Popular Post Philalethes Posted May 8 Popular Post Share Posted May 8 (edited) This CME warrants a thread of its own at this point. The latest imagery from C2 shows a clear halo, if a bit asymmetric. I think it's safe to say that we're going to register this as it passes our planet. Edited May 11 by Marcel de Bont Renaming 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tniickck Posted May 8 Share Posted May 8 what are your thoughts? i would go with G3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Philalethes Posted May 8 Author Share Posted May 8 20 minutes ago, tniickck said: what are your thoughts? i would go with G3 That sounds like a fair guess to me, but I guess it will boil down to the configuration of the sheath and core. G2 and G3 seem like the most reasonable guesses, but I guess a G4 isn't unthinkable if the rope hits just right; not going to jump on that hype train until we see such a rope hit though, heh. On a different note, since the release of the rope looked fairly "clean" in the SUVI imagery when I first looked at it, I'll try making a prediction based on that: if it does indeed hit us, the rope will be either an ESW or a WSE rope, tilted slightly counterclockwise; definitely expecting that to be wrong, but will be fun to see if it might be possible to get an idea of the configuration under the assumption of the initial one and minimal rotation. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
silverstingray Posted May 8 Share Posted May 8 There are actually 2 CME’s in the SEEDS imaging. The first one is too early (first frame shows it already partially emerged at 03:48:07 utc) to be from the X-flare & it looks like it’ll be a full halo. The 2nd CME, (first frame showing it emerging is at 05:48:07 utc) which I believe is from the X-flare has 2 frames currently available on SEEDS & is emerging from the same spot as the first CME. So my guess is we will get 2 full halo CME’s. Annnnd, while I was typing this, they updated more frames for the 2nd event (now 10 frames) & I am confident there are 2 full halo CME’s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coinpeace Posted May 8 Share Posted May 8 G4. Call me an optimist 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Philalethes Posted May 8 Author Share Posted May 8 13 minutes ago, silverstingray said: There are actually 2 CME’s in the SEEDS imaging. The first one is too early (first frame shows it already partially emerged at 03:48:07 utc) to be from the X-flare & it looks like it’ll be a full halo. The 2nd CME, (first frame showing it emerging is at 05:48:07 utc) which I believe is from the X-flare has 2 frames currently available on SEEDS & is emerging from the same spot as the first CME. So my guess is we will get 2 full halo CME’s. Annnnd, while I was typing this, they updated more frames for the 2nd event (now 10 frames) & I am confident there are 2 full halo CME’s. I saw the first one as well, but I don't think it's worth much of a mention, and I doubt it will hit us at all; I don't really see how you'd make that out to be a full halo, but feel free to elaborate. It's certainly the larger one I made the thread for at least, which was indeed associated with the X-flare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
astrophotolab Posted May 8 Share Posted May 8 just compared this flare with X1.1 flare at 23th March: similar assymetrical full halo but today's one seems a bit weaker. I expect G3 BUT there is too many flares in a last few hours which can cause a long-time geomagnetic activity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Peter Sedlák Posted May 8 Share Posted May 8 I guess G3. Now hoping for no clouds and for nighttime arrival. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maitreya Posted May 8 Share Posted May 8 3 hours ago, Peter Sedlák said: Я думаю, G3. Теперь надеюсь на отсутствие облаков и прибытие ночью. Dear friends, my friend Academician of the Russian Academy of Sciences S.Bogachev released this release about the X-flashes that happened today:"Previously, the arrival of solar masses to the Earth is expected on Saturday, May 11. The possible strength of magnetic storms is estimated as G2-G3." I tend to trust him in this opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted May 8 Share Posted May 8 eh, I need about one or two hours of imagery. ............. Actually, differenced imagery has all I need. I'll go with an arrival time at L1 during the second half of the 10th UTC. G3 may be possible with an earlier arrival. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tigerpaw0723 Posted May 8 Share Posted May 8 (edited) what do the blue ones mean? Edited May 8 by tigerpaw0723 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Warfel Posted May 8 Share Posted May 8 12 minutes ago, tigerpaw0723 said: what do the blue ones mean? Higher energy particles. Usually slower to respond than the lower ones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
silverstingray Posted May 8 Share Posted May 8 (edited) 5 hours ago, Philalethes said: I saw the first one as well, but I don't think it's worth much of a mention, and I doubt it will hit us at all; I don't really see how you'd make that out to be a full halo, but feel free to elaborate. It's certainly the larger one I made the thread for at least, which was indeed associated with the X-flare. I just looked at it with my eyeballs as it was coming out of the sun?? I don’t know how else one would determine if something will produce a halo. 😇 Edited May 8 by silverstingray Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Philalethes Posted May 8 Author Share Posted May 8 5 minutes ago, silverstingray said: I just looked at it with my eyeballs as it was coming out of the sun?? I don’t know how else one would determine if something will produce a halo. 😇 You mean in the LASCO imagery? The first one that you were referring to, before the X1.04 flare, doesn't appear to be a halo eruption at all, though. Here I've drawn a circle around it: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
silverstingray Posted May 8 Share Posted May 8 6 minutes ago, Philalethes said: You mean in the LASCO imagery? The first one that you were referring to, before the X1.04 flare, doesn't appear to be a halo eruption at all, though. Here I've drawn a circle around it: No. I Did state in my original post I was looking at SEEDS. I suppose I could have been more specific & said the differential images in SEEDS. Hey, I might be 100% wrong, I have no issues admitting that. Unfortunately I can’t for the life of me figure out how to make my screenshots from my iPad small enough (kB) to share on here. So I can’t show you what I was looking at. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Philalethes Posted May 8 Author Share Posted May 8 6 minutes ago, silverstingray said: No. I Did state in my original post I was looking at SEEDS. I suppose I could have been more specific & said the differential images in SEEDS. Hey, I might be 100% wrong, I have no issues admitting that. Unfortunately I can’t for the life of me figure out how to make my screenshots from my iPad small enough (kB) to share on here. So I can’t show you what I was looking at. Yeah, I was just wondering if perhaps you were referring to having seen it with your own eyes somehow, heh. I meant in the LASCO imagery in general, including in the differenced imagery at SEEDS. You can always upload images to some other host, but I can look at the SEEDS imagery myself too; I'm assuming you were looking at something akin to this daily movie, right? Seems to me like it's showing more or less the same: It's not until the larger eruption that we get any full halo as far as I can tell at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted May 8 Share Posted May 8 9 minutes ago, Philalethes said: This CME looks to have come a source around 50W40S Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Philalethes Posted May 8 Author Share Posted May 8 4 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said: This CME looks to have come a source around 50W40S Yeah, based on the imagery I'd certainly agree, but there's nothing that looks active in any wavelength near that part of the disc around the time of the eruption as far as I can tell. I suspect it was some smaller preliminary burst from 3664 that went off to the side somehow, but could have been from the other side as well I suppose. In any case it doesn't appear to be a halo to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted May 8 Share Posted May 8 2 minutes ago, Philalethes said: Yeah, based on the imagery I'd certainly agree, but there's nothing that looks active in any wavelength near that part of the disc around the time of the eruption as far as I can tell. I suspect it was some smaller preliminary burst from 3664 that went off to the side somehow, but could have been from the other side as well I suppose. In any case it doesn't appear to be a halo to me. I don't quite know what it came from either, but there was a minor eruption in that area in 171 imagery a little bit east of a filament Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
silverstingray Posted May 8 Share Posted May 8 30 minutes ago, Philalethes said: Yeah, I was just wondering if perhaps you were referring to having seen it with your own eyes somehow, heh. I meant in the LASCO imagery in general, including in the differenced imagery at SEEDS. You can always upload images to some other host, but I can look at the SEEDS imagery myself too; I'm assuming you were looking at something akin to this daily movie, right? Seems to me like it's showing more or less the same: It's not until the larger eruption that we get any full halo as far as I can tell at least. Happy to admit I was wrong. I went back and took a frame by frame look (instead of slow movie) & I think I got a little swindled by a bit that comes out of the south just ahead of the very distinctive front edge of the 2nd CME. Got too excited & thought it was part of the first one. 🤣 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Philalethes Posted May 8 Author Share Posted May 8 10 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said: I don't quite know what it came from either, but there was a minor eruption in that area in 171 imagery a little bit east of a filament Oh yeah, now that you say it I looked at it again, and I do see the slightest of movements there; would be a good fit time-wise as well. 1 minute ago, silverstingray said: I went back and took a frame by frame look (instead of slow movie) & I think I got a little swindled by a bit that comes out of the south just ahead of the very distinctive front edge of the 2nd CME. Got too excited & thought it was part of the first one. 🤣 Luckily we got ourselves a second halo CME after all, after the large one instead, heh. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted May 8 Share Posted May 8 the model run is done Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEAurora Posted May 8 Share Posted May 8 4 minutes ago, MinYoongi said: the model run is done Looks like ENLIL gives a solid impact within the bulk of the CME around 00UTC on Saturday. Looks good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted May 8 Share Posted May 8 Just now, NEAurora said: Looks like ENLIL gives a solid impact within the bulk of the CME around 00UTC on Saturday. Looks good. yes up to g2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maciej Dunst Posted May 8 Share Posted May 8 (edited) I see three CMEs there. One from X1 flare than second around 12 UTC and the third one from long duration M flare around 15 UTC. Edited May 8 by Maciej Dunst 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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