CHSS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted May 15 Share Posted May 15 7 hours ago, sypior213 said: seems like the CME arrived, but Bt didnt react, any ideas why? Now I understand it just happening to come across a data page I've had running through the day. That was not a CME or change in the solar wind at all. ACE's data went down so they had to switch to DSCOVR's data. The IMF is similar between the two satellites. The velocities are somewhat similar when they are both working. The other parameters between the satellites can be quite a bit different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B9FX Posted May 15 Share Posted May 15 5 hours ago, Jesterface23 said: Now I understand it just happening to come across a data page I've had running through the day. That was not a CME or change in the solar wind at all. ACE's data went down so they had to switch to DSCOVR's data. The IMF is similar between the two satellites. The velocities are somewhat similar when they are both working. The other parameters between the satellites can be quite a bit different. Just wanted to chime in and say this is correct! though my oh my if anyone else has been following since last week I have been taking lots of screen shots of some of the most interesting data and putting it together with the coronagraphs,suvi,lasco I saved some of the enils too and combining them into variable speed gifs with the appropriate data. Depends on what goes on in the next few days I will put it up and post a link. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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