May 2024 Geomagnetic Storms from AR 13664 (2)

[Marcel de Bont]

12 minuten geleden, katie zei:

I have been following space weather website for couple years and noticed your predictions were always more accurate than the 3- day forecasts. Thanks to your announcement on Thursday, I drove up and stayed at north and saw the amazing northern lights.

Just registered to say “Thank you" to all of you ! Happy weekend and happy mother's day to all the moms.

I will continue to follow you guys, hug hug.

Katie.

Thanks Katie! Great to hear and welcome to the forums!

[owenb0576]

Just now, StargazingHippy said:

We don't want it to stay south for a long time either as eventually it runs out of gas. The dives up and down help to excite the particles and make them more active. It only needs to be south for a short time ahead but once it does the harder south the better. Myself I'm in Canada so I'm hoping it either goes north for a few hours or keeps flipping before turning south tonight.

I got lucky. I’m from Northern NJ and drove up 10-11 hours may 10 to Lac Saint-Jean in Alma, Quebec and saw them. That’s the only problem with me is I usually go up to upstate NY Lake Ontario which is 3 and a half hours. I dont get a big heads up with the 30 min forecast. 

[cgrant26]

15 minutes ago, owenb0576 said:

I keep hearing this what is a flux rope?

The flux rope is the area highlighted in blue.

Edit: Philalethe's answer below is must more informative.

Edited May 12 by cgrant26

[StargazingHippy]

4 minutes ago, owenb0576 said:

I got lucky. I’m from Northern NJ and drove up 10-11 hours may 10 to Lac Saint-Jean in Alma, Quebec and saw them. That’s the only problem with me is I usually go up to upstate NY Lake Ontario which is 3 and a half hours. I dont get a big heads up with the 30 min forecast. 

Unfortunately that's just the way it works. Solar weather is a whole lot of educated guesses and hope, the BZ can flip in minutes even with whatever app is giving you the 30min heads up. A few weeks back we actually got a pretty decent hit and everyone had said it would miss, I also spend a lot of nights waiting for something that never arrives. Fun fun fun 😁 

Edited May 12 by StargazingHippy

[Philalethes]

2 minutes ago, owenb0576 said:

I keep hearing this what is a flux rope?

It's the innermost part of a CME, the loops you see lift off during eruptive Solar flares. In the context of a CME it's also known as a magnetic cloud (MC). It looks roughly like this:

That innermost part, the green and blue waves within the light blue area, is the magnetic cloud (flux rope). In it the magnetic field will typically have a particular kind of twisted structure, with a smooth transition between a more circular field on the outside and more unidirectional field in the deepest part of it. It looks roughly like this:

This can be wound in either direction, and can hit us any which way, yielding what's broadly categorized into 8 different types, 4 directions they can hit times 2 for each direction they can be wound (clockwise or counterclockwise); something like this:

[Glowman]

2 questions appeared

1) what happening when we will transfer through edge of magnetic/electron rope again or if the rope collapses?

2) if we in the rope so we have good defense from far Supernova flair(in example) reached the Earth?

Edited May 12 by Glowman

[MinYoongi]

is this a ch hss? it does not look like an arrival.. 

[owenb0576]

2 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

is this a ch hss? it does not look like an arrival.. 

should I worry about it? The 30 min forecast starting to look awesome 

[Isatsuki San]

2 minutes ago, owenb0576 said:

¿Debería preocuparme por eso? El pronóstico de 30 minutos empieza a parecer impresionante. 

To be honest, with the conditions shown now, there is nothing to worry about so calm down

[chronical]

23 minutes ago, Philalethes said:

It's the innermost part of a CME, the loops you see lift off during eruptive Solar flares. In the context of a CME it's also known as a magnetic cloud (MC). It looks roughly like this:

That innermost part, the green and blue waves within the light blue area, is the magnetic cloud (flux rope). In it the magnetic field will typically have a particular kind of twisted structure, with a smooth transition between a more circular field on the outside and more unidirectional field in the deepest part of it. It looks roughly like this:

This can be wound in either direction, and can hit us any which way, yielding what's broadly categorized into 8 different types, 4 directions they can hit times 2 for each direction they can be wound (clockwise or counterclockwise); something like this:

Do you happen to know why a certain flux rope is negative or positive?

[Balarius]

10 point GW drop on Aurora Forecast in five minutes. from 128 > 118.   Hope its a fluctuation and not a trend, rude. 

2 minutes ago, Balarius said:

10 point GW drop on Aurora Forecast in five minutes. from 128 > 118.   Hope its a fluctuation and not a trend, rude. 

Down to 98 GW.  Hope it bounces back

[Philalethes]

4 minutes ago, chronical said:

Do you happen to know why a certain flux rope is negative or positive?

Whether it results in a negative Bz depends on what configuration of those 8 it is. Any configuration with an "S" is going to have a southwards component at some point; those starting or ending with "S" will be where the southwards field is as we enter or exit the rope (the red helices), while those having an "S" in the middle will be when the innermost part of the rope itself is pointing south (the inner black arrows). The arrows are the direction of the field, and a negative Bz will be when those arrows point downward relative to the geomagnetic field as the flux rope passes through us.

It's of course complicated by the fact that we don't always pass directly through the center of the rope, that we sometimes hit more towards the legs of the rope, and that the rope itself sometimes has become messed up for one reason or other, so it's definitely not always simple to forecast the direction of the field.

[chronical]

31 minutes ago, Philalethes said:

Whether it results in a negative Bz depends on what configuration of those 8 it is. Any configuration with an "S" is going to have a southwards component at some point; those starting or ending with "S" will be where the southwards field is as we enter or exit the rope (the red helices), while those having an "S" in the middle will be when the innermost part of the rope itself is pointing south (the inner black arrows). The arrows are the direction of the field, and a negative Bz will be when those arrows point downward relative to the geomagnetic field as the flux rope passes through us.

It's of course complicated by the fact that we don't always pass directly through the center of the rope, that we sometimes hit more towards the legs of the rope, and that the rope itself sometimes has become messed up for one reason or other, so it's definitely not always simple to forecast the direction of the field.

Thank you, that just clarified everything concerning flux ropes!

[Jesterface23]

We have the freezing temperatures. I'm expecting the density to drop, have a possible HSS kick in, and the ACE EPAMp to drop at some point in the coming hours.

[abc123]

9 hours ago, Jesterface23 said:

STEREO A had almost a perfect halo, so there isn't much of a chance it would miss. For some CMEs, the low energy proton flux can peak a few hours after the CME arrival.

So does it mean you think it will be a late arrival but it definitely will hit Stereo A? 

[Jesterface23]

3 minutes ago, abc123 said:

So does it mean you think it will be a late arrival but it definitely will hit Stereo A? 

The CME #7 from the X5.89 flare likely already arrived at L1 around 09:00Z on the 12th, and 07:30Z for STEREO A.

[coinpeace]

3 hours ago, Philalethes said:

It's the innermost part of a CME, the loops you see lift off during eruptive Solar flares. In the context of a CME it's also known as a magnetic cloud (MC). It looks roughly like this:

That innermost part, the green and blue waves within the light blue area, is the magnetic cloud (flux rope). In it the magnetic field will typically have a particular kind of twisted structure, with a smooth transition between a more circular field on the outside and more unidirectional field in the deepest part of it. It looks roughly like this:

This can be wound in either direction, and can hit us any which way, yielding what's broadly categorized into 8 different types, 4 directions they can hit times 2 for each direction they can be wound (clockwise or counterclockwise); something like this:

This post looks like a textbook. It's quite a privilege sharing a community with those with a great willingness to teach as much as you guys do, thank you (et al)

 

Seriously we all appreciate it

Edited May 13 by coinpeace

[abc123]

14 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said:

The CME #7 from the X5.89 flare likely already arrived at L1 around 09:00Z on the 12th, and 07:30Z for STEREO A.

Hmmm that was unusually weak though.. If it arrived that early, why is the shock so little even for Stereo A, given that you think it should be a direct hit for them?

[Jesterface23]

17 minutes ago, abc123 said:

Hmmm that was unusually weak though.. If it arrived that early, why is the shock so little even for Stereo A, given that you think it should be a direct hit for them?

STEREO A actually did get a decent IMF shock arrival at ~22nT. We probably only got a IMF 12nT shock out of it because we were slightly further off to the side and by chance of timing of all of the events, the arrival at L1 had a very low density.

.........

Well, ACE's EPAMp seems to be doing something

..........

And likely bad data

[Isatsuki San]

                  Epam went up and right now it goes down, does it mean an impact or is it just an error?
Why don't I see any impact on stereo?

[hamateur 1953]

7 hours ago, coinpeace said:

This post looks like a textbook. It's quite a privilege sharing a community with those with a great willingness to teach as much as you guys do, thank you (et al)

 

Seriously we all appreciate it

Amen! 

Hey @Philalethes  I’m sending your descriptive post to another buddy because neither of us could figure out WHAT it was we were actually seeing. 
Him and his wife in 1999 Me alone at snoqualamie pass in 2024.  Excellent dude!  Mike 

[Philalethes]

1 hour ago, hamateur 1953 said:

Amen! 

Hey @Philalethes  I’m sending your descriptive post to another buddy because neither of us could figure out WHAT it was we were actually seeing. 
Him and his wife in 1999 Me alone at snoqualamie pass in 2024.  Excellent dude!  Mike 

Well, I assume you know, but for clarity the flux rope itself isn't exactly what you see in the sky as the waving bands of the aurora, in case someone perhaps thought that; but maybe you were talking about what the field typically looks like in the Solar wind data, where an idealized flux rope (ESW in this case) would look something like this if you hit it head-on and passed right through the center of it:

[Jesterface23]

5 hours ago, Isatsuki San said:

                  Epam went up and right now it goes down, does it mean an impact or is it just an error?
Why don't I see any impact on stereo?

Those are errors. The last CME arrived over 24 hours ago at this point and the solar wind velocities are on the decline.

.................

I say last CME and now I look at the coronagraph imagery this morning. Now to see if there is any chance of an L1 arrival.

Edited May 13 by Jesterface23

[Jesterface23]

The CME this is another pretty fast one. Though with the CME right near the the limb, our only chance is a glancing blow from it.

Right now this is just after preliminary calculations, I'd estimate a possible arrival in the later morning to end of day on the 15th UTC. Only up to G1 should be expected, if it does arrive.

[hamateur 1953]

4 hours ago, Philalethes said:

Well, I assume you know, but for clarity the flux rope itself isn't exactly what you see in the sky as the waving bands of the aurora, in case someone perhaps thought that; but maybe you were talking about what the field typically looks like in the Solar wind data, where an idealized flux rope (ESW in this case) would look something like this if you hit it head-on and passed right through the center of it:

Exactly.  I was referring also to the swirling motion visibly evident as the actual ionisation was occurring within the molecules which in and of itself was spellbinding. Hopefully others here have an opportunity to view it themselves some day!  They possibly  will not have depleted our planets precious bodily fluids as much as I have over the years, (petrol) but for me anyway it was well worth the wait.  Mike   Edit:  

the silly “ precious bodily fluids” phrase from before all of your time on earth here.  An old parody movie “Dr Strangelove”. 1960s humour. Mike/Hagrid 

Edited May 13 by hamateur 1953
Peter Sellers