New to this

[owenb0576]

I’m new to all of this. I’ve been trying to see them for almost about a year now and gone up to NY twice without any luck. I would like to learn how to read these charts and know when storms are coming because only problem is I live in NJ and drive up to NY about 3 and a half hours to see them. If anyone has any suggestions or comments please let me know. Thank you. 

[Jesterface23]

There will be some luck involved pretty much ranging from not much geomagnetic activity to the aurora coming to you. You will want to look out for notifications of center-disk Coronal Holes or Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejections. CHs will arrive about 3 days later. CME travel times vary from very fast, traveling from the Sun to Earth in less than a day, to slower CMEs that arrive many days after launching. For geomagnetic activity, typically I'd look for CMEs with a travel time of less than 60 hours.

Looking at the solar wind graphs for geomagnetic activity, you will want high velocities, high density, and a low negative IMF Bz component. CHs will arrive first with a dense CIR and low velocities, then make a gradual transition to higher velocities from a HSS and a lower density. That transition time will be the best chance for geomagnetic activity for CHs. CMEs will arrive  with a shock arrival of increased velocities, speed depending on the travel time, density, and IMF B component total strength. CMEs that take less than a day to arrive are rare, but are what can bring the strongest geomagnetic storms. Noting that the IMF Bz component strength isn't easily forecastable.

For local geomagnetic activity, here is the FRD magnetometer in Fredericksburg, VA, 
https://geomag.usgs.gov/plots/?stations=FRD&channels=H&channels=Y&channels=D&timeRangeType=day

You will want to watch for large fluctuations in the data there. Past events can be looked up there as well with custom search dates.

[owenb0576]

On 4/20/2024 at 2:10 PM, Jesterface23 said:

There will be some luck involved pretty much ranging from not much geomagnetic activity to the aurora coming to you. You will want to look out for notifications of center-disk Coronal Holes or Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejections. CHs will arrive about 3 days later. CME travel times vary from very fast, traveling from the Sun to Earth in less than a day, to slower CMEs that arrive many days after launching. For geomagnetic activity, typically I'd look for CMEs with a travel time of less than 60 hours.

Looking at the solar wind graphs for geomagnetic activity, you will want high velocities, high density, and a low negative IMF Bz component. CHs will arrive first with a dense CIR and low velocities, then make a gradual transition to higher velocities from a HSS and a lower density. That transition time will be the best chance for geomagnetic activity for CHs. CMEs will arrive  with a shock arrival of increased velocities, speed depending on the travel time, density, and IMF B component total strength. CMEs that take less than a day to arrive are rare, but are what can bring the strongest geomagnetic storms. Noting that the IMF Bz component strength isn't easily forecastable.

For local geomagnetic activity, here is the FRD magnetometer in Fredericksburg, VA, 
https://geomag.usgs.gov/plots/?stations=FRD&channels=H&channels=Y&channels=D&timeRangeType=day

You will want to watch for large fluctuations in the data there. Past events can be looked up there as well with custom search dates.

Thank you! Now is there a website to see when the expected arrival for a cme to hit earth? I’ve found this link but don’t know how accurate it is. 

[Vancanneyt Sander]

59 minuten geleden, owenb0576 zei:

Thank you! Now is there a website to see when the expected arrival for a cme to hit earth? I’ve found this link but don’t know how accurate it is. 

No prediction is accurate 😜 there will always be an uncertainty in any prediction of plus and minus 6 hours of the predicted arrival times and even then it can defer a lot. 
the link you’ve mentioned is for scientific use and is experimental where several forecasters input their forecast. It can give you a hint of a possible arrival time but as always:  CME arrivals are a waiting game as predictions have a big uncertainty.

[owenb0576]

1 hour ago, Vancanneyt Sander said:

No prediction is accurate 😜 there will always be an uncertainty in any prediction of plus and minus 6 hours of the predicted arrival times and even then it can defer a lot. 
the link you’ve mentioned is for scientific use and is experimental where several forecasters input their forecast. It can give you a hint of a possible arrival time but as always:  CME arrivals are a waiting game as predictions have a big uncertainty.

Thank you. One more thing what are C,M,and X class flares along with the number provided ex. M1.6. Do those types of flares produce the auroras?

[Jesterface23]

12 minutes ago, owenb0576 said:

One more thing what are C,M,and X class flares along with the number provided ex. M1.6. Do those types of flares produce the auroras?

Solar flares don't produce geomagnetic storms/auroras. CMEs have a chance of launching during a solar flare. Once SOHO LASCO C3 coronagraph imagery is available we can see if a CME did launch, and if one did, begin forecasts to see how fast the CME is and if it has an Earth directed component.

[NEAurora]

On 4/20/2024 at 12:11 PM, owenb0576 said:

I’m new to all of this. I’ve been trying to see them for almost about a year now and gone up to NY twice without any luck. I would like to learn how to read these charts and know when storms are coming because only problem is I live in NJ and drive up to NY about 3 and a half hours to see them. If anyone has any suggestions or comments please let me know. Thank you. 

 

Solar Flares / CMEs can give you maybe 2-4 days advance notice of a possible geomagnetic storm, but it's pretty uncertain.  X-flares are generally the most exciting, but we've gotten pretty good CMEs from long-duration C class flares.  Also, sometimes X-flares don't produce CMEs ... just ask anyone here how they feel about the "strongest flare" of the current solar cycle 😄 if you want to hear more about that.  Regardless, for anything beyond an inaccurate 3-day warning, don't look to solar-flares for aurora forecasts.

 

For upstate NY (assuming that you're north of I90 with limited light pollution and clear skies), here is a rough guide what to look for.  Look at the Real Time Solar Wind (https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/real-time-solar-wind) and specifically the Bt/Bz plot at the top.  A general guide would be a Bt value of 10+ with a Bz of -8 or lower for aurora showing up in photos, Bt 15+ with Bz -12 or lower for naked eye visibility.  It is generally more active if the solar wind speed is higher too, maybe 600+, but really the Bt/Bz plot is the most important.  Related, but maybe a little easier to read is the realtime auroral oval model (https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/aurora-30-minute-forecast).  Generally, an HPI greater than 75 is worth going out for. (number shown in the corner of the images).  The advantage of these products is that they provide about 1 hour or so of lead time.

Also, as Jesterface says, lots of luck is involved, and lots of practice/experience to help get a general sense how to interpret all of the different data.